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Borsa İstanbul (BIST) 100 Endeksi İle Zımni Volatilite (VIX) Endeksi Arasındaki Eş-Bütünleşme Ve Granger Nedensellik

Yıl 2015, , 1 - 6, 07.08.2015
https://doi.org/10.18493/kmusekad.24268

Öz

Depending on the financial liberalization, financial markets have begun to move together. The aim of this study made on the basis of integration of financial markets is to determine the causality relationship between BIST 100 index and VIX index. In the study covering 02/01/2009-11/01/2013 period, time series related to BIST 100 index and VIX index are used. In the research, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model are applied. Johansen-Juselius cointegration test results show that there is cointegration between BIST 100 index and VIX index; however error correction model indicates BIST 100 index are affected by VIX index

Kaynakça

  • Amira, K., Taamouti, A. ve Tsafack, G. (2011), “What Drives International Equity Correlations? Volatility or Market Direction?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 1234–1263.
  • Ayuso, J. ve Blanco, R. (2001), “Has Financial Market Integration Increased during The Nineties” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 11, 265–287.
  • Bali, T. G. ve Weinbaum, D. (2007), “A Conditional Extreme Value Volatility Estimator Based on -Frequency Returns” Journal of Econometrics, 105, 5-26.
  • Becker, R., Clements, A. E. ve McClelland, A. (2009), “The Jump Component of S&P 500 Volatility and the VIX Index” Journal of Banking & Finance, 33, 1033-1038.
  • Blair, B. J., Poon, S. H. ve Taylor, S. J. (2001), “Forecasting S&P 100 Volatility: The Incremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High Frequency Index Returns” Journal of Econometrics, 105, 5-26.
  • Claessens, S. ve Schmukler, S. L. (2007), “International Financial Integration through Equity Markets: Which Firms from which Countries Go Global?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 26, 788-813.
  • Durkaya, M. ve Ceylan, S. (2006), “Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme” Maliye Dergisi, 150, 79-89.
  • Fleming, J. (1998), “The Quality of Market Volatility Forecasts Implied by S&P 100 Index Option Prices” Journal of Empirical Finance, 5: 317–345.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1995), Basic Econometrics. İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık. 838 s., İstanbul.
  • Hassan, M. K. ve Naka, A. (1996), “Short-run and Long-run Dynamic International Review of Economics and Finance, 5, 387-405.
  • Hassan, M. K., Maroney, N. C., El-Sady, H. M. ve Telfah, A. (2003), “Country Risk and Stock Market Volatility, Predictability, and Diversification in The Middle East and Africa” Economic Systems, 27, 63-82.
  • Horvath, R. ve Petrovski, D. (2013), “International Stock Market Integration: Central and South Eastern Europe Compared” Economic Systems, 415, 1-11.
  • Konstantinidi, E., Skiadopoulos, G. ve Tzagkaraki, E. (2008), “Can The Evolution of Implied Volatility Be Forecasted? Evidence from European and US Implied Volatility Indices” Journal of Banking & Finance, 32, 2401-2411.
  • Korkmaz, T. ve Çevik, E. İ. (2009), “Zımni Volatilite Endeksinden Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalara Yönelik Volatilite Yayılma Etkisi” BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 3, 87- 105.
  • Menezes, R., Dionísio, A. ve Hassanic, H. (2012), “On The Globalization of Stock Markets: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis to The G7 countries” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 369–384.
  • Mukherjee, K. N. ve Kumar, M. R. (2010), “Stock Market Integration and Volatility Spillover: India and Its Major Asian Counterparts” Research in International Business and Finance, 24, 235–251.
  • Naranjo, A. ve Protopapadakis, A. (1997), “Financial Market Integration Tests: An Investigation Using USA Equity Market” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 7, 93-135.
  • Özdemir, Z. A., Olgun, H. ve Saraçoglu, B. (2009), “Dynamic Linkages between The Center and Periphery in International Stock Markets” Research in International Business and Finance, 23, 46– 53.
  • Su, C.W. (2011), “Non-linear Causality between The Stock and Real Estate Markets of Western European Countries: Evidence from Rank Tests” Economic Modelling, 28, 845–851.
  • Toyoshima, Y. ve Hamori, S. (2013), “Asymmetric Dynamics in Stock Market Correlations: Evidence from Japan and Singapore” Journal of Asian Economics, 24, 117–123.
  • Uysal, A., Özer H. ve Mucuk, M. (2009), “Dış Borçlanma ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: (1965-2007)” Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23, 161-177.
  • Vuran, B. (2010), “İMKB 100 Endeksinin Uluslararası Hisse Senedi Endeksleri ile İlişkisinin Eşbütünleşim Analizi ile Belirlenmesi” İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 39 (1), 154-168.
  • Wang, J. (2007), “Foreign Equity Trading and Emerging Market Volatility Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand” Journal of Development Economics, 84, 798–811.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007), “Ticari ve Finansal Dışa Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama” İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 5, 67-89.
  • Zhou, X., Zhang, W. ve Jie, Z. (2012), “Volatility Spillovers between The Chinese and World Equity Markets” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 20, 247–270.

