M5P Karar Ağacı Algoritması Kullanılarak Enerji Kaynakları ile Brüt Elektrik Üretim Miktarının Tahmini

Öz

Enerji konusu ülkeler açısından önemli bir durumdur. Enerji üretimini yeteri düzeyde sağlayabilen ülkelerin halkına daha refah bir hayat sunduğu söylenebilir. Enerji üretiminde ön planda olan elektrik, günlük hayatın vazgeçilmez bir öğesidir. Elektrik üretim sektörü dinamik ve karmaşık bir yapıdadır. Ekonomi, sağlık, spor vb. gibi tüm alanlarda modern yaşamın ve toplumsal ilerlemenin temel taşı olarak görülmektedir. Elektrikte üretimi yeterli derecede sağlamak ülkeler açısından önemli bir gelişmişlik göstergesidir. Bu bağlamda çalışma brüt elektrik üretimi konusuna odaklanılmıştır. Türkiye’nin brüt elektrik üretim değerinin tahmininin ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. 1985-2020 yılları arasındaki verilere dayanarak, 2021-2024 yılları arasının tahminleri yapılmıştır. Çalışmada makine öğrenmesi algoritmalarından M5P karar ağacı algoritmasından yararlanılmıştır. Brüt elektrik üretim değerinin tahminine etki eden değişkenler için ikili korelasyon öznitelik seçim algoritması kullanılmıştır. Tüm değişkenler ile yapılan tahminlerde yaklaşık %71, etkili değişkenler ile yapılan tahminlerde %86 başarı elde edilmiştir. Etkili değişkenler ile yapılan tahminlerde performansın arttığı ve MAPE değerinin %2.97 seviyesine gerilediği görülmüştür. Çalışma sonucunda, Türkiye’nin brüt elektrik üretiminde ‘Yenilenebilir enerji ve atıklar’ değişkeninin geleneksel kaynaklardan daha yüksek bir etki düzeyine sahip olduğu ampirik olarak kanıtlanmıştır. Bu bulgular, enerji politika yapıcıları için stratejik bir rehber niteliğindedir. Ayrıca brüt elektrik üretim değerinin tahminine etki eden diğer değişkenler olarak ‘Net tüketim’, ‘Toplam kurulu güç’ ve ‘Sıvı yakıtlar’ bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tahmin
• Brüt Elektrik Üretimi
• Enerji Kaynakları
• M5P Karar Ağacı Algoritması

Prediction of the Gross Electricity Generation Amount with Energy Sources Using the M5P Decision Tree Algorithm

Öz

Energy is considered an important issue for countries. It is stated that countries that can provide sufficient energy generation offer their people a more prosperous life. Electricity, which is at the forefront of energy generation, is regarded as an indispensable element of daily life. The electricity generation sector is characterized by a dynamic and complex structure. It is seen as the cornerstone of modern life and social progress in all areas such as the economy, health, and sports. The insurance of sufficient electricity generation is viewed as an important indicator of development for countries. In this context, this study focuses on gross electricity generation. A prediction of Türkiye's gross electricity generation value is aimed to be presented. Based on data from 1985 to 2020, predictions for the period 2021-2024 were made. The M5P decision tree algorithm from machine learning algorithms was used in the study. The Pairwise correlation feature selection algorithm was used for selecting the variables that affect the prediction of gross electricity generation value. Approximately 71% accuracy was achieved in the predictions made with all variables, and 86% accuracy was achieved in the predictions made with the effective variables. The findings reveal that utilizing effective variables significantly enhances predictive performance, with the MAPE value dropping to a notable 2.97%. A key empirical contribution of this study is the demonstration that ‘Renewable energy and waste’ exerts a more substantial influence on Türkiye’s gross electricity generation than traditional energy sources. Consequently, these results offer a robust strategic framework for energy policymakers in navigating the national energy transition. It was observed that performance was increased in the predictions made with effective variables. Furthermore, other effective variables for the prediction of gross electricity generation were found to be ‘Net consumption’, ‘Total installed capacity’, and ‘Liquid fuels’.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Prediction
• Gross Electricity Generation
• Energy Sources
• M5P Decision Tree Algorithm

Kaynakça

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