The Effect of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector in Underdeveloped Countries

Öz

The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector in 37 underdeveloped countries with the panel data analysis method for the period 2002-2019. In the study second generation panel data analyzes used in case of cross-section dependence and heterogeneity such as Westerlund (2007) bootstrap panel cointegration test and Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test were performed. As a result of the bootstrap panel cointegration test, Westerlund (2007) found that there is a long-term relationship between climate change and the agriculture sector in 37 underdeveloped countries. Co-integration coefficients on the whole panel and country basis were estimated by the AMG method. In the whole panel, it was concluded that climate change affects the agriculture sector negatively, and it was concluded that climate change can have a positive effect as well as a negative and significant effect on the agricultural sector on a country basis. As a result of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test, a single causality relationship was found from climate change to the agriculture sector. As a result, it can be said that climate change negatively affects the agriculture sector in 37 underdeveloped countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate change
• Agricultural sector
• Panel data analysis

Azgelişmiş Ülkelerde İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, 2002-2019 dönemi için panel veri analiz yöntemiyle 37 azgelişmiş ülkede iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada Westerlund (2007) bootstrap panel eşbütünleşme testi ve Dumitrescu ve Hurlin panel nedensellik testi gibi yatay kesit bağımlılık ve heterojenlik durumunda kullanılan ikinci nesil panel veri analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Westerlund (2007) bootstrap panel eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda 37 azgelişmiş ülkede iklim değişikliği ve tarım sektörü arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin var olduğu bulunmuştur. Panelin bütünü ve ülke bazında eşbütünleşme katsayıları AMG yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Panelin bütününde iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörünü olumsuz etkilediği sonucuna varılmış, ülke bazında da iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkisinin yanı sıra pozitif bir etkisinin olabileceği sonucu elde edilmiştir. Dumitrescu ve Hurlin panel nedensellik testi sonucunda ise iklim değişikliğinden tarım sektörüne doğru tek bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Sonuç itibariyle, ele alınan 37 azgelişmiş ülkede iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörünü olumsuz etkilediği söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim değişikliği
• Tarım sektörü
• Panel veri analizi

Kaynakça

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