Dünya’da Doğurganlık Oranlarının Dönüşümü: Rejim Değişim Modeli

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 45, 1324 - 1335, 29.12.2023

Seda Ertürk , Selçuk Koç

Öz

Bu çalışmada 1960’tan 2021’e kadar dünyadaki doğurganlık oranları Rejim Değişim Modeli kullanarak incelenmiştir. Rejim değişim modelleri ile modellemenin sebebi dünyadaki doğurganlık oranları verilerinin zaman zaman rijit değişiklikler yaşaması ve literatürde yapılan çalışmaların rejim değişimini dikkate almadan yaptıkları çalışmaların doğru modellenmediği için hatalı sonuçlar verdiği kaygısıdır. Bu bağlamda doğurganlık oranları tek, çift ve 3 rejim olarak modellenmiş ve en doğru modellemenin incelenen dönemde üç rejim olarak modellemenin olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Modelleme yapılan çalışmalarda doğrusal olmama testlerini dikkate almadan yapılan çalışmalar (tek rejim olduğunu varsayar) hatalı sonuçlar verir. Doğurganlık oranlarında yaşanan rijit değişimlerden en barizi 1993 yılıdır. 1993’e kadar dünya her üç rejimi birden yaşarken 1993 yılından sonra düşük doğurganlık rejimine geçilmiştir. Düşük doğurganlık rejimi artan yaşam beklentisiyle birlikte nüfus yaşlanmasına ve dolayısıyla birçok ekonomik değişkende değişime yol açmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demografik Dönüşüm, Doğurganlık Oranı, Rejim Değişim Modeli

The Transition of Fertility Rates in the World: Regime Switching Model

Öz

In this study, the fertility rates in the world from 1960 to 2021 were analyzed the Switching Regime Model. The reason for modelling with regime switching models is the fact that the fertility rate data in the world experience rigid changes from time to time and the concern that the studies conducted in the literature without considering the regime change give erroneous results because they are not modelled correctly. In this context, fertility rates were modelled as single, double and triple regimes and it was concluded that the most accurate modelling was the triple regime modelling in the period examined. In modelling studies, studies conducted without considering nonlinearity tests (assuming a single regime) give erroneous results. The most obvious one of the rigid changes in fertility rates is 1993. While the world experienced all three regimes until 1993, the low fertility regime was adopted after 1993. The low fertility regime has led to population ageing with increasing life expectancy and thus to changes in many economic variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demographic Transition, Fertility Rate, Regime Switching Model

Kaynakça

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