Drought Analysis at Apa Dam

Abstract

Among natural disasters, drought is classified as the most damaging because it has long-lasting effects on both natural and man-made systems. Consequences of drought include water shortages, agricultural losses, reduced hydroelectric supply, loss of stored water resources, fires, famine, reduced workforce or productivity, mass migrations. It is reported that approximately 20% of the damages caused by disasters in the world are caused by drought. It is extremely important to follow and monitor the drought to reduce the damage caused by drought and to be prepared for drought. In this study, drought analysis was performed using the Normalized Precipitation Index (SPI) method in the Konya Apa Dam. Using the monthly total precipitation data between 1955 and 2020, the 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 monthly time steps of the SPI were examined separately, and 85, 41, 34, 26, 13, 7 drought events were detected in the region, respectively.

Keywords

• Drought
• Apa Dam
• SPI

Apa Barajında Kuraklık Analizi

Öz

Doğal afetler arasında, kuraklık hem doğal hem de insan yapımı sistemler üzerinde uzun süreli etkiye sahip olmasından dolayı en zararlı olan afet olarak sınıflandırılmaktadır. Kuraklığın sebep olduğu sonuçlar arasında su kıtlığı, tarımsal kayıplar, hidroelektrik arzın azalması, depolanan su kaynakların kaybı, yangınlar, kıtlık, işgücünde veya üretkenlikte azalma kitlesel göçler sayılabilir. Dünyada meydana gelen afetlerin yol açtığı zararların yaklaşık %20’sinin kuraklıktan meydana geldiği raporlanmaktadır. Kuraklık sebebiyle meydana gelen zararların azaltılabilmesi ve kuraklığa karşı hazırlıklı olabilmek için kuraklığın takip edilmesi ve izlenmesi son derece önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Konya Apa Barajı bölgesinde Normalleştirilmiş Yağış İndisi (SPI) yöntemi kullanılarak kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. 1955-2020 yılı arasındaki aylık toplam yağış verisinden faydalanılarak SPI’ın 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 aylık zaman adımları ayrı ayrı incelenmiş olup, bölgede sırasıyla 85, 41, 34, 26, 13, 7 adet kuraklık tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen kuraklık sonuçlarındaki aşırı kuraklık kategorisindeki ait sonuçlar dikkat çekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık
• Apa Barajı
• SPI

Kaynakça

1. Balık İ., et al., Some characteristics and size of carp (Cyprinus carpio L., 1758) population in the Lake Karamık (Afyonkarahisar/Turkey), Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 6(2), 117-122, (2006).
2. Barker L.J., et al., From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(6), 2483-2505, (2016).
3. Byun H.R., Wilhite D.A., Objective quantification of drought severity and duration, Journal of Climate, 12(9), 2747-2756, (1999).
4. Cloke H.L., Hannah D.M., Large-scale hydrology: advances in understanding processes, dynamics and models from beyond river basin to global scale Preface, Hydrological Processes, 25(7), 991-995, (2011).
5. Dogan, S., Berktay A., Singh V.P., Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, 470-471, 255-268, (2012).
6. Dracup J.A., Lee K.S., Paulson E.G., On the Definition of Droughts. Water Resources Research, 16(2), 297-302, (1980).
7. Gumus V., Algin M., Meteorological and hydrological drought analysis of the Seyhan−Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey: Drought analysis of the Seyhan−Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey, Meteorological Applications, 24, 62-73, (2017).
8. Guttman N.B., Accepting the standardized precipitation index: A calculation algorithm. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(2), 311-322, (1999).

9. Gümüş V., Akım Kuraklık İndeksi ile Asi Havzasının Hidrolojik Kuraklık Analizi, Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(1), 65-73, (2017).
10. Heim R., A Review of Twentieth‒Century Drought Indices Used in the United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, (2002).
11. Hinis M.A., Hydrometeorological Drought Analysis in Aksaray by Aggregate Drought Index, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 28(4), 711-721, (2013).
12. McKee T.B., Dosken N.J., Kleist J., The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, in Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California, 179-184, (1993).
13. Mishra A.K., Singh V.P., A review of drought concepts, Journal of Hydrology, 391(1-2), 204-216, (2010).
14. Palmer W.C., Meteorological drought, in US Department of Commerce, (1965).
15. Tugrul T., Dogan S., Dursun S., Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesindeki İllerin Kuraklık Analizi, Konya Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(4), 705-712, (2019).
16. White D.H., Walcott J.J., The role of seasonal indices in monitoring and assessing agricultural and other droughts: a review, Crop & Pasture Science, 60(7), 599-616, (2009).
17. Yu M.X., Liu X.L., Li Q.F., Responses of meteorological drought-hydrological drought propagation to watershed scales in the upper Huaihe River basin, China, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(15), 17561-17570, (2020).