Evaluating Safety Training's Role in Reducing Construction Accidents: Poisson and Weibull Model Analysis

Öz

This study examines how safety training affects both the frequency of workplace accidents and the duration of accident-free intervals in high-risk construction settings. Based on a 36-month dataset from six major firms, workers were divided into four groups according to training type: specialized, general, informal, or none. Using a combined methodological approach—Poisson regression, multivariate Poisson modeling, and Weibull survival analysis—the study quantifies the impact of training on both the likelihood and timing of accidents. Specialized training was associated with up to a 50% reduction in accident frequency and nearly doubled the length of safe intervals (k < 1), particularly in high-rise construction projects. General training showed moderate effects, while informal or absent training had minimal impact, with hazard rates remaining stable or rising. Drawing on Heinrich’s Safety Pyramid and Reason’s Swiss Cheese Model, and validated through AIC, BIC, and likelihood ratio tests, the findings suggest that structured safety programs lead to meaningful, lasting behavioral change. The study advocates for task-specific, technology-enhanced training—such as virtual reality and wearables—as essential components of modern safety strategies in complex construction environments.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Construction Safety
• Survival Analysis
• Safety Training
• Accident Reduction
• Statistical Modeling

İnşaat Kazalarının Azaltılmasında Güvenlik Eğitiminin Rolünün Değerlendirilmesi: Poisson ve Weibull Model Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, güvenlik eğitiminin yüksek riskli inşaat ortamlarında iş kazalarının sıklığı ve kazasız geçen süreler üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Altı büyük inşaat firmasından 36 aylık bir veri setine dayanarak, işçiler aldıkları eğitim türüne göre dört gruba ayrılmıştır: uzmanlaşmış, genel, gayri resmi ve hiç eğitim almayanlar. Poisson regresyonu, çok değişkenli Poisson modellemesi ve Weibull sağkalım analizi gibi birleşik bir metodolojik yaklaşım kullanılarak, eğitimin kazaların olasılığı ve zamanlaması üzerindeki etkisi nicel olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Uzmanlaşmış eğitim, özellikle yüksek katlı inşaat projelerinde olmak üzere, kaza sıklığında %50’ye varan bir azalma ve kazasız geçen sürelerde neredeyse iki kat artış (k < 1) ile ilişkilendirilmiştir. Genel eğitim orta düzeyde fayda sağlarken, gayri resmi veya hiç eğitim almayan gruplarda anlamlı bir iyileşme gözlenmemiş; bu gruplarda tehlike oranları sabit kalmış ya da artmıştır. Heinrich’in Güvenlik Piramidi ve Reason’ın İsviçre Peyniri Modeli gibi davranışsal güvenlik kuramlarına dayanan ve AIC, BIC ve olabilirlik oranı testleriyle doğrulanan bulgular, yapılandırılmış güvenlik programlarının anlamlı ve kalıcı davranış değişiklikleri sağladığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, görev odaklı ve teknoloji destekli eğitimlerin—örneğin sanal gerçeklik uygulamaları ve giyilebilir güvenlik sistemleri—karmaşık inşaat ortamlarında modern güvenlik stratejilerinin vazgeçilmez bir parçası olması gerektiğini savunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İnşaat Güvenliği
• Güvenlik Eğitimi
• Kaza Azaltma
• İstatistiksel Modelleme
• Sağkalım Analizi

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