Amerika Birleşik Devletleri-İran İlişkileri: Trump Etkisi

Yıl 2023, , 275 - 295, 29.09.2023

Emirhan Kaya

https://doi.org/10.53306/klujfeas.1329020

Öz

Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) ile İran arasında süregelen düşmanlığa rağmen, 2015 yılında Barack Obama’nın başkanlığı döneminde imzalanan nükleer anlaşma, ikili ilişkileri onarma potansiyeli taşıyan bir dönüm noktası olmuştur. Öte yandan, Başkan Donald Trump’ın 2018’de anlaşmadan çekilme kararı alması, pek çok kişinin ikili ilişkilerin istikrara kavuşması ve nükleer tehdidin kontrol altına alınması konusundaki umutlarını yıkmıştır. Son zamanlarda, güç kullanma hâlâ çekici bir seçenek olsa da, Başkan Joe Biden’ın İran ile yeniden angajmana girme olasılığı sorgulanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda makale, sırasıyla Obama, Trump ve Biden’ın başkanlıkları sırasındaki ABD-İran ilişkilerine ışık tutacaktır. Böylece, son dönemde ikili ilişkilerdeki dalgalanma karşılaştırmalı bir bakış açısıyla anlaşılacaktır. Trump’ın İran karşıtı stratejisinin ikili ilişkileri çıkmaza soktuğu ve dış politika mirasının, Obama ve Biden yönetimlerinin İran ile uzlaşma çabalarının önüne geçtiği ileri sürülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, İran, Dış Politika, Yaptırımlar, Nükleer Anlaşma.

United States-Iran Relations: The Trump Impact

Öz

In spite of the ongoing enmity between the United States (U.S.) and Iran, the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal during the Presidency of Barack Obama was a turning point that had a potential to repair the bilateral relations. On the other hand, President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the deal in 2018 dashed hopes of many for the stabilization of bilateral relations as well as the containment of the nuclear threat. Recently, President Joe Biden’s potential reengagement with Iran is being questioned, even though the use force might still be an attractive choice. In that context, the article will shed light on the U.S.-Iran relations during the Presidencies of Obama, Trump and Biden respectively. Thus, the fluctuation in recent bilateral relations will be understood from a comparative perspective. It is argued that the anti-Iran strategy of Trump pushed the bilateral relations into a stalemate and his foreign policy legacy prevailed over the efforts to reconcile with Iran by both Obama and Biden administrations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The United States of America, Iran, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Nuclear Deal

