Turist Varış Sayısı Akdeniz Ülkelerinde Ekonominin İtici Gücü Müdür? : Arttırılmış Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi

Öz

Bu makalede, seçilmiş Akdeniz ülkelerinde turist varışları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki araştırılmaktadır. Yıllık veriler 1995-2017 dönemi için turist varış sayısını, reel efektif döviz kurunu ve ekonomik büyümeyi dikkate almaktadır. Çalışmada, her ülkenin katsayı tahminleri Artırılmış Ortalama Grubu (AMG) tahmincisi kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Bu testlerin uygulanmasından önce yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve homojenlik testleri yapılmıştır. AMG tahmincisi sonuçları turist varış sayısının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, turist girişlerinin Fransa, Malta, İspanya, Kıbrıs, Fas ve Tunus için ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Araştırma bulgularına göre, bu ülkelerde uygulanan turizm politikalarının turist varış sayısını artırdığı ifade edilebilir. Ayrıca Yunanistan, İtalya ve İsrail için anlamlı bir etki bulunmadı.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı
• Arttırılmış Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi
• Akdeniz Ülkeleri

Are Number Of Tourist Arrivals The Driving Force Of Economic Growth in Mediterranean Countries?: Augmented Mean Group Estimator

Öz

This paper investigates the relationship between tourist arrivals and economic growth in selected Mediterranean countries. The annual data consider the number of tourist arrivals, real effective exchange rate and economic growth for the period of 1995-2017. In the study, the coefficient estimates of each country are made by using the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator. Prior to applying these tests, cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity tests were implemented. The AMG estimator results show that the number of tourist arrivals has a positive impact on economic growth. Empirical results show that tourist arrivals have positive impact on economic growth for France, Malta, Spain, Cyprus, Morocco, and Tunisia. According to the study findings, it can be expressed that the tourism policies applied in these countries increase the number of tourist arrivals. Additionally, it is found no significant effect for Greece, Italy, and Israel.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism
• Economic Growth
• Cross-Sectional Dependence
• Augmented Mean Group Estimator
• Mediterrranean Countries

Kaynakça

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