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Dış Ticaret ve Beşeri Sermayenin Büyümedeki Rolü: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2005, Sayı: 9, 180 - 196, 01.06.2005

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı büyüme, dış ticaret ve beşeri sermaye arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye örneğinde test etmektir. Uzun dönemli ilişkinin testinde eşbütünleşme analizi, kısa dönemli ilişkinin testinde ise FIML metodu ve Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Kısıtlanmamış eşbütünleşme analizinde gelir düzeyi ile dış ticaret hacmi ve beşeri sermaye; FIML metodu ile yapılan analizde ise büyüme ile dış ticaret hacmindeki değişmenin iki gecikmeli değeri arasında pozitif ilişki bulunmuştur. Granger nedensellik ilişkisi gelirden dış ticaret hacmi ve beşeri sermayeye doğru çıkmıştır

Kaynakça

  • Ades, A. and E. Glaeser (1994), “Evidence on Growth, Increasing Returns and The Extent of The Market”, NBER Working Papers, No: 4714; 1-53.
  • Aghion, P. and P. Howitt (1992), “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction”, Economet- rica, 60(2); 323-351.
  • Aghion, P. and P. Howitt (1998), Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge.
  • Aghion, P. C. Harris and J. Vickers (1997), “Competition and Growth With Step-by-Step Innova- tion: An Example”, European Economic Review, 41(3-5); 771-783.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve İlker Domaç (1995), “Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, Cilt 22, Sayı: 1 ; 67-77
  • Brander, J.A., P. R. Krugman (1983), “A Reciprocal Dumping Model of International Trade”, Journal of International Economics, 15; 313-323.
  • Darrat, A. (1987), “Are Exports An Engine of Growth? Another Look at the Evidence”, Applied Economics, 19; 277-283.
  • Devereux, M.B. (1999), “Growth and the Dynamics of Trade Liberalization”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23; 773-795.
  • Devereux, M.B.(1997),“Growth, Specialization and Trade Liberalization”, International Economic Review, 38(3); 565-585.
  • Dhawan U. and B. Biswal (1999), “Re-examining Export-led Growth Hypothesis: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis for India”, Applied Economics, 31; 525-530.
  • DİE (2001), İstatistik Göstergeler, 1923-1998, Ankara.
  • Domar, E. (1946), “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment”, Econometrica, vol. 14; 137-147.
  • Doornik J, D. F. Hendry, B. Nielsen (1998), “Inference in Cointegrating Models UK M1 Revisited”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Special Issue, 533-565.
  • Doornik J, D.F. Hendry (1997), Modeling Dynamic Systems Using Pc FIML 9.0 for Windows, In- ternational Thomson Business Press, London.
  • DPT (2002), Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler (1950-2001), Ankara, Temmuz 2002.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1993), “Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Coun- tries”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31: 3; 1358-1393.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1997), “Trade Policy, Growth and Income Distribution” American Economic Review, 87: 2; 205-210.
  • Ege, Aylin (1993), Economic Fluctuations in Turkey 1950-1980: An Econometric Study, Ankara: Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Yayınları, No: 17.
  • Feder, G. (1982), “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 12; 59-73.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating Casual Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37; 424-438.
  • Greenaway D., W. Morgan and P. Wright (1997) “Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries:Some New Evidence”, World Development, 25(11);1885-92.
  • Greenaway, D. (1988), Economic Development and International Trade, St.Martin’s Press, New York.
  • Greenaway, D., W. Morgan and P.Wright, (1998), “Trade Reform, Adjustment and Growth: What Does The Evidence Tell Us?”, Economic Journal, 108(450); 1547-61.
  • Greenaway, D., W. Morgan and P.Wright, (1999), “Exports, Export Composition and Growth”, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 8: 1; 141-151.
  • Greenaway, D., W. Morgan and P.Wright, (2002), “Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 67; 229-244.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1990a), “Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth”, American Economic Review, 80(4) ; 796-815.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1990b), “Trade, Innovation and Growth”, American Economic Re- view, 80(2) ; 86-91.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1991a), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT, Cam- bridge.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1991b),“Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth”, Review of Eco- nomic Studies, 58; 43-61.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1991c), “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers and Growth”, European Eco- nomic Review, 35; 517-526.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1995), “Trade Wars and Trade Talks”, Journal of Political Econ- omy, 103(4); 675-708.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman, (1989), “Product Development and International Trade”, Journal of Political Economy, 97(6) ;1261-1283.
  • Harrod, R. (1939), “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, Economic Journal, vol. 49: 14-33.
  • Hendry, D. F. (1995), Dynamic Econometrics, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Mod- els, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointe- gration with Applications to Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics, 52, 169-210.
  • Jung, W.S. and P. J. Marshall, (1985), “Exports Growth and Causality in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 15; 1-12.
  • Kavoussi, R. (1984), “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 14; 241-250.
  • Kwan, A., J. Cotsomitis and B. Kwok (1999), “Exports, Economic Growth and Structural Invari- ance: Evidence from Some Asian NICs”, Applied Economics, 31; 493-498.
  • Levin A. and L. K. Raut, (1997), “Complemantaries Between Exports and Human Capital in Eco- nomic Growth: Evidence from The Semi-Industrialized Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change; 155-173.
  • Lucas, Robert E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics,12; 3-42.
  • Lucas, Robert E. (1993), “Making a Miracle”, Econometrica, 61(2); 251-272.
  • Maliye Bakanlığı (1995), Bütçe Gider ve Gelir Gerçekleşmeleri 1924-1995, Ankara: Bütçe ve Mali Kontrol Müdürlüğü (BÜMKO)Yayını, No: 1995/5.
  • Michaely, M. (1977), “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 4; 49-53.
  • Moosa, Imad A. (1999), “Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Australia”, Applied Economics, 31; 903-906.
  • Ng, S., S. Perron (2001), “Lag Length Selection and Construction of Unite Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica 69,1515-1554.
  • Ochoa, Orlando A. (1996), Growth, Trade and Endogenous Technology: A Study of OECD Manu- facturing, St. Martin Press, New York.
  • Özmen E. ve G. Furtun, (1998), “Export-led Growth Hypothesis and the Turkish Data: An Em- pirical Investigation”, ODTU Gelişme Dergisi, Cilt: 25, Sayı: 3, 491-503.
  • Özmen, A. M. Özer ve S. Türkyılmaz (1999), “Türkiye’de İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında- ki Nedenselliğe İlişkin Bir Uygulama Denemesi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Prof. Dr. Orhan Oğuz’a Armağan, Yayın No: 640, 379-392.
  • Pio, Alessandro (1993), “İçsel Büyüme Teorisinde Yeni Gelişmeler Nelerdir? Bunlar Gelişmekte Olan ve Piyasa Ekonomisine Geçiş Sürecini Yaşayan Ülkeler Açısından Ne Ölçüde Uygulanabi- lir?”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt: 4, Sayı: 10, 1993; 109-136.
  • Smith, Adam (1997), Ulusların Zenginliği, (Çev: A. Yunus ve M. Bakırcı), İstanbul: Alan Yayıncılık, Yayın No: 37.
  • Solow, Robert M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Jour- nal of Economics, 70; 65-94.
  • Stokey, N. L. (1991), “Human Capital, Product Quality and Growth” Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 106(2); 587-616.
  • World Bank (2000), World Development Report, 2000/2001.
  • Yiğidim A. ve N. Köse, (1997), “İhracat İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980-1996), Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt: 8, Sayı: 26; 71-85.

