TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ BORCUN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ

Öz

Bu araştırmada, dış borçların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, Türkiye ekonomisi için ekonometrik olarak analiz edilmektedir. Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme göstergelerinin kullanıldığı ana değişkenlerinin yanısıra, dışa açıklık ve nüfus gibi ekonomik büyümeyi etkilediği düşünülen değişkenler de analize katılmaktadır. Araştırmada kullanılan veriler 1973-2023 dönemine ait yıllık verileri içermektedir. Araştırmanın modeli oluşturulurken, değişkenlerin kararlılık seviyelerine bağlı olarak otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) yöntemi kullanılmakta; kısa ve uzun dönem analizleri yapılmaktadır. Araştırmanın bulguları, dış borçların ekonomik büyümeyi artırmadığını, tam tersine negatif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Nüfus ve dış ticaret açıklığının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri; nüfus değişkeni için negatif, dışa açıklık değişkeni için pozitif bulunmuştur. Değişkenlerin katsayılarına ait sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış Borç
• Ekonomik büyüme
• ARDL
• TÜRKİYE

THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: ARDL BOUNDS TEST APPROACH

Öz

In this research, the impact of external debt on economic growth is analyzed econometrically for the Turkish economy. In addition to the main variables used in external debt and economic growth indicators, variables thought to affect economic growth such as openness to foreign trade and population are also included in the analysis. The data used in the study include annual data for the period 1973-2023. The model of the study is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, which is created depending on the stability levels of the variables. According to this method, short and long-term analyses were conducted. The findings of the study show that external debt does not increase economic growth, on the contrary, it affects it negatively. The effects of population and foreign trade openness on economic growth were found to be negative for the population variable and positive for the external openness variable. The results of the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• External debt
• Economic growth
• ARDL
• Turkey

Kaynakça

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