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Bir Turizm Krizi Olarak Uluslararası Terörizm: Ülke Grupları İtibariyle Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 30, 51 - 76, 01.12.2015

Öz

Bu çalışma; uluslararası terörizm, turizm harcamaları, ülkeye gelen turist sayısı ve turizm gelirleri arasındaki ilişkileri 2002-2011 dönemi itibariyle gelişmiş, gelişmekte olan ve azgelişmiş ülkeler için dengesiz panel veri analizleriyle incelemektedir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda ilk olarak değişkenlere ait durağanlık süreci incelenmiş ve değişkenlerin birinci fark düzeylerinde durağan olduğu saptanmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra, eşbütünleşme analizleri de uygulanmış ve Pedroni ve Kao koentegrasyon analizleri ifade edilen değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkilerin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. İlaveten, Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçları ilgili değişkenler arasında en azından tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermiştir. Model tahmin sonuçları, bütün ülke gruplarında uluslararası terörizmin turizm üzerinde güçlü bir negatif etki yarattığını göstermiş, ancak gelişmiş ülkelerdeki turizm düzeyinin diğer ülke gruplarına kıyasla uluslararası terörizmden daha az etkilendiği görülmüştür. İlaveten, tahmin sonuçlarını teyit edebilmek amacıyla gelişmiş ülkelerde sosyal barışın turizm üzerindeki etkileri de araştırılmış ve analiz sonuçları sosyal barış sürecinin turizm üzerinde güçlü bir pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir

Kaynakça

  • Arana, Jorge E. and Carmelo J. Leon (2008). “The Impact of Terrorism on Tourism
  • Demand”. Annals of Tourism Research, 35(2): 229-315. Barros, Carlos P. (2003). “An Intervention Analysis of Terrorism: The Spanish ETA Case”.
  • Defece and Peace Economics, 14(6): 401-412. Brunt, Paul and Karen Cousins (2002). “The Extent of the Impact of Terrorism on
  • International Travel and Tourism at Specific Tourist Destinations”. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 4(3): 7-21. Charemza, Wojciech W. and Derek F. Deadman (1993). New Directions in Econometric
  • Practice. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. Çınar, Serkan (2010). “OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına GSYİH Durağan Mı? Panel Veri
  • Analizi”. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 29(2): 591-601. Drakos, Konstantinos and Ali M. Kutan (2003). “Regional Effects of Terrorism on
  • Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5): 641. Emsen, Ömer S. ve Mustafa K. Değer (2004). “Turizm Üzerine Terörizmin Etkileri: 1984
  • Türkiye Deneyimi”. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(7): 67-83. Enders, Walter and Todd Sandler (1991). “Causality Between Transnational Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Spain”. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 14(1): 49-58.
  • Enders, Walter, Todd Sandler and Grald F. Parise (1992). “An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism”. Kyklos, 45(4): 531-554.
  • Enders, Walter and Todd Sandler (1996). “Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in
  • Spain and Greece”. Kyklos, 49(3): 331-352. Feridun, Mete (2011). “Impact of Terrorism on Tourism in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from Turkey”. Applied Economics, 43(24): 3349-3354.
  • Granger, Clive W. J. (1964). Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series. New Jersey:
  • Princeton University Press. Granger, Clive W. J. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • Greenbaum, Robert T. and Andy Hultquist (2006). “The Economic Impact of Terrorist
