Bir Turizm Krizi Olarak Uluslararası Terörizm: Ülke Grupları İtibariyle Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 30, 51 - 76, 01.12.2015

Merter Akıncı Ömer Yılmaz

Öz

Bu çalışma; uluslararası terörizm, turizm harcamaları, ülkeye gelen turist sayısı ve turizm gelirleri arasındaki ilişkileri 2002-2011 dönemi itibariyle gelişmiş, gelişmekte olan ve azgelişmiş ülkeler için dengesiz panel veri analizleriyle incelemektedir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda ilk olarak değişkenlere ait durağanlık süreci incelenmiş ve değişkenlerin birinci fark düzeylerinde durağan olduğu saptanmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra, eşbütünleşme analizleri de uygulanmış ve Pedroni ve Kao koentegrasyon analizleri ifade edilen değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkilerin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. İlaveten, Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları ilgili değişkenler arasında en azından tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermiştir. Model tahmin sonuçları, bütün ülke gruplarında uluslararası terörizmin turizm üzerinde güçlü bir negatif etki yarattığını göstermiş, ancak gelişmiş ülkelerdeki turizm düzeyinin diğer ülke gruplarına kıyasla uluslararası terörizmden daha az etkilendiği görülmüştür. İlaveten, tahmin sonuçlarını teyit edebilmek amacıyla gelişmiş ülkelerde sosyal barışın turizm üzerindeki etkileri de araştırılmış ve analiz sonuçları sosyal barış sürecinin turizm üzerinde güçlü bir pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uluslararası Terörizm, Küresel Barış Süreci, Turizm, Panel Veri Analizi

International Terrorism as a Tourism Crisis: A Panel Data Analysis Based on Country Groups

Öz

In this paper, the relationship between international terrorism, tourism expenditures, number of
tourist arrivals and tourism receipts is investigated by focusing on developed, developing and lessdeveloped
countries in the period of 2002-2011 using unbalanced panel data analysis. For this
purpose, firstly the stationary process of the variables is examined and it is found that they are
stationary at their first difference level. Besides, cointegration tests are applied and Pedroni and
Kao cointegration analysis show the existence of long-run relationship among the mentioned
variables. Furthermore, the results of Granger causality analysis indicate that there is at least oneway
causality relationship among the related variables. The findings of estimation models point
out that international terrorism has a strong negative impact on tourism in all group of countries,
but developed nations’ tourism is slightly affected by international terrorism than the others. In
addition, in order to verify the findings the effects of the social peace on tourism in developed
countries is examined and the results of the analysis indicate that the process of social peace have a
positive impact on tourism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Terrorism, Process of Global Peace, Tourism, Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

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