A Comparative Forecasting Approach to Forecast Animal Production: A Case of Turkey

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 60 Sayı: 1, 24 - 31, 13.08.2020

Muhammed Ordu , Yusuf Zengin

https://doi.org/10.46897/lahaed.719095

Cited By: 6

Öz

A number of reasons such as the increase in the world population, changes in the climate due to global warming and pandemic diseases affecting many regions have brought the importance of vegetative and animal production to the agenda, which is necessary for the healthy and balanced nutrition of the societies. The livestock sector along with all its sub-branches positively contributes to the economic development of societies with employment provided in many sectors from production to consumption. Due to the global changes occurring for many years, researchers and policy makers have carried out studies on sustainable agriculture and livestock policies at the national and international level of food supply. In the literature, a limited number of forecasting studies on animal production have been carried out. The aim of our study is to develop a comparative forecasting approach and determine the best forecasting methods and models for each type of red meat (i.e. goat, seep, buffalo carcass, and cattle and calf carcass). Accordingly, we used ARIMA, exponential smoothing and STLF forecasting methods. Quarterly data between 2010 and 2018 published by Turkish Statistical Institute were used. The results of the study showed that comparing more than one forecasting method rather than using a single method in estimating the amount of red meat production will produce more reliable and accurate results.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Red Meat, Forecasting, Animal Production, Comparative Analysis, Turkey

A Comparative Forecasting Approach to Forecast Animal Production: A Case of Turkey

Öz

Dünya nüfusundaki artış, küresel ısınmaya bağlı iklimde meydana gelen değişmeler ve birçok bölgeyi etkileyen pandemik hastalıklar gibi birtakım nedenler toplumların sağlıklı ve dengeli beslenmesi için gerekli olan gıda temini noktasında bitkisel ve hayvansal üretimin önemini gündeme getirmiştir. Hayvancılık sektörü bütün alt dalları ile birlikte üretimden tüketime birçok sektörde sağladığı istihdam ile toplumların ekonomik olarak gelişmelerine pozitif katkılar sunmaktadır. Uzun yıllardır meydana gelen küresel çaptaki değişmelerden dolayı araştırmacılar ve politika yapıcılar ulusal ve uluslararası düzeyde gıda temini noktasında sürdürülebilir tarım ve hayvancılık politikaları ile ilgili çalışmalar yapmıştır. Literatürde ise hayvancılık ve hayvansal üretim ile ilgili sınırlı sayıda tahmin çalışmaları yürütülmüştür. Çalışmamızın amacı, karşılaştırmalı bir tahmin yaklaşımı geliştirmek ve Türkiye'deki her bir kırmızı et türü için (keçi, koyun, manda ve sığır) en iyi tahmin sonucunu veren tahmin metotlarını ve modellerini belirlemektir. Bu doğrultuda, ARIMA, üstel yumuşatma ve STLF yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu tarafından yayımlanan 2010-2018 yılları arasındaki çeyrek yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, kırmızı et üretim miktarının tahminlerinde tek bir tahmin yöntemini kullanılