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Belirsizliğin Özel Tüketim Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2010, Sayı: 20, 107 - 126, 01.12.2010

Öz

Tüketim harcamaları GSYH’nin en büyük bileşeni olduğu için ekonomik sistem için hayati önem taşımaktadır. Tüketim harcamalarında ortaya çıkan dalgalanmalar GSYH, istihdam ve enflasyon belirsizliğini artırmaktadır. Diğer yandan, yapılan çeşitli araştırmalar belirsizlik ortamında tüketicilerin tüketim harcamalarını azaltarak tedbiri tasarruflarını artırdıklarını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu noktada belirsizlik ve tüketim harcamaları arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ortaya çıkmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, belirsizlik ve tüketim harcamaları arasındaki ilişkiyi irdelemek ve bu konuya ilişkin politika önerileri geliştirmektir

Kaynakça

  • Abaan, Ernur Demir (1998) “Fayda Teorisi ve Rasyonel Seçimler”, TCMB Araştırma Genel Müdürlüğü, Tartışma Tebliği No: 2002/3, Ankara, 1998.
  • Aksoy, Tolga ve Şahin, Işıl (2009), “Belirsizlik Altında Karar Alma: Geleneksel ve Modern Yaklaşımlar”, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, No. 2009/7, Kasım – 2009.
  • Albarran, Pedro (2000) “Income Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving: Evidence from Household Rotating Panel Data”, CEMFI, Working Paper no. 0008, Haziran – 2000.
  • Bergman, U. Michael (2005), “Dynamic Optimization and Utility Functions”, Ders Notları, Kopenhag Üniversitesi, Danimarka, Eylül – 2005.
  • Brumberg, R. ve Modligliani, F. (1954), Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross Section Data, içinde Post Keynesian Economics, (ed. K. K. Kuri- hara), Allen and Unwin, New Brunswick.
  • Caballero, R. (1990), “Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings”, Journal of Mone- tary Economics, vol 25, 1990, ss. 118 – 124.
  • Charemza, Wojciech W. ve Deadman, Derek F. (1992), New Directions in Econometric Practice, General to Specific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Ed- ward Elgar Publications Limited.
  • Davidson, J., Hendry, D., Srba, F., ve Yeo, S. (1978), “Econometric Modelling of the Aggre- gate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers, Expenditure and Income in the UK”, Economic Journal, vol. 88, 1978, ss.661–692.
  • Dixit, A., ve Pindyck, R.S. (1994), Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Pres.
  • Friedman, Milton A. (1957), Theory and Consumption, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 39, 1988.
  • Granger, C. W. J., ve Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious Regression in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, vol.2, 1974.
  • Guariglia, Alessandra (2001), “Saving Behaviour and Earnings Uncertainty: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey”, Journal of Population Economics, vol. 14, 2001, ss. 619 – 634.
  • Guiso, L., Jappelli T. ve Terlizzese, D. (1992), “Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving”, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 30, 1992, ss. 307 – 337.
  • Hall, R. E. (1978) “Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle – Permanent Income Hypothe- sis: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.86, 1978, ss.971-988.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.12(2-3), 1988.
  • Leland, H. (1968), “Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving”, Quar- terly Journal of Economics, vol 82, 1968, ss. 465 – 472.
  • Levhari D., ve Srinivasan, T.N. (1969), “Optimal Savings under Uncertainty”, Review of Eco- nomic Studies, vol. 36, 1969, s. 29.
  • Lyhagen, Johan (2001), “The Effect of Precautionary Saving on Consumption in Sweden”, Applied Economics, vol. 33, 2001, ss. 673 – 681.
  • Sandmo, A. (1970), “The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions”, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 37, 1970, ss. 353 – 360.
  • Shoemaker, Paul J. H. (1982), “The Expected Utility Model: Its Variance, Purposes, Evi- dence and Limitations”, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 20, no.2, 1982, ss.529–563.
  • TUİK, İstatistiksel Tablolar, Harcamalar Yöntemiyle GSYH, 2010
  • Weil, P. (1993), “Precautionary Savings and the Permanent Income Hypothesis”, Review of Economic Studies, vol.60, 1993, ss. 367 – 383.