Kaynakça

• Albright, D. & Stricker, A. (2015). Iran’s Nuclear Program, United States Institute of Peace, https://iranprimer.usip.org/sites/default/files/Nuclear_Albright%20and%20Stricker_Nuclear%20Program%202015.pdf.
• Alcaro, R. (2021). Europe’s Defence of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Less than a Success, More than a Failure, The International Spectator, 56(1), 55-72. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2021.1876861
• Al Jazeera. (2018). Iran’s Currency Plunges to Record Low as US Sanctions Loom, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2018/7/29/irans-currency-plunges-to-record-low-as-us-sanctions-loom.
• Al Jazeera. (2022). Mahsa Amini Protests: US Sanctions Iran’s Morality Police, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/22/mahsa-amini-protests-us-sanctions-irans-morality-police.
• Allison, G. (2015). Iran Already has Nuclear Weapons Capability, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Events. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/iran-already-has-nuclear-weapons-capability.
• Amies, N. (2018). The Consequences of the 1979 Hostage Crises Still Echo, Avery Elizabeth Hurt (Ed.), US-Iran Relations (p. 59-64). Greenhaven Publishing. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=YHtmDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA92&hl=tr&source=gbs_selected_pages&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false.
• Azad, S. (2022). East Asia and Iran Sanctions: Assistance, Abandonment, and Everything in Between. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• BBC News. (2018). Iran Military Parade Attacked by Gunmen in Ahvaz, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45611411.
• BBC News. (2019). Iran Oil: US to End Sanctions Exemptions for Major Importers, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48011496.
• Berger, M. (2021). Iran Cheers U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan – but Fears What Could Follow. The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/10/iran-taliban-afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal/.
• Bergman, R., Gladstone, R. & Fassihi, F. (2021). Blackout Hits Iran Nuclear Site in What Appears to be Israeli Sabotage, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/11/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-natanz.html.
• Brannon, S. (1994). Pillars, Petroleum and Power: The United States in the Gulf, The Arab Studies Journal, 2(1), 4 – 10. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27933629.
• CNBC (2018). Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz if US Blocks Oil Exports, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/iranian-president-hassan-rouhani-threatens-to-close-strait-of-hormuz.html.
• Council on Foreign Relations. (2019). The Presidential Candidates on the Iran Nuclear Deal, https://www.cfr.org/article/presidential-candidates-iran-nuclear-deal.
• Cronberg, T. (2017). No EU, No Iran Deal: The EU’s Choice between Multilateralism and the Transatlantic Link, Nonproliferation Review, 24(3-4), 243-259. https://doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2018.1432321
• Czornik, K. (2022). New Accents in the U.S.-Iran Relations. The Perspective of Joe Biden Administration, Stosunki Międzynarodowe–International Relations, 2(12). https://doi.org/10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17473.1
• Çelik, Y. (2022). An Overview of China-Iran Relations and Its Impact on Central Asia, Asya Araştırmaları Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 103-114. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2350-993X
• Davis, J. (2019). Trump’s World: Peril and Opportunity in US Foreign Policy after Obama. Lanham: Lexington Books.
• Dudlák, T. (2018). After the Sanctions: Policy Challenges in Transition to a New Political Economy of the Iranian Oil and Gas Sectors, Energy Policy, 121, 464-475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.034
• Edelman, E. S., Krepinevich, A. F. & Montgomery, E. B. (2011). The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment, Foreign Affairs, 90(1). https://www.jstor.org/stable/25800382.
• Ehteshami, A. (2002). The Foreign Policy of Iran. In Hinnebusch R. & Ehteshami, A. (Ed.) The Foreign Policies of Middle East States (283-310). Lynne Rienner. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=OOGTyh675JYC&printsec=frontcover&hl=tr&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false.
• Ehteshami, A. (2007). Iran’s Politics and Regional Relations: Post-détente, Perceptions, 12(1), 29-44. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/816548.
• Entessar, N. & Afrasiabi, K. L. (2020). Trump and Iran: From Containment to Confrontation. Lanham: Lexington Books.
• Fawcett, L. & Payne, A. (2022). Stuck on a Hostile Path? US Policy towards Iran Since the Revolution, Contemporary Politics, https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2022.2029239
• Gallup (2018). Americans’ Views of the United States’ Greatest Enemy (Trends), https://news.gallup.com/poll/227906/americans-views-united-states-greatest-enemy-trends.aspx.
• Garamone, J. (2019). Iran Shoots down U.S. Global Hawk Operating in International Space, U.S. Department of Defense, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1882497/iran-shoots-down-us-global-hawk-operating-in-international-airspace/.
• Guzansky, Y. (2015). The Arab Gulf States and Reform in the Middle East: Between Iran and the ‘Arab Spring’. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Harris, G. (2015). ‘Every Pathway to a Nuclear Weapon is Cut Off’ Obama Says, The New York Times, https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/live/iran-nuclear-deal-live-updates/obama-says-every-pathway-to-a-nuclear-weapon-is-cut-off/.
• Hubbard, B. & Karasz, P. & Reed, S. (2019). Two Major Saudi oil Installations Hit by Drone Strike, and U.S. Blames Iran, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-refineries-drone-attack.html.
• Hunter, S. T. (2010). Iran’s Foreign Policy in the post-Soviet Era: Resisting the New International Order. Santa Barbara: Praeger.
• IAEA (2015). Final Assessment on Past and Present Outstanding Issues Regarding Iran’s Nuclear Programme, Board of Governors, GOV/2015/68, https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov-2015-68.pdf.
• Kahalzadeh, H. (2022). Iran after Trump: Can Biden Revive the Nuclear Deal and Does Iran Even Want to?, Brandeis University Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Middle East Brief No. 145.
• Kenner, D. (2013). Why Saudi Arabia Hates the Iran deal, Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/11/14/why-saudi-arabia-hates-the-iran-deal/.
• Kesling, B., Gordon, M. R. (2018). U.S. to Close Consulate in Iraq, Citing Threats from Iran, The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-close-consulate-in-basra-iraq-official-says-1538164084.
• Kwai, I. (2022). Iran Turns off U.N. Surveillance Cameras at Nuclear Cite, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-iaea-cameras.html.