Borsa İstanbul (BIST) 100 Endeksi İle Zımni Volatilite (VIX) Endeksi Arasındaki Eş-Bütünleşme Ve Granger Nedensellik

Yıl 2015, , 1 - 6, 07.08.2015
https://doi.org/10.18493/kmusekad.24268

Öz

Finansal serbestleşmeye bağlı olarak, finansal piyasalar birlikte hareket etmeye başlamıştır. Finansal piyasaların entegre olmasından yola çıkılarak yapılan bu çalışmanın amacı, BIST 100 endeksi ile VIX endeksi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmektir. 02/01/2009-11/01/2013 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada, BIST 100 endeksi ve VIX endeksine ilişkin zaman serileri kullanılmıştır. Araştırmada, Johansen-Jeselius eş-bütünleşme testi ve vektör hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmıştır. Johansen-Juselius eş-bütünleşme testi sonuçları BIST 100 endeksi ile VIX endeksi arasında eş-bütünleşme olduğunu göstermiştir; hata düzeltme modeli ise BIST 100 endeksinin VIX endeksinden etkilendiğine işaret etmektedir

Kaynakça

  • Amira, K., Taamouti, A. ve Tsafack, G. (2011), “What Drives International Equity Correlations? Volatility or Market Direction?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 1234–1263.
  • Ayuso, J. ve Blanco, R. (2001), “Has Financial Market Integration Increased during The Nineties” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 11, 265–287.
  • Bali, T. G. ve Weinbaum, D. (2007), “A Conditional Extreme Value Volatility Estimator Based on -Frequency Returns” Journal of Econometrics, 105, 5-26.
  • Becker, R., Clements, A. E. ve McClelland, A. (2009), “The Jump Component of S&P 500 Volatility and the VIX Index” Journal of Banking & Finance, 33, 1033-1038.
  • Blair, B. J., Poon, S. H. ve Taylor, S. J. (2001), “Forecasting S&P 100 Volatility: The Incremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High Frequency Index Returns” Journal of Econometrics, 105, 5-26.
  • Claessens, S. ve Schmukler, S. L. (2007), “International Financial Integration through Equity Markets: Which Firms from which Countries Go Global?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 26, 788-813.
  • Durkaya, M. ve Ceylan, S. (2006), “Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme” Maliye Dergisi, 150, 79-89.
  • Fleming, J. (1998), “The Quality of Market Volatility Forecasts Implied by S&P 100 Index Option Prices” Journal of Empirical Finance, 5: 317–345.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1995), Basic Econometrics. İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık. 838 s., İstanbul.
  • Hassan, M. K. ve Naka, A. (1996), “Short-run and Long-run Dynamic International Review of Economics and Finance, 5, 387-405.
  • Hassan, M. K., Maroney, N. C., El-Sady, H. M. ve Telfah, A. (2003), “Country Risk and Stock Market Volatility, Predictability, and Diversification in The Middle East and Africa” Economic Systems, 27, 63-82.
  • Horvath, R. ve Petrovski, D. (2013), “International Stock Market Integration: Central and South Eastern Europe Compared” Economic Systems, 415, 1-11.
  • Konstantinidi, E., Skiadopoulos, G. ve Tzagkaraki, E. (2008), “Can The Evolution of Implied Volatility Be Forecasted? Evidence from European and US Implied Volatility Indices” Journal of Banking & Finance, 32, 2401-2411.
  • Korkmaz, T. ve Çevik, E. İ. (2009), “Zımni Volatilite Endeksinden Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalara Yönelik Volatilite Yayılma Etkisi” BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 3, 87- 105.
  • Menezes, R., Dionísio, A. ve Hassanic, H. (2012), “On The Globalization of Stock Markets: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis to The G7 countries” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 369–384.
  • Mukherjee, K. N. ve Kumar, M. R. (2010), “Stock Market Integration and Volatility Spillover: India and Its Major Asian Counterparts” Research in International Business and Finance, 24, 235–251.
  • Naranjo, A. ve Protopapadakis, A. (1997), “Financial Market Integration Tests: An Investigation Using USA Equity Market” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 7, 93-135.
  • Özdemir, Z. A., Olgun, H. ve Saraçoglu, B. (2009), “Dynamic Linkages between The Center and Periphery in International Stock Markets” Research in International Business and Finance, 23, 46– 53.
  • Su, C.W. (2011), “Non-linear Causality between The Stock and Real Estate Markets of Western European Countries: Evidence from Rank Tests” Economic Modelling, 28, 845–851.
  • Toyoshima, Y. ve Hamori, S. (2013), “Asymmetric Dynamics in Stock Market Correlations: Evidence from Japan and Singapore” Journal of Asian Economics, 24, 117–123.
  • Uysal, A., Özer H. ve Mucuk, M. (2009), “Dış Borçlanma ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: (1965-2007)” Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23, 161-177.
  • Vuran, B. (2010), “İMKB 100 Endeksinin Uluslararası Hisse Senedi Endeksleri ile İlişkisinin Eşbütünleşim Analizi ile Belirlenmesi” İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 39 (1), 154-168.
  • Wang, J. (2007), “Foreign Equity Trading and Emerging Market Volatility Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand” Journal of Development Economics, 84, 798–811.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007), “Ticari ve Finansal Dışa Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama” İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 5, 67-89.
  • Zhou, X., Zhang, W. ve Jie, Z. (2012), “Volatility Spillovers between The Chinese and World Equity Markets” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 20, 247–270.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Emine Kaya Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 7 Ağustos 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015

Kaynak Göster

APA Kaya, E. (2015). Borsa İstanbul (BIST) 100 Endeksi İle Zımni Volatilite (VIX) Endeksi Arasındaki Eş-Bütünleşme Ve Granger Nedensellik. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2015(1), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.18493/kmusekad.24268

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