Türkiye Ekonomisinde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Kesişim Noktası: Askeri Harcamalar, Göç, Terör ve İhracat İlişkileri (1996–2023)

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1996-2023 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, askeri harcamalar, göç, terör ve ihracat değişkenleri arasındaki dinamik ilişkileri hem uzun hem de kısa dönem perspektifinde analiz etmektedir. Eş bütünleşme ve VECM modelleri; doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, askeri harcamalar, göç ve terör arasında uzun dönemli denge ilişkisi bulunduğunu ortaya koymuş, askeri harcamaların doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi anlamlı iken, terörün etkisinin sınırlı kaldığını göstermiştir. Etki-tepki analizleri, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların kendi şoklarına ve askeri harcamalardan gelen etkilere pozitif tepki verdiğini, göç ve terör kaynaklı etkilerin ise daha zayıf ve kısa ömürlü olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Varyans ayrıştırması sonuçları, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve askeri harcamaların büyük ölçüde kendi içsel dinamiklerinden etkilendiğini, göç ve terörün ise zamanla dışsal şoklara daha açık hale geldiğini göstermektedir. Vektör Otoregresyon analizinde ise, ihracatın kısa dönemde göç ve terörden bağımsız hareket ettiği, göçün ise ihracat ve askeri harcamalardan etkilendiği belirlenmiştir. Genel olarak, Türkiye ekonomisinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, askeri harcamalar, göç ve terör arasında uzun dönemli yapısal bir ilişki bulunurken, ihracatın bu sosyal dinamiklerden daha bağımsız hareket ettiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Terör
• Göç
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar
• Askeri Harcamalar
• İhracat

The Nexus Of Foreign Direct Investment in The Türkiye Economy: Interactions With Military Expenditures, Migration, Terrorism, And Exports (1996–2023)

Öz

This study analyzes the dynamic relationships between the variables of foreign direct investment, military expenditures, migration, terrorism, and exports in the Turkish economy for the 1996-2023 period from both long- and short-term perspectives. Cointegration and VECM models revealed a long-term equilibrium relationship among foreign direct investment, military expenditures, migration, and terrorism, indicating that while the impact of military expenditures on foreign direct investment is significant, the effect of terrorism remains limited. Impulse response analyses demonstrated that foreign direct investment responds positively to its own shocks and to effects stemming from military expenditures, whereas the impacts originating from migration and terrorism are weaker and short-lived. Variance decomposition results indicate that foreign direct investment and military expenditures are largely driven by their own internal dynamics, while migration and terrorism become increasingly susceptible to external shocks over time. Furthermore, the VAR analysis determined that exports act independently of migration and terrorism in the short term, whereas migration is influenced by exports and military expenditures. Overall, it was concluded that while a long-term structural relationship exists among foreign direct investment, military expenditures, migration, and terrorism in the Turkish economy, exports operate more independently from these social dynamics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Teror
• Migration
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Military Expenditure
• Export

Kaynakça

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