Examining the Globalization-Economic Complexity-Financial Development Nexus in Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 27, 485 - 499, 29.11.2022

Alper Karasoy

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1164750

Cited By: 2

Öz

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to examine the globalization-financial development-economic complexity link in Turkey for the period 1970-2017.
Design/Methodology: In the first stage of the analysis, a tri-variate model is proposed. In the second stage, cointegration and Granger causality tests that have single Fourier-frequency functions in their testing equations are employed to examine causal links among the employed variables.
Findings: The main findings indicate that (i) globalization and political globalization both indirectly (through financial development) and directly cause economic complexity; (ii) economic globalization indirectly causes economic complexity through financial development; (iii) social globalization and financial development directly cause economic complexity; (iv) bi-directional causality exists between globalization and financial development. These findings reveal that globalization is crucial for economic complexity. Also, ignoring the intermediating and direct roles of financial development in promoting Turkey’s economic complexity can be problematic.
Limitations: This study focuses only on Turkey. Further research can focus on other emerging markets to confirm if similar causalities exist.
Originality/Value: By using cointegration and causality tests that have Fourier-components, this study accounts for the possible effects of structural changes. Additionally, this study considers sub-indices of globalization and their causal links with financial development and economic complexity. Lastly, although financial development-economic complexity link and globalization-economic complexity nexus were separately investigated in some studies, these studies used bi-variate models. This study proposes a tri-variate model to examine cointegration and causalities among these variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, Economic Complexity, Financial Development, Causality Analysis, Turkey

Türkiye’deki Küreselleşme-Ekonomik Kompleksite-Finansal Kalkınma İlişkisinin İncelenmesi

Öz

Amaç: Bu araştırmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki küreselleşme-finansal kalkınma-ekonomik kompleksite ilişkisini 1970-2017 dönemi için incelemektir.
Tasarım/Yöntem: Analizin birinci basamağında, üç değişkenli bir model oluşturulmuştur. Analizin ikinci aşamasında, test denklemlerinde tek Fourier-frekanslı fonksiyonlar barındıran koentegrasyon ve Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılarak seçilmiş değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir.
Bulgular: Araştırmanın ana bulguları şunlardır: (i) küreselleşme ve politik küreselleşme hem doğrudan hem de dolaylı olarak finansal kalkınma üzerinden ekonomik kompleksiteye neden olmaktadır; (ii) ekonomik küreselleşme, finansal kalkınma üzerinden ekonomik kompleksiteye neden olmaktadır; (iii) hem sosyal küreselleşme hem de finansal kalkınma doğrudan ekonomik kompleksiteye neden olmaktadır; (iv) küreselleşme ve finansal kalkınma arasında iki yönlü nedensellik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgular, küreselleşmenin ekonomik kompleksite için kritik bir öneme sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca finansal kalkınmanın Türkiye’nin ekonomik kompleksitesi üzerindeki doğrudan ve dolaylı etkilerinin göz ardı edilmesi, sorunlar yaratabilir.
Sınırlılıklar: Bu araştırmada sadece Türkiye üzerine odaklanılmıştır. Gelecekte yapılacak çalışmalarda diğer kalkınmakta olan ülkeler incelenerek benzer nedenselliklerin bu ülkelerde de geçerli olup olmadığı değerlendirilebilir.
Özgünlük/Değer: Bu araştırmada yapısal kırılmaların olası etkileri Fourier-bileşenli koentegrasyon ve nedensellik testleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmişlerdir. Ayrıca, bu araştırmada küreselleşmenin alt-indeksleri de dikkate alınarak bu indekslerin finansal kalkınma ve ekonomik kompleksiteyle olan nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Son olarak her ne kadar literatürdeki bazı çalışmalarda finansal kalkınma-ekonomik kompleksite ve küreselleşme-ekonomik kompleksite ilişkileri incelenmiş olsa da bu incelemeler genellikle iki değişkenli modeller üzerinden yapılmıştır. Bu araştırmada üç değişkenli bir model üzerinden eş-bütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, Ekonomik Kompleksite, Finansal Kalkınma, Nedensellik Analizi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

