Hava Taşımacılığı Talebinin Çevresel Bozulma Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 33, 1077 - 1093, 09.12.2025

Eda Dineri , Merve Güngör Parlakyiğit

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1655831

Öz

Amaç: Çalışmanın amacı, 1997-2018 yılları arasında dünya CO2 emisyonlarının 2/3'ünü oluşturan ilk 18 ülkenin hava taşımacılığı talebinin CO2 ve GHG emisyonlarına olan etkisini panel veri analizi yöntemiyle incelemektir.

Tasarım/Yöntem: Çalışmada uzun dönem katsayı tahminleri PMG- ARDL yöntemi ile elde edilmekte, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü D-H nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmektedir. .

Bulgular: Analiz bulguları, yenilenebilir enerji ve kentsel nüfusun hem CO2 emisyonları hem de GHG emisyonları üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu, ekonomik büyüme, enerji yoğunluğu, hava yolcu ve hava yük taşımacılığının ise pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Sınırlılıklar: Panel veri analizinde yer alan ülkelerin tamamı için aynı dönem verilere ulaşılamadığı için ortak dönem olarak 1997-2018 dönemleri ele alınmıştır.

Özgünlük/Değer: Çalışma, dünya CO₂ emisyonlarının üçte ikisinden (2/3) sorumlu ilk 18 ülkeyi kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada, CO₂ emisyonlarının yanı sıra, çevresel etkinin daha geniş bir çerçevede değerlendirebilmesi amacıyla toplam sera gazı emisyonları değişkeni bağımlı değişken olarak ayrı bir modelde analize dahil edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hava Taşımacılıığı Talebi , STIRPAT Modeli , Yenilenebilir Enerji , Çevresel Bozulma , Çevresel Sürdürülebilirlik

