CLUB CONVERGENCE OF REGIONAL PRICES IN TURKEY

Öz

Recent global developments such as Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have affected regional house price dynamics in Turkey. As a result, the rise in house prices has been more pronounced in some regions of Turkey than in others. The central authority's implementation of common monetary and fiscal policies creates the expectation that a single price law will prevail across regions. However, the impact of structural shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war on regional house price convergence is also of interest. In this context, this study aims to analyze the convergence of house prices in Turkey's NUTS-II regions between January 2003 and June 2023 using the log t test developed by Philips and Sul (2007). The log t test findings indicate that house prices in NUTS-II regions do not converge to a single equilibrium point. According to the findings of the clustering algorithm, two clubs are defined in terms of house prices in NUTS-II regions. The first convergence club includes the coastal TR32 (Aydın, Denizli, Muğla) and TR61 (Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) tourism regions, while the second convergence club includes the remaining twenty-four regions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• House Prices
• Club Convergence
• Regional Analysis

TÜRKİYE’DE BÖLGESEL KONUT FİYATLARININ KULÜP YAKINSAMASI

Öz

Covid-19 pandemisi ve Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı gibi son dönemde küresel çapta yaşanan gelişmeler Türkiye’de bölgesel konut fiyatının dinamiklerini etkilemiştir. Bu etki sonucunda konut fiyatlarındaki yükseliş Türkiye’nin bazı bölgelerinde diğer bölgelere göre daha belirgin gözlenmiştir. Merkezi otoritenin ortak para ve maliye politikaları yürütmesi bölgeler arasında tek fiyat kanununun geçerli olacağı beklentisini oluşturmaktadır. Ancak Covid-19 pandemisi ve Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı gibi yapısal şokların bölgesel konut fiyatı yakınsaması üzerindeki etkisi de merak konusudur. Bu bağlamada araştırmada 2003 yılının Ocak ve 2023 yılının haziran ayları arasını kapsayan dönemde Türkiye’nin Düzey-II bölgelerinde konut fiyatının yakınsamasının Philips ve Sul (2007) tarafından geliştirilen log t testi ile analiz edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Log t testi bulguları Düzey-II bölgelerinde konut fiyatlarının tek bir denge noktasına yakınsamadığına işaret etmektedir. Kümeleme algoritmasının bulgularına göre Düzey-II bölgelerinde konut fiyatları açısından iki kulüp tanımlanmaktadır. İlk yakınsama kulübü denize kıyısı olan TR32 (Aydın, Denizli, Muğla) ve TR61 (Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) turizm bölgelerini içerirken, ikinci yakınsama kulübü geri kalan yirmi dört bölgeyi içermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konut fiyatları
• Kulüp yakınsaması
• Bölgesel analiz

Kaynakça

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