The Role of Trade and Human Capital in Growth: Turkish Case

Yıl 2005, Sayı: 9, 180 - 196, 01.06.2005

Öz

The objective of this study is to examine the existence of relationship among
growth, trade and human capital in Turkey case. Co-integration analysis was used for
testing long term relationship and FIML and Granger tests were used to test short term
relationship. Positive relationships were found among income level, trade and human capital
in unrestricted co-integration analysis; two lags of changes in trade volume and
growth in FIML method. Granger causality relation was found from income to trade volume
and human capital.

Kaynakça

  • Ades, A. and E. Glaeser (1994), “Evidence on Growth, Increasing Returns and The Extent of The Market”, NBER Working Papers, No: 4714; 1-53.
  • Aghion, P. and P. Howitt (1992), “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction”, Economet- rica, 60(2); 323-351.
  • Aghion, P. and P. Howitt (1998), Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge.
  • Aghion, P. C. Harris and J. Vickers (1997), “Competition and Growth With Step-by-Step Innova- tion: An Example”, European Economic Review, 41(3-5); 771-783.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve İlker Domaç (1995), “Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, Cilt 22, Sayı: 1 ; 67-77
  • Brander, J.A., P. R. Krugman (1983), “A Reciprocal Dumping Model of International Trade”, Journal of International Economics, 15; 313-323.
  • Darrat, A. (1987), “Are Exports An Engine of Growth? Another Look at the Evidence”, Applied Economics, 19; 277-283.
  • Devereux, M.B. (1999), “Growth and the Dynamics of Trade Liberalization”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23; 773-795.
  • Devereux, M.B.(1997),“Growth, Specialization and Trade Liberalization”, International Economic Review, 38(3); 565-585.
  • Dhawan U. and B. Biswal (1999), “Re-examining Export-led Growth Hypothesis: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis for India”, Applied Economics, 31; 525-530.
  • DİE (2001), İstatistik Göstergeler, 1923-1998, Ankara.
  • Domar, E. (1946), “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment”, Econometrica, vol. 14; 137-147.
  • Doornik J, D. F. Hendry, B. Nielsen (1998), “Inference in Cointegrating Models UK M1 Revisited”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Special Issue, 533-565.
  • Doornik J, D.F. Hendry (1997), Modeling Dynamic Systems Using Pc FIML 9.0 for Windows, In- ternational Thomson Business Press, London.
  • DPT (2002), Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler (1950-2001), Ankara, Temmuz 2002.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1993), “Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Coun- tries”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31: 3; 1358-1393.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1997), “Trade Policy, Growth and Income Distribution” American Economic Review, 87: 2; 205-210.
  • Ege, Aylin (1993), Economic Fluctuations in Turkey 1950-1980: An Econometric Study, Ankara: Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Yayınları, No: 17.
  • Feder, G. (1982), “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 12; 59-73.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating Casual Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37; 424-438.
  • Greenaway D., W. Morgan and P. Wright (1997) “Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries:Some New Evidence”, World Development, 25(11);1885-92.
  • Greenaway, D. (1988), Economic Development and International Trade, St.Martin’s Press, New York.
  • Greenaway, D., W. Morgan and P.Wright, (1998), “Trade Reform, Adjustment and Growth: What Does The Evidence Tell Us?”, Economic Journal, 108(450); 1547-61.
  • Greenaway, D., W. Morgan and P.Wright, (1999), “Exports, Export Composition and Growth”, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 8: 1; 141-151.
