Dış Ticaret ve Beşeri Sermayenin Büyümedeki Rolü: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2005, Sayı: 9, 180 - 196, 01.06.2005

Osman Demir Aziz Kutlar Adem Üzümcü

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı büyüme, dış ticaret ve beşeri sermaye arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye örneğinde test etmektir. Uzun dönemli ilişkinin testinde eşbütünleşme analizi, kısa dönemli ilişkinin testinde ise FIML metodu ve Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Kısıtlanmamış eşbütünleşme analizinde gelir düzeyi ile dış ticaret hacmi ve beşeri sermaye; FIML metodu ile yapılan analizde ise büyüme ile dış ticaret hacmindeki değişmenin iki gecikmeli değeri arasında pozitif ilişki bulunmuştur. Granger nedensellik ilişkisi gelirden dış ticaret hacmi ve beşeri sermayeye doğru çıkmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

İçsel Büyüme, Eşbütünleşme, Granger Nedenselliği, Türkiye

The Role of Trade and Human Capital in Growth: Turkish Case

Öz

The objective of this study is to examine the existence of relationship among
growth, trade and human capital in Turkey case. Co-integration analysis was used for
testing long term relationship and FIML and Granger tests were used to test short term
relationship. Positive relationships were found among income level, trade and human capital
in unrestricted co-integration analysis; two lags of changes in trade volume and
growth in FIML method. Granger causality relation was found from income to trade volume
and human capital.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Endogenous Growth, Trade, Co-integration, Granger Causality, Turkey

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