• Lansford, T. (Ed.). (2021). Political Handbook of the World 2020-2021 Volume 1. New York: SAGE Publications.
• Lantis, J. S. (2019). “Winning” and Losing the Iran Nuclear Deal: How Advocacy Coalitions and Competition Shape U.S. Foreign Policy, Politics & Policy, 47(3), 464-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12299
• Lewis, P., Siddiqui, S. & Jacobs, B. (2015). Republicans Fume over Iran Nuclear Deal but Hope of Undermining Accord is Slim, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/14/republicans-iran-nuclear-deal-reaction.
• McGlinchey, S. (2014). US Arms Policies towards the Shah’s Iran. Oxon: Routledge.
• Middle East Monitor. (2022). Russia, Iran and China to Hold Joint Navy Exercise in India Ocean, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220923-russia-iran-and-china-to-hold-joint-navy-exercises-in-indian-ocean/.
• Miller, A. D. & Sokolsky, R. (2021). Israel’s Risky Rhetoric on Iran. CNN Opinion, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/opinions/israel-iran-nuclear-biden-administration-miller-sokolsky/index.html.
• Mintz, A. & Wayne, C. (2016). The Polythink Syndrome: U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions on 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria and ISIS. Standford: Standford University Press.
• Mousavian, S. H. (2013). Globalising Iran’s Fatwa against Nuclear Weapons, Survival, 55(2), 147-162. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2013.784471
• Mousavian, S. H. & Toosi, S. (2017). Assessing U.S.-Iran Nuclear Engagement, The Washington Quarterly, 40(3), 65-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2017.1370332
• Mousavian, S. H. & Kiyaei, E. (2020). A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A New Approach to Nonproliferation. Oxon: Routledge.
• Nichols, M. (2020). Britain, France, Germany Say U.N. Sanctions Relief for Iran to Continue beyond September 20, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-iran-un-int-idUSKBN26934E.
• Nuruzzaman, M. (2020). President Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Campaign and Iran’s Endgame, Strategic Analysis, 44(6), 570-582. https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2020.1841099
• O’Hern, S. (2012). Iran’s Revolutionary Guard: The Threat that Grows while America Sleeps. Washington: Potomac Books.
• O’Sullivan, M. L. (2010). Iran and the Great Sanctions Debate, The Washington Quarterly, 33(4), 7-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2010.516638
• Philips, J. & Brookes, P. (2022a). The Biden Administration’s Iran Plan Won’t Work: Time for Plan B, The Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder No. 3739, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/BG3739.pdf
• Philips, J. & Brookes, P. (2022b). Time for the Biden Administration to Get Though on Iran, The Heritage Foundation, Issue Brief No. 5279, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2022-06/IB5279.pdf.
• Pressman, J. (2009). Power without Influence: The Bush Administration’s Foreign Policy Failure in the Middle East, International Security, 33(4), 149-179. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40207155.
• Reuters (2020). Eleven U.S. Troops Injured in Jan. 8 Iran Missile Attack in Iraq, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa-casualties-idUSKBN1ZG0AX.
• Rubin, A. J., Hubbard, B., Fassihi, F. & Erlanger, S. (2020). Iran Ends Nuclear Limits as Killing of Iranian General Upends Mideast, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/world/middleeast/iran-general-soleimani-iraq.html.
• Rajiv, S. S. C. (2016). Deep Disquiet: Israel and the Iran Nuclear Deal, Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 3(1), 47-62. https://doi.org/10.1177/2347798916632324
• Reuters. (2018). Trump Says Anyone Trading with Iran Will not Trade with US, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-trump-idUSKBN1KS0YQ.
• Rezaei, F. (2019). Iran’s Foreign Policy after the Nuclear Agreement: Politics of Normalizers and Traditionalists. London: Palgrave MacMillan.
• Satloff, R., Ross D., Jeffrey, J., Makovsky, D., Clawson, P., Eisenstadt, M. & Henderson, S. (2015). Assessing the Iran Nuclear Agreement and the Washington Institute’s Iran Study Group June 24 Policy Statement, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/assessing-iran-nuclear-agreement-and-washington-institutes-iran-study-group-june-24.
• Shahabi Sirjani, F. (2013). Iran’s Nuclear Fatwa, Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 4(2), 57-80. https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/journals/irfa/v4i2/f_0029607_23960.pdf.
• Simon, S. (2018). Iran and President Trump: What is the Endgame?, Survival, 60(4), 7-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2018.1494975
• Singh, M. (2017). The View from Congress: U.S. Policy on Iran. Testimony Submitted to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/032817_Singh_Testimony.pdf.
• Starr, B. (2020). U.S. Says Iranian-backed Militias ‘Almost Certainly’ Behind Recent Rocket Attack Near US Embassy in Baghdad, CNN Politics, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/23/politics/centcom-iran-baghdad-embassy/index.html.
• Tabatabai, A. M. (2020). No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran’s National Security Strategy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Tama, J. (2020). Forcing the President’s Hand: How the US Congress Shapes Foreign Policy Through Sanctions Legislation, Foreign Policy Analysis, 16(3), 397-416. https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orz018
• Tang, J. & Pan, R. (2022). Adjustments and Constraints: Biden Administration’s Iran Policy, Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 16(2), 189-208. https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2022.2078601
• Udum, Ş. (2018). Fix it or Nix it? An Analysis of the Trump Administration’s Policy on the Iran Nuclear Deal, Turkish Studies-Economics, Finance and Politics, 13(14), 211-231. http://dx.doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.13495
• U.S. Department of Defense. (2022). National Defense Strategy of the United States of America, https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF. U.S. Department of State. (2011). Fact Sheet: Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act, https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/eb/esc/iransanctions/docs/160710.htm.
• UNSC. (2006). Resolution 1737, Adopted by the Security Council at its 5612. Meeting, https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/681/42/PDF/N0668142.pdf?OpenElement.
• UNSC. (2015). Resolution 2231 on Iran Nuclear Issue, https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/2231/background.
• World Bank. Iran, Islamic Rep. https://data.worldbank.org/country/iran-islamic-rep?view=chart.
• Zaccara L. & Haghirian M. (2020). Rouhani, the Nuclear Deal, and New Horizons for Iran-US Relations, Luciano Zaccara (Ed.), Foreign Policy of Iran under President Hassan Rouhani’s first term (2013-2017) (p. 57-86). London: Palgrave MacMillan.