Kaynakça

• Ahmad, W., & Majeed, M. T. (2019). The impact of renewable energy on carbon dioxide emissions: An empirical analysis of selected South Asian countries. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 9(4), 527-534. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/the-impact-of-renewable-energy-on-carbondioxide-emissions-an-empirical-analysis-of-selected-south-asian-countries
• Ahmed, M., Shuai, C., & Ahmed, M. (2023). Analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions trend in China, India, the USA, and Russia. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 20(3), 2683-2698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-022-04159-y
• Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) (2021). Aviation Beyond Orders. Erişim Tarihi: 10.01.2023.
• Arvin, M. B., Pradhan, R. P., & Norman, N. R. (2015). Transportation intensity, urbanization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in the G-20 countries. Utilities Policy, 35, 50-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2015.07.003
• Baker, D., Merkert, R., & Kamruzzaman, M. (2015). Regional aviation and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Australia. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 140-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.02.001
• Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Bekun, F. V., & Adedoyin, F. F. (2021). The asymmetric impact of air transport on economic growth in Spain: fresh evidence from the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(4), 503-519. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1720624
• Baxter, G., Srisaeng, P., & Wild, G. (2018). Sustainable airport energy management: The case of Kansai international airport. International Journal for Traffic & Transport Engineering, 8(3). http://dx.doi.org/10.7708/ijtte.2018.8(3).07
• Bekun, F. V., Gyamfi, B. A., Etokakpan, M. U., & Çakir, B. (2023). Revisiting the pollution haven hypothesis within the context of the environmental Kuznets curve. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 17(6), 1210-1231. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-12-2020-0013
• Benjamin, A. A. (2022). Retraction Note: Air transport and rail transport impact on environment: evidence from India, China, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and Russia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 32959-32966. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18575-7
• Brida, J. G., Monterubbianesi, P. D., & Zapata-Aguirre, S. (2018). Exploring causality between economic growth and air transport demand for Argentina and Uruguay. World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 7(4), 310-329. https://doi.org/10.1504/WRITR.2018.095256
• CO₂ emissions from aviation, 2018. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-emissions-aviation Erişim Tarihi: 10.01.2023
• Demir, A. S. (2022). Modeling and forecasting of CO2 emissions resulting from air transport with genetic algorithms: the United Kingdom case. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 150, 777-785. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04203-4
• Dietz, T., & Rosa, E. A. (1997). Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 94(1), 175-179. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.1.175
• Dogan, E., Ulucak, R., Kocak, E., & Isik, C. (2020). The use of ecological footprint in estimating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for BRICST by considering cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. Science of the Total Environment, 723, 138063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138063
• Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
• Dursun, E. (2022). The Nexus among civil aviation, energy performance efficiency and GDP in terms of ecological footprint: Evidence from France and Finland. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(5), 243-251. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13399
• Ehrlich, P. R., & Holdren, J. P. (1971). Impact of population growth. Science, 171(3977), 1212-1217. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1731166
• European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). (2022). European Aviation Environmental Report. Erişim Tarihi: 10.01.2023.
• Erdogan, S., Gedikli, A., Cevik, E. I., & Erdogan, F. (2022). Eco-friendly technologies, international tourism and carbon emissions: Evidence from the most visited countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 180, 121705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121705
• Erdogan, S., Adedoyin, F. F., Bekun, F. V., & Sarkodie, S. A. (2020). Testing the transport-induced environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of air and railway transport. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89, 101935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101935
• Falk, M. T., & Hagsten, E. (2021). Determinants of CO2 emissions generated by air travel vary across reasons for the trip. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 22969–22980. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12219-4
• Gershon, O., Asafo, J. K., Nyarko-Asomani, A., & Koranteng, E. F. (2024). Investigating the nexus of energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions in selected African countries. Energy Strategy Reviews, 51, 101269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101269
• Gössling, S., & Humpe, A. (2020). The global scale, distribution and growth of aviation: Implications for climate change. Global Environmental Change, 65, 102194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102194
• Graver, B., Zhang, K., & Rutherford, D. (2019). Emissions from commercial aviation, 2018. International Council on Clean Transportation. https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_CO2-commercl-aviation2018_20190918.pdf
• Guo, J., Zhou, Y., Ali, S., Shahzad, U., & Cui, L. (2021). Exploring the role of green innovation and investment in energy for environmental quality: An empirical appraisal from provincial data of China. Journal of Environmental Management, 292, 112779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112779
• Gyamfi, B. A., Bekun, F. V., Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Onifade, S. T., & Ampomah, A. B. (2022). Beyond the environmental Kuznets curve: Do combined impacts of air transport and rail transport matter for environmental sustainability amidst energy use in E7 economies? Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 11852-11870. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01944-6
• Habib, Y., Xia, E., Hashmi, S. H., & Yousaf, A. U. (2022). Testing the heterogeneous effect of air transport intensity on CO2 emissions in G20 countries: An advanced empirical analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(29), 44020-44041. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18904-w
• Hassan, S. A., Nosheen, M., Rafaz, N., & Haq, I. (2021). Exploring the existence of aviation Kuznets curve in the context of environmental pollution for OECD nations. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23, 15266-15289. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01297-0
• Hou, S., Chen, X., & Qiu, R. (2022). Sustainable biofuel consumption in air passenger transport driven by carbon-tax policy. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 31, 478-491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2022.03.016
• Hu, Y., Xiao, J., Deng, Y., Xiao, Y., & Wang, S. (2015). Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models. Journal of Air Transport Management, 42, 95-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.09.003
• Huang, Z., & Ren, X. (2024). Impact of natural resources, resilient economic growth, and energy consumption on CO2 emissions. Resources Policy, 90, 104714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104714
• International Air Transport Association (IATA). (2021). Our Commitment to Fly Net Zero by 2050. https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/flynetzero/
