THE EFFECT OF DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT AND TRADE BALANCE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: BANGLADESH

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 51 , 115 - 131 , 20.04.2026

Hilal Paksoy

https://doi.org/10.18493/kmusekad.1631976

https://izlik.org/JA26JF59LC

Öz

The effects of development assistance have long been a controversial issue in the literature. The basis of these discussions is the differences in the economic and institutional structures of the countries receiving assistance and the way the assistance is used. This study examines the relationship between official development assistance provided to Bangladesh and the country’s economic growth using data from 1976–2022. In the analysis, unidirectional causality from gross domestic product (GDP) to official development assistance and trade balance, and bidirectional causality between GDP and current balance was identified. The findings show that external economic balances are decisive in Bangladesh’s sustainable growth process, while development assistance creates indirect effects. As a result, policies based not only on the assistance-income relationship but also on a holistic evaluation of the current and trade balance should be adopted. In this context, the proposed policy framework is based on the analysis findings and is derived not from the direct evaluation of the impact of development assistance on growth, but from the reflection of the identified causal relationships on economic policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Official Development Assistance , Gross Domestic Product , Johansen Cointegration Test , Granger Causality Test

KALKINMA YARDIMI, CARİ DENGE VE TİCARİ DENGENİN GAYRİ SAFİ YURTİÇİ HASILA ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: BANGLADEŞ

https://izlik.org/JA26JF59LC

Öz

Kalkınma yardımlarının etkileri, literatürde uzun süredir tartışmalı bir konu olmaya devam etmektedir. Bu tartışmaların temelinde, yardım alan ülkelerin ekonomik ve kurumsal yapılarındaki farklılıklar ile yardımın kullanım biçimi yer almaktadır. Bu çalışma, Bangladeş’e yapılan resmi kalkınma yardımları ile ülkenin ekonomik büyümesi arasındaki ilişkiyi 1976–2022 dönemi verileriyle incelemektedir. Analizlerde, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan (GSYİH) resmi kalkınma yardımına ve ticaret dengesine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik, GSYİH ile cari denge arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular, Bangladeş’in sürdürülebilir büyüme sürecinde dış ekonomik dengelerin belirleyici olduğunu, kalkınma yardımlarının ise dolaylı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, sadece yardım-gelir ilişkisine değil, cari ve ticaret dengesinin bütüncül biçimde değerlendirilmesine dayanan politikalar benimsenmelidir. Bu kapsamda, önerilen politika çerçevesi analiz bulgularına dayalıdır ve doğrudan kalkınma yardımlarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin değerlendirilmesinden değil, tespit edilen nedensellik ilişkilerinin ekonomi politikalarına yansımasından türetilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Resmi Kalkınma Yardımı , Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla , Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi , Granger Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

• Alesina, A., ve Dollar, D. (2000). Who gives foreign aid to whom and why? Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 33-63.
• Burnside, C., ve Dollar, D. (2000). Aid, Policies, and Growth. American Economic Review, 90(4), 774-780
• Clemens, M. A., Radelet, S., ve Bhavnani, R. (2004). Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-Term Effect of Aid On Growth. Centre for Global Development Working Paper, No. 44, 519-617. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41494839.
• Collier, P., ve Dollar, D. (2002). Aid Allocation and Poverty Reduction. European Economic Review, 46, 1475- 1500.
• Collier, P., ve Hoeffler, A. (2002). Aid, Policy and Growth In Post-Conflict Countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2902, 1-24. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/640191468763761909/Aid-policy- and-growth-in-post-conflict-countries.
• Dowling, J. M., ve Hiemenz, U. (1983). Aid, Savings and Growth In The Asian Region. The Developing Economies, 21(2), 3-13.
• Durbarry, R., Gemmell, N., ve Greenaway, D. (1998). New Evidence On The Impact of Foreign Aid On Economic Growth. The University of Nottingham, 8(2). https://hdl.handle.net/10419/81776.
• Easterly, W. (2003). Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(3), 23-48.
• Giles, J. A. (1994). Another Look At The Evidence On Foreign Aid Led Economic Growth. Applied Economics Letters, 1, 194-199.
• Granger, C. W. J. (1980). Testing for Causality: A Personal Viewpoint. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2(4), 329–352.
• Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions In Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111–120.
• Griffin, K., ve Enos, J. (1970). Foreign Assistance: Objectives and Consequences. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 18, 313-327.
• Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill.
• Islam, A. M. (1992). Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: An Econometric Study of Bangladesh. Applied Economics, 24, 41–44.
• Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254.
• Kormendi, R., Meguire, P., ve Levy, V. (1988). Aid, Investment and Economic Growth In Developing Countries.
• Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer.
• OECD. (2015). Development Co-Operation Report 2015: Making Partnerships Effective Coalitions For Action. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2015/09/development-co-operation-report- 2015_g1g52d0a.htm
• OECD. (2008). Is it ODA? OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC). https://www.oecd.org/dac/financing-sustainable-development/development-finance- standards/45560647.pdf
• Ovasko, P. (2003). Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Does Dependency Matter? University of Helsinki.
• Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing For A Unit Root In Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335– 346.
• Radelet, S. (2006). A primer on foreign aid (Working Paper No. 92). Center for Global Development. https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/8846_file_WP92.pdf
• Radelet, S. (2008). Challenging Foreign Aid: A Policymaker's Guide To The Millennium Challenge Account. Center for Global Development.
• Tarı, R. (2015). Ekonometri. Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları, 14. Baskı.
• The World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world- development-indicators.
• Ticaret Bakanlığı. (2023). Bangladeş Ülke Sunumu. https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/63db909113b876d06090b5ec/Banglades_Sohbet_Toplantisi_Sunumu_06_06_20 23.pdf
• Ticaret Bakanlığı. (2024). Bangladeş Ülke Profili. https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/5f1ff69513b87604785508c9/Banglade%C5%9F%20%C3%9Clke%20Profili-2024.pdf
• Van Schendel, W. (2009). A History of Bangladesh. Cambridge University Press.
• Van Wijnbergen, S. (1986). Macroeconomic Aspects of The Effectiveness of Foreign Aid: On The Two-Gap Model, Home Goods Disequilibrium and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment. Journal of International Economics, 21(1–2), 123–136.
• Yeğen, İ. (2009). AB Mali Yardımları ve AB’nin Yeni Üye Ülkeleriyle Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 1-157.