The Effects of Uncertainty on Private Consumption: Turkey Example

Yıl 2010, Sayı: 20, 107 - 126, 01.12.2010

Öz

Since private consumption is the largest component of GDP, it has a crucial
role in economic system. Therefore, the fluctuations in consumption increase
the rate of unemployment rate and inflation. On the other hand, some surveys suggest
that households increase their precautionary savings, which leads to a decrease
in consumption, under uncertainty. At this point, there occurs bilateral causality
between uncertainty and consumption.

Kaynakça

  • Abaan, Ernur Demir (1998) “Fayda Teorisi ve Rasyonel Seçimler”, TCMB Araştırma Genel Müdürlüğü, Tartışma Tebliği No: 2002/3, Ankara, 1998.
  • Aksoy, Tolga ve Şahin, Işıl (2009), “Belirsizlik Altında Karar Alma: Geleneksel ve Modern Yaklaşımlar”, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, No. 2009/7, Kasım – 2009.
  • Albarran, Pedro (2000) “Income Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving: Evidence from Household Rotating Panel Data”, CEMFI, Working Paper no. 0008, Haziran – 2000.
  • Bergman, U. Michael (2005), “Dynamic Optimization and Utility Functions”, Ders Notları, Kopenhag Üniversitesi, Danimarka, Eylül – 2005.
  • Brumberg, R. ve Modligliani, F. (1954), Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross Section Data, içinde Post Keynesian Economics, (ed. K. K. Kuri- hara), Allen and Unwin, New Brunswick.
  • Caballero, R. (1990), “Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings”, Journal of Mone- tary Economics, vol 25, 1990, ss. 118 – 124.
  • Charemza, Wojciech W. ve Deadman, Derek F. (1992), New Directions in Econometric Practice, General to Specific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Ed- ward Elgar Publications Limited.
  • Davidson, J., Hendry, D., Srba, F., ve Yeo, S. (1978), “Econometric Modelling of the Aggre- gate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers, Expenditure and Income in the UK”, Economic Journal, vol. 88, 1978, ss.661–692.
  • Dixit, A., ve Pindyck, R.S. (1994), Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Pres.
  • Friedman, Milton A. (1957), Theory and Consumption, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 39, 1988.
  • Granger, C. W. J., ve Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious Regression in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, vol.2, 1974.
  • Guariglia, Alessandra (2001), “Saving Behaviour and Earnings Uncertainty: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey”, Journal of Population Economics, vol. 14, 2001, ss. 619 – 634.
  • Guiso, L., Jappelli T. ve Terlizzese, D. (1992), “Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving”, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 30, 1992, ss. 307 – 337.
  • Hall, R. E. (1978) “Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle – Permanent Income Hypothe- sis: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.86, 1978, ss.971-988.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.12(2-3), 1988.
  • Leland, H. (1968), “Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving”, Quar- terly Journal of Economics, vol 82, 1968, ss. 465 – 472.
  • Levhari D., ve Srinivasan, T.N. (1969), “Optimal Savings under Uncertainty”, Review of Eco- nomic Studies, vol. 36, 1969, s. 29.
  • Lyhagen, Johan (2001), “The Effect of Precautionary Saving on Consumption in Sweden”, Applied Economics, vol. 33, 2001, ss. 673 – 681.
  • Sandmo, A. (1970), “The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions”, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 37, 1970, ss. 353 – 360.
  • Shoemaker, Paul J. H. (1982), “The Expected Utility Model: Its Variance, Purposes, Evi- dence and Limitations”, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 20, no.2, 1982, ss.529–563.
  • TUİK, İstatistiksel Tablolar, Harcamalar Yöntemiyle GSYH, 2010
  • Weil, P. (1993), “Precautionary Savings and the Permanent Income Hypothesis”, Review of Economic Studies, vol.60, 1993, ss. 367 – 383.
Toplam 23 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA54VR79PE
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Burçak Müge Vural Bu kişi benim

Şevket Alper Koç Bu kişi benim

Koray Vural Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2010 Sayı: 20

Kaynak Göster

APA Vural, B. M., Koç, Ş. A., & Vural, K. (2010). Belirsizliğin Özel Tüketim Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(20), 107-126.

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