THE EFFECT OF DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT AND TRADE BALANCE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: BANGLADESH

Öz

The effects of development assistance have long been a controversial issue in the literature. The basis of these discussions is the differences in the economic and institutional structures of the countries receiving assistance and the way the assistance is used. This study examines the relationship between official development assistance provided to Bangladesh and the country’s economic growth using data from 1976–2022. In the analysis, unidirectional causality from gross domestic product (GDP) to official development assistance and trade balance, and bidirectional causality between GDP and current balance was identified. The findings show that external economic balances are decisive in Bangladesh’s sustainable growth process, while development assistance creates indirect effects. As a result, policies based not only on the assistance-income relationship but also on a holistic evaluation of the current and trade balance should be adopted. In this context, the proposed policy framework is based on the analysis findings and is derived not from the direct evaluation of the impact of development assistance on growth, but from the reflection of the identified causal relationships on economic policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Official Development Assistance
• Gross Domestic Product
• Johansen Cointegration Test
• Granger Causality Test

KALKINMA YARDIMI, CARİ DENGE VE TİCARİ DENGENİN GAYRİ SAFİ YURTİÇİ HASILA ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: BANGLADEŞ

Öz

Kalkınma yardımlarının etkileri, literatürde uzun süredir tartışmalı bir konu olmaya devam etmektedir. Bu tartışmaların temelinde, yardım alan ülkelerin ekonomik ve kurumsal yapılarındaki farklılıklar ile yardımın kullanım biçimi yer almaktadır. Bu çalışma, Bangladeş’e yapılan resmi kalkınma yardımları ile ülkenin ekonomik büyümesi arasındaki ilişkiyi 1976–2022 dönemi verileriyle incelemektedir. Analizlerde, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan (GSYİH) resmi kalkınma yardımına ve ticaret dengesine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik, GSYİH ile cari denge arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular, Bangladeş’in sürdürülebilir büyüme sürecinde dış ekonomik dengelerin belirleyici olduğunu, kalkınma yardımlarının ise dolaylı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, sadece yardım-gelir ilişkisine değil, cari ve ticaret dengesinin bütüncül biçimde değerlendirilmesine dayanan politikalar benimsenmelidir. Bu kapsamda, önerilen politika çerçevesi analiz bulgularına dayalıdır ve doğrudan kalkınma yardımlarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin değerlendirilmesinden değil, tespit edilen nedensellik ilişkilerinin ekonomi politikalarına yansımasından türetilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Resmi Kalkınma Yardımı
• Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla
• Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi
• Granger Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

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