Türkiye’de Petrol Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasindaki Nedensellik Ilişkisi

Yıl 2008, Sayı: 15, 45 - 55, 01.06.2008

Cengiz Aktaş Veysel Yılmaz

Öz

Özet: İmalat sanayii başta olmak üzere pek çok sektör için temel girdilerden biri olan
petrol, Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesi bakımından da önem arzetmektedir. Bu makalede,
Türkiye’nin 1970-2004 dönemindeki yıllık verilerle petrol tüketimi ve GSMH arasındaki
kısa ve uzun dönemli nedensellik ilişkisi araştırıldı. Yapılan analiz sonunda petrol tüketimi
ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri aynı derecede (I(1)) bütünleşik olduklarından Granger
nedensellik testi uygulandı. Çalışmada, kısa ve uzun dönemde petrol tüketimi ve ekonomik
büyüme arasında iki yönlü nedensellik bulundu.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik, Eşbütünleşme

Causal Relationship Between Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey

Öz

Beside of the manufacturing industries, oil is one of the main inputs for many other sectors. Oil is also very important for the Turkey’s economic growt. In this paper was tried to examine the short- and long-run causality between oil consumption and Gross National Product for Turkey using annual data covering the period of 1970-2004. As economic growth and oil consumption variables used in empirical analysis was same order of integration (I(1)) employed Granger causality test. In this study was found that exists bidirectional Granger causality between oil consumption and economic growth in the short and long run

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Consumption, Economic Growth, Causality, Cointegration

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