  • Incidents on the Italian Hospitality Industry”. Urban Affairs Review, 42(1): 113-130. Gupta, Sanjeev, Benedict Clements, Rine Bhattacharya and Shamit Chakravarti (2004).
  • “Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low and Middle Income Countries”. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2): 403-321. Gut, Peter and Stephen Jarrell (2007). “Silver Lining on a Dark Cloud: The Impact of 9/11 on a Regional Tourist Destination”. Journal of Travel Research, 46(2): 147-153.
  • Hamilton, James D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Hausman, Jerry A. and William E. Taylor (1981). “Panel Data and Unobservable
  • Individual Effects”. Econometrica, 49(6): 1377-1398.
  • Kao, Chihwa (1999). “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in
  • Panel Data”. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1): 1-44. Kaya, Vedat ve Ömer Yılmaz (2006). “Bölgesel Enflasyon Bölgesel Büyüme İlişkisi:
  • Türkiye İçin Zaman Serisi ve Panel Veri Analizleri”. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, (247): 62-78. Kutlar, Aziz (2007). Ekonometriye Giriş. 1. Baskı. Ankara: Nobel Yayınları.
  • Lau, Evan, Xiao H. Chye and Chee K. Choong (2011). “Energy-Growth Causality: Asian
  • Countries Revisited”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 1(4): 149. Lee, Chien C. (2005). “Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A
  • Cointegrated Panel Analysis”. Energy Economics, 27(3): 415-427. Lepp, Andrew and Heather Gibson (2003). “Tourist Roles, Perceived Risk and International Tourism”. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(3): 606-624.
  • Llorca-Vivero, Rafael (2008). “Terrorism and International Tourism: New Evidence”.
  • Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2): 169-188. McKenna, John (2004). Implications of Transnational Terrorism on
  • InternationalTrade.http://econ.duke.edu/uploads/assets/dje/2006/McKenna.pdf /08 Nisan 2014.
  • Neumayer, Eric (2005). “The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism: Dynamic Cross
  • National Estimation”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2): 259-281. Pedroni, Peter (1999). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1): 653
  • Pizam, Aabraham and Ginger Smith (2000). “Tourism and Terrorism: A Quantitative
  • Analysis of Major Terrorist Acts and Their Impact on Tourism Destinations”. Tourism Economics, 6(2): 123-138. Pizam, Abraham and Aliza Fleischer (2002). “Severity Versus Frequency of Acts of
  • Terrorism: Which Has a Larger Impact on Tourism Demand?”. Journal of Tourism Research, 40(3): 337-339. Richter, Linda K. (1983). “Tourism Politics and Political Science: A Case of Not so Benign
  • Neglect”. Annals of Tourism Research, 10(3): 313-335. Sönmez, Sevil (1994). Managing Tourism Crises: A Guidebook. Clemson SC: Clemson University Press.
  • Sönmez, Sevil (1998). “Tourism, Terrorism and Political Instability”. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(2): 416-456.
  • Sönmez, Sevil and Alan R. Graefe (1998). “Influence of Terrorism Risk on Foreign
  • Tourism Decisions”. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1): 112-144. Sönmez, Sevil, Yiorgos Apostolopoulos and Peter Tarlow (1999). “Tourism in Crisis:
  • Managing the Effects of Terrorism”. Journal of Travel Research, 38(1): 13-18. Thompson, Alexi (2011). “Terrorism and Tourism in Developed Versus Developing
  • Countries”. Tourism Economics, 17(3): 693-700. Yaya, Mehmet E. (2009). “Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Turkey”. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6): 477-497.
  • Yıldırım, Jülide, Nadir Öcal and Nebile Korucu (2007). Analysing the Determinants of Terrorism
  • Regression.http://www.ub.edu/sea2009.com/Papers/10.pdf/ 01 Nisan 2014. using Geographically Weighted