• IATA Releases Strategic Roadmaps to Showcase Critical Steps to Reach Net Zero by 2050. https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2023-releases/2023-06-04-03/
• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022, Mar 8). Global CO2 emissions rebounded to their highest level in history in 2021. https://www.iea.org/news/global-co2-emissions-rebounded-to-theirhighest-level-in-history-in-2021
• Javanmard, M. E., Tang, Y., & Martínez-Hernández, J. A. (2024). Forecasting air transportation demand and its impacts on energy consumption and emission. Applied Energy, 364, 123031. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123031
• Jovanović, M., & Vračarević, B. (2016). Challenges ahead: mitigating air transport carbon emissions. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 25(5), 1975-1984. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/62700
• Kaya, G., & Kayalıca, Ö. (2022). Aviation-caused CO2 emissions reduction efficiency in EU-28 under CORSIA compliance. Akıllı Ulaşım Sistemleri ve Uygulamaları Dergisi, 5(2), 33-52. https://doi.org/10.51513/jitsa.1164739
• Krenek, A., & Schratzenstaller, M. (2016). Sustainability-oriented EU Taxes: The Example of a European Carbon-based Flight Ticket Tax. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-120832
• Köves, A., & Bajmócy, Z. (2022). The end of business-as-usual? – A critical review of the air transport industry’s climate strategy for 2050 from the perspectives of Degrowth. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 29(1), 228–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.10.010
• Lam, L. P., Martini, G., Porta, F., & Scotti, D. (2020). The determinants of CO2 emissions of air transport passenger traffic: An analysis of Lombardy (Italy). Transport Policy, 91, 108–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.11.010
• Lee, D. S., Fahey, D. W., Skowron, A., Allen, M. R., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., ... & Wilcox, L. J. (2021). The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018. Atmospheric Environment, 244, 117834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834
• Li, F., Li, F., Cai, B., & Lv, C. (2022). Mapping carbon emissions of China's domestic air passenger transport: From individual cities to intercity networks. Science of The Total Environment, 851, 158199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158199
• Lu, W. C. (2020). The interplay among ecological footprint, real income, energy consumption, and trade openness in 13 Asian countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(36), 45148-45160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10399-7
• Mayor, K., & Tol, R. S. (2010). The impact of European climate change regulations on international tourist markets. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 15(1), 26-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2009.07.003
• Miller, C. A. (2021). Savings in per-passenger CO2 emissions using rail rather than air travel in the northeastern U.S. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 71(12), 1458-1471. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2020.1837996
• Nenavath, S. (2023). Does transportation infrastructure impact economic growth in India? Journal of Facilities Management, 21(1), 1-15. https://www.emerald.com/insight/1472-5967.htm
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
• Pesaran, M. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
• Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 1421, 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
• Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
• Raihan, A., Voumik, L. C., Akter, S., Ridzuan, A. R., Fahlevi, M., Aljuaid, M., & Saniuk, S. (2024). Taking flight: Exploring the relationship between air transport and Malaysian economic growth. Journal of Air Transport Management, 115, 102540. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102540
• Renewables 2024 Analysis and Forecast to 2030. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2024
• Saikawa, E., Kim, H., Zhong, M., Avramov, A., Zhao, Y., Janssens-Maenhout, G., ... & Zhang, Q. (2017). Comparison of emissions inventories of anthropogenic air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(10), 6393-6421. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6393-2017
• Sarfraz, M., Naseem, S., & Mohsin, M. (2022). Adoption of renewable energy, natural resources with conversion information communication technologies and environmental mitigation: Evidence from G-7 countries. Energy Reports, 8, 11101-11111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.08.248
• Sarkodie, S. A., Owusu, P. A., & Leirvik, T. (2020). Global effect of urban sprawl, industrialization, trade and economic development on carbon dioxide emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7640
• Sgouridis, S., Bonnefoy, P. A., & Hansman, R. J. (2011). Air transportation in a carbon constrained world: Long-term dynamics of policies and strategies for mitigating the carbon footprint of commercial aviation. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 45(10), 1077-1091. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2010.03.019
• Sharif, A., Raza, S. A., Ozturk, I., & Afshan, S. (2019). The dynamic relationship of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption with carbon emission: a global study with the application of heterogeneous panel estimations. Renewable Energy, 133, 685-691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.10.052
• Stern, D. I. (2017). The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years. Journal of Bioeconomics, 19, 7-28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10818-017-9243-1
• Tarr, A. P., Smith, I. J., & Rodger, C. J. (2022). Carbon dioxide emissions from international air transport of people and freight: New Zealand as a case study. Environmental Research Communications, 4(7), 075012. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abf15d
• The International Council on Clean Transportation (2020). CO2 emissions from commercial aviation: 2013, 2018, and 2019. https://theicct.org/ . Erişim Tarihi: 01.10.2024
• Trevisan, L., & Bordignon, M. (2020). Screening Life Cycle Assessment to compare CO2 and Greenhouse Gases emissions of air, road, and rail transport: An exploratory study. Procedia CIRP, 90, 303-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2020.01.100
• Verbič, M., Satrovic, E., & Muslija, A. (2021). Environmental Kuznets curve in Southeastern Europe: the role of urbanization and energy consumption. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(41), 57807-57817. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14732-6
• World Economic Forum. (2024, Nov 15). What is the G20 and why does it matter? https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/11/g20-summit-what-you-need-to-know/
• Westerlund, J. (2005). New simple tests for panel cointegration. Econometric Reviews, 24(3), 297-316. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930500243019
• Xu, B., & Lin, B. (2015). Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China's transport sector: a dynamic VAR approach. Energy, 83, 486-495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.052
• Yildiz, O. F., Yilmaz, M., & Celik, A. (2022). Reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of HVAC system in airport terminal buildings. Building and Environment, 208, 108632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.108632
• Zhang, Y., & Cheng, L. (2023). The role of transport infrastructure in economic growth: Empirical evidence in the UK. Transport Policy, 133, 223-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.01.017
• Zhang, C., & Nian, J. (2013). Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China. Energy Policy, 63, 918-926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.142
• Zhang, H., Razzaq, A., Pelit, I., & Irmak, E. (2022). Does freight and passenger transportation industries are sustainable in BRICS countries? Evidence from advanced panel estimations. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 3690-3710. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.2002708