FARKLI DÜZEYLERE GÖRE AYARLANMIŞ ENFLASYON BEKLENTİLERİNİN SERMAYE VE PARA DEĞİŞKENLERİ İLE İLİŞKİSİ

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 47, 1304 - 1322, 31.12.2024

Serhat Alpağut

https://doi.org/10.18493/kmusekad.1395630

Öz

Bu çalışmada düşük beklentilere sahip bireyler ile yüksek beklentilere sahip bireylerin hangi makroekonomik değişkeni belirleyici olarak kullandıkları sorusuna cevap aranmaktadır. Bunun için enflasyon beklentisi 0 ile 20, 20 ile 40 ve 40 üstü olmak üzere üç kategoriye ayrılmıştır. Bu işlem ile düşük, orta ve yüksek enflasyon beklentileri elde edilmiştir. Böylece farklı enflasyon beklentileri ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişki tespit edilmek istenmiştir. Çalışmada 2013-2023 dönemi aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem ilişkinin tespiti için Phillips-Ouliaris eşbütünleşme yöntemi kullanılmış olup uzun dönem katsayıların tahmini için de DOLS ve FMOLS tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda düşük enflasyon beklentilerinde kredi faizi, para arzı, enflasyon ve hisse senedi değişkenlerinin belirleyici olduğu; orta düzey enflasyon beklentilerinde döviz kuru, para arzı ve enflasyonun belirleyici olduğu; yüksek enflasyon beklentilerinde ise döviz kuru, kredi faizi, para arzı, enflasyon ve mevduat faizinin belirleyici olduğu tespit edilmiştir. İki dikkat çekici husus bulunmaktadır. İlki, düşük enflasyon beklentilerinde katsayıların önemsiz sayılacak düzeyde düşük değerler almasıdır. Bu sonuç düşük enflasyon bekleyen bireylerin sermaye ve para değişkenlerini dikkate almalarına rağmen güçlü bir hassasiyet kurmadıklarını ifade etmektedir. İkinci husus ise orta ve yüksek enflasyon beklentilerinde sermaye değişkeni olan hisse senedinin istatistiki olarak anlamsız olmasıdır. Bu sonuç orta ve yüksek enflasyon beklentilerinde sadece parasal değişkenlerin dikkate alındığını ifade etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Beklenen Enflasyon, Gerçekleşen Enflasyon, Para Arzı, Hisse Senedi., Faiz Oranı

THE RELATIONSHIP OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ADJUSTED TO DIFFERENT LEVELS WITH CAPITAL AND MONETARY VARIABLES

Öz

This study seeks to answer the question of which macroeconomic variables are used as determinants by individuals with low expectations and individuals with high expectations. For this purpose, inflation expectations were divided into three categories: 0 to 20, 20 to 40 and over 40. In this way, low, medium and high inflation expectations were obtained. The aim was to determine the relationship between different inflation expectations and macroeconomic variables. The study used monthly data for the period 2013-2023. The Phillips-Ouliaris co-integration method was used to determine the long-run relationship and DOLS and FMOLS estimators were used to estimate the long-run coefficients. The results show that the variables credit interest, money supply, inflation and stocks are determinants of low inflation expectations, the exchange rate, money supply and inflation are determinants of medium inflation expectations and the exchange rate, credit interest, money supply, inflation and deposit interest are determinants of high inflation expectations. Two points stand out. The first is that when long-term coefficients are evaluated, the coefficients take insignificantly low values in low inflation expectations. This result indicates that individuals expecting low inflation do not establish a strong sensitivity despite taking into account capital and money variables. The second point is that the capital variable stock is statistically insignificant in medium and high inflation expectations. This result indicates that only monetary variables are taken into account in medium and high inflation expectations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Expected Inflation, Actual Inflation, Money Supply, Stock, Interest Rate

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