• Ahmad, M. (2019). Globalisation, Economic Growth, and Spillovers: A Spatial Analysis. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 13(3), 255–276. https://doi.org/10.1177/2347631119841257
• Antonietti, R., & Franco, C. (2021). From FDI to economic complexity: a panel Granger causality analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 225–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.11.001
• Bucak, Ç. (2022). BRICS-T Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Karmaşıklık ve Küreselleşme İlişkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 14(26), 92–105. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1069570
• Can, M. (2016). Ekonomik Küreselleşme Sofistike Mamül Üretimini Etkiler mi? : Güney Kore Örnekleminde Ampirik Bir Analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(3), 21–38. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.272210
• Can, M., & Doğan, B. (2018). Ekonomik Kompleksite ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi : Türkiye Örnekleminde Ampirik Bir Analiz. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar 2018, 55(638), 5–16. http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr/files/articles/1529399025.pdf
• Chu, L. K. (2020). The effects of financial development on economic sophistication: evidence from panel data. Applied Economics Letters, 27(15), 1260–1263. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2019.1676866
• Daude, C., Nagengast, A., & Perea, J. R. (2016). Productive capabilities: An empirical analysis of their drivers. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25(4), 504–535. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2015.1073342
• Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091–1110. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500392078
• Enders, W., & Jones, P. (2016). Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 20(4), 399–419. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2014-0101
• Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012a). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey-Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
• Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012b). A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00662.x
• Ghoshray, A., Mendoza, Y., Monfort, M., & Ordoñez, J. (2018). Re-assessing causality between energy consumption and economic growth. PLOS ONE, 13(11), e0205671. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205671
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. In National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series (No. 3914; National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series). https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914
• Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J.-E. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14(3), 543–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09344-2
• Hartman, D. (2013). A global comparative perspective on innovation and economic diversification in Turkey. In İstanbul Policy Center (pp. 1–28). Istanbul Policy Center (IPC).
• Hartmann, D., Guevara, M. R., Jara-Figueroa, C., Aristarán, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality. World Development, 93, 75–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.12.020
• Hatzichronoglou, T. (1996). Globalisation and Competitiveness: Relevant Indicators. In OECD Science (1996/05; OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1787/18151965
• Hausmann, R., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2011). The network structure of economic output. Journal of Economic Growth, 16(4), 309–342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9071-4
• Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2014). The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity. The MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9647.001.0001
• Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (Vol. 106, Issue 26). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106
• Kandil, M., Shahbaz, M., & Nasreen, S. (2015). The interaction between globalization and financial development: new evidence from panel cointegration and causality analysis. Empirical Economics, 49(4), 1317–1339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0922-2
• Khan, H., Khan, U., & Khan, M. A. (2020). Causal Nexus between Economic Complexity and FDI: Empirical Evidence from Time Series Analysis. The Chinese Economy, 53(5), 374–394. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1730554
• KOF Swiss Economic Institute. (2020). KOF Globalisation Index. https://www.kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html
• Kurt, Ü. (2018). Küreselleşme ve Ekonomik Kompleksite İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 11(3), 2195–2202. https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsosbil.454395
• Kurt, Ü., & Azazi, H. (2018). Finansal Gelişme ve Sofistike Ürün Üretimi İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Journal of Turkish Studies, 13(22), 341–352. https://doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.13993
• Lapatinas, A. (2019). The effect of the Internet on economic sophistication: An empirical analysis. Economics Letters, 174, 35–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.10.013
• Law, S. H., Azman-Saini, W. N. W., & Tan, H. B. (2014). Economic Globalization and Financial Development in East Asia: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(1), 210–225. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X500112
• Mishkin, F. S. (2009). Globalization and financial development. Journal of Development Economics, 89(2), 164–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.11.004
• Muye, I. M., & Muye, I. Y. (2017). Testing for causality among globalization, institution and financial development: Further evidence from three economic blocs. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(2), 117–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2016.10.001
• Nguyen, C. P., Schinckus, C., & Su, T. D. (2020). The drivers of economic complexity: International evidence from financial development and patents. International Economics, 164(June), 140–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.09.004
• Nguyen, C. P., & Su, T. D. (2021). Financing the economy: The multidimensional influences of financial development on economic complexity. Journal of International Development, 33(4), 644–684. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3541
• OEC. (2021a). OEC - Economic Complexity Ranking of Countries. The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). https://legacy.oec.world/en/rankings/country/eci/?year_range=1968-1972
• OEC. (2021b). OEC - The Observatory of Economic Complexity. https://oec.world/en/resources/methods#eci
• Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
• Şahin, D., & Durmuş, S. (2020). Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkelerde Ekonomik Kompleksite Düzeyinin Belirleyicileri. Ordu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(2), 334–351. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1206425
• Şeker, A., & Şimdi, H. (2019). The Relationship Between Economic Complexity Index and Export: the Case of Turkey and Central Asian and Turkic Republics. Economy of Region, 15(3), 659–669. https://doi.org/10.17059/2019-3-3
• Şeker, Ayberk. (2019). Teknolojik Gelişme ve Yüksek Teknoloji İhracatının Ekonomik Karmaşıklık Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(2), 377–395. https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.581397
• Sweet, C., & Eterovic, D. (2019). Do patent rights matter? 40 years of innovation, complexity and productivity. World Development, 115, 78–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.10.009
• TCMB. (2002). The Impact of Globalization on the Turkish Economy. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/16555e2a-dfcb-4e4b-9ef9-ec2797f3f2d8/global.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-16555e2a-dfcb-4e4b-9ef9-ec2797f3f2d8-m3fBaj8
• Tsong, C.-C., Lee, C.-F., Tsai, L.-J., & Hu, T.-C. (2016). The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
• Uçar, M., Soyyiğit, S., & Nişancı, M. (2019). Ülkelerin İktisadi Gelişmişlik ve İktisadi Karmaşıklık Düzeyleri Arasındaki İlişki: G8 Ülkeleri Örneği. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 138–148. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/cumuiibf/issue/45599/524670
• World Bank. (2020). World Development Indicators. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx
• Yu, Y., & Qayyum, M. (2021). Impacts of financial openness on economic complexity: Cross‐country evidence. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2491