  • Greenaway, D., W. Morgan and P.Wright, (2002), “Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 67; 229-244.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1990a), “Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth”, American Economic Review, 80(4) ; 796-815.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1990b), “Trade, Innovation and Growth”, American Economic Re- view, 80(2) ; 86-91.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1991a), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT, Cam- bridge.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1991b),“Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth”, Review of Eco- nomic Studies, 58; 43-61.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1991c), “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers and Growth”, European Eco- nomic Review, 35; 517-526.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman (1995), “Trade Wars and Trade Talks”, Journal of Political Econ- omy, 103(4); 675-708.
  • Grossman G. and E. Helpman, (1989), “Product Development and International Trade”, Journal of Political Economy, 97(6) ;1261-1283.
  • Harrod, R. (1939), “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, Economic Journal, vol. 49: 14-33.
  • Hendry, D. F. (1995), Dynamic Econometrics, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Mod- els, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointe- gration with Applications to Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics, 52, 169-210.
  • Jung, W.S. and P. J. Marshall, (1985), “Exports Growth and Causality in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 15; 1-12.
  • Kavoussi, R. (1984), “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 14; 241-250.
  • Kwan, A., J. Cotsomitis and B. Kwok (1999), “Exports, Economic Growth and Structural Invari- ance: Evidence from Some Asian NICs”, Applied Economics, 31; 493-498.
  • Levin A. and L. K. Raut, (1997), “Complemantaries Between Exports and Human Capital in Eco- nomic Growth: Evidence from The Semi-Industrialized Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change; 155-173.
  • Lucas, Robert E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics,12; 3-42.
  • Lucas, Robert E. (1993), “Making a Miracle”, Econometrica, 61(2); 251-272.
  • Maliye Bakanlığı (1995), Bütçe Gider ve Gelir Gerçekleşmeleri 1924-1995, Ankara: Bütçe ve Mali Kontrol Müdürlüğü (BÜMKO)Yayını, No: 1995/5.
  • Michaely, M. (1977), “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 4; 49-53.
  • Moosa, Imad A. (1999), “Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Australia”, Applied Economics, 31; 903-906.
  • Ng, S., S. Perron (2001), “Lag Length Selection and Construction of Unite Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica 69,1515-1554.
  • Ochoa, Orlando A. (1996), Growth, Trade and Endogenous Technology: A Study of OECD Manu- facturing, St. Martin Press, New York.
  • Özmen E. ve G. Furtun, (1998), “Export-led Growth Hypothesis and the Turkish Data: An Em- pirical Investigation”, ODTU Gelişme Dergisi, Cilt: 25, Sayı: 3, 491-503.
  • Özmen, A. M. Özer ve S. Türkyılmaz (1999), “Türkiye’de İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında- ki Nedenselliğe İlişkin Bir Uygulama Denemesi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Prof. Dr. Orhan Oğuz’a Armağan, Yayın No: 640, 379-392.
  • Pio, Alessandro (1993), “İçsel Büyüme Teorisinde Yeni Gelişmeler Nelerdir? Bunlar Gelişmekte Olan ve Piyasa Ekonomisine Geçiş Sürecini Yaşayan Ülkeler Açısından Ne Ölçüde Uygulanabi- lir?”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt: 4, Sayı: 10, 1993; 109-136.
  • Smith, Adam (1997), Ulusların Zenginliği, (Çev: A. Yunus ve M. Bakırcı), İstanbul: Alan Yayıncılık, Yayın No: 37.
  • Solow, Robert M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Jour- nal of Economics, 70; 65-94.
  • Stokey, N. L. (1991), “Human Capital, Product Quality and Growth” Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 106(2); 587-616.
  • World Bank (2000), World Development Report, 2000/2001.
  • Yiğidim A. ve N. Köse, (1997), “İhracat İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980-1996), Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt: 8, Sayı: 26; 71-85.
Toplam 56 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA36PH68MF
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Osman Demir Bu kişi benim

Aziz Kutlar Bu kişi benim

Adem Üzümcü

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2005
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2005 Sayı: 9

Kaynak Göster

APA Demir, O., Kutlar, A., & Üzümcü, A. (2005). Dış Ticaret ve Beşeri Sermayenin Büyümedeki Rolü: Türkiye Örneği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(9), 180-196.

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