International Terrorism as a Tourism Crisis: A Panel Data Analysis Based on Country Groups

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 30, 51 - 76, 01.12.2015

Öz

In this paper, the relationship between international terrorism, tourism expenditures, number of
tourist arrivals and tourism receipts is investigated by focusing on developed, developing and lessdeveloped
countries in the period of 2002-2011 using unbalanced panel data analysis. For this
purpose, firstly the stationary process of the variables is examined and it is found that they are
stationary at their first difference level. Besides, cointegration tests are applied and Pedroni and
Kao cointegration analysis show the existence of long-run relationship among the mentioned
variables. Furthermore, the results of Granger causality analysis indicate that there is at least oneway
causality relationship among the related variables. The findings of estimation models point
out that international terrorism has a strong negative impact on tourism in all group of countries,
but developed nations’ tourism is slightly affected by international terrorism than the others. In
addition, in order to verify the findings the effects of the social peace on tourism in developed
countries is examined and the results of the analysis indicate that the process of social peace have a
positive impact on tourism.

Kaynakça

  • Arana, Jorge E. and Carmelo J. Leon (2008). “The Impact of Terrorism on Tourism
  • Demand”. Annals of Tourism Research, 35(2): 229-315. Barros, Carlos P. (2003). “An Intervention Analysis of Terrorism: The Spanish ETA Case”.
  • Defece and Peace Economics, 14(6): 401-412. Brunt, Paul and Karen Cousins (2002). “The Extent of the Impact of Terrorism on
  • International Travel and Tourism at Specific Tourist Destinations”. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 4(3): 7-21. Charemza, Wojciech W. and Derek F. Deadman (1993). New Directions in Econometric
  • Practice. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. Çınar, Serkan (2010). “OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına GSYİH Durağan Mı? Panel Veri
  • Analizi”. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 29(2): 591-601. Drakos, Konstantinos and Ali M. Kutan (2003). “Regional Effects of Terrorism on
  • Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5): 641. Emsen, Ömer S. ve Mustafa K. Değer (2004). “Turizm Üzerine Terörizmin Etkileri: 1984
  • Türkiye Deneyimi”. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(7): 67-83. Enders, Walter and Todd Sandler (1991). “Causality Between Transnational Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Spain”. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 14(1): 49-58.
  • Enders, Walter, Todd Sandler and Grald F. Parise (1992). “An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism”. Kyklos, 45(4): 531-554.
  • Enders, Walter and Todd Sandler (1996). “Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in
  • Spain and Greece”. Kyklos, 49(3): 331-352. Feridun, Mete (2011). “Impact of Terrorism on Tourism in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from Turkey”. Applied Economics, 43(24): 3349-3354.
  • Granger, Clive W. J. (1964). Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series. New Jersey:
  • Princeton University Press. Granger, Clive W. J. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • Greenbaum, Robert T. and Andy Hultquist (2006). “The Economic Impact of Terrorist
  • Incidents on the Italian Hospitality Industry”. Urban Affairs Review, 42(1): 113-130. Gupta, Sanjeev, Benedict Clements, Rine Bhattacharya and Shamit Chakravarti (2004).
  • “Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low and Middle Income Countries”. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2): 403-321. Gut, Peter and Stephen Jarrell (2007). “Silver Lining on a Dark Cloud: The Impact of 9/11 on a Regional Tourist Destination”. Journal of Travel Research, 46(2): 147-153.
  • Hamilton, James D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Hausman, Jerry A. and William E. Taylor (1981). “Panel Data and Unobservable
  • Individual Effects”. Econometrica, 49(6): 1377-1398.
  • Kao, Chihwa (1999). “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in
  • Panel Data”. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1): 1-44. Kaya, Vedat ve Ömer Yılmaz (2006). “Bölgesel Enflasyon Bölgesel Büyüme İlişkisi:
  • Türkiye İçin Zaman Serisi ve Panel Veri Analizleri”. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, (247): 62-78. Kutlar, Aziz (2007). Ekonometriye Giriş. 1. Baskı. Ankara: Nobel Yayınları.
  • Lau, Evan, Xiao H. Chye and Chee K. Choong (2011). “Energy-Growth Causality: Asian
  • Countries Revisited”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 1(4): 149. Lee, Chien C. (2005). “Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A
  • Cointegrated Panel Analysis”. Energy Economics, 27(3): 415-427. Lepp, Andrew and Heather Gibson (2003). “Tourist Roles, Perceived Risk and International Tourism”. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(3): 606-624.
  • Llorca-Vivero, Rafael (2008). “Terrorism and International Tourism: New Evidence”.
  • Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2): 169-188. McKenna, John (2004). Implications of Transnational Terrorism on
  • InternationalTrade.http://econ.duke.edu/uploads/assets/dje/2006/McKenna.pdf /08 Nisan 2014.
  • Neumayer, Eric (2005). “The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism: Dynamic Cross
  • National Estimation”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2): 259-281. Pedroni, Peter (1999). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1): 653
  • Pizam, Aabraham and Ginger Smith (2000). “Tourism and Terrorism: A Quantitative
  • Analysis of Major Terrorist Acts and Their Impact on Tourism Destinations”. Tourism Economics, 6(2): 123-138. Pizam, Abraham and Aliza Fleischer (2002). “Severity Versus Frequency of Acts of
  • Terrorism: Which Has a Larger Impact on Tourism Demand?”. Journal of Tourism Research, 40(3): 337-339. Richter, Linda K. (1983). “Tourism Politics and Political Science: A Case of Not so Benign
  • Neglect”. Annals of Tourism Research, 10(3): 313-335. Sönmez, Sevil (1994). Managing Tourism Crises: A Guidebook. Clemson SC: Clemson University Press.
  • Sönmez, Sevil (1998). “Tourism, Terrorism and Political Instability”. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(2): 416-456.
  • Sönmez, Sevil and Alan R. Graefe (1998). “Influence of Terrorism Risk on Foreign
  • Tourism Decisions”. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1): 112-144. Sönmez, Sevil, Yiorgos Apostolopoulos and Peter Tarlow (1999). “Tourism in Crisis:
  • Managing the Effects of Terrorism”. Journal of Travel Research, 38(1): 13-18. Thompson, Alexi (2011). “Terrorism and Tourism in Developed Versus Developing
  • Countries”. Tourism Economics, 17(3): 693-700. Yaya, Mehmet E. (2009). “Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Turkey”. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6): 477-497.
  • Yıldırım, Jülide, Nadir Öcal and Nebile Korucu (2007). Analysing the Determinants of Terrorism
  • Regression.http://www.ub.edu/sea2009.com/Papers/10.pdf/ 01 Nisan 2014. using Geographically Weighted
Toplam 41 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA93JT52NY
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Merter Akıncı Bu kişi benim

Ömer Yılmaz Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Sayı: 30

Kaynak Göster

APA Akıncı, M., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2015). Bir Turizm Krizi Olarak Uluslararası Terörizm: Ülke Grupları İtibariyle Panel Veri Analizi. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(30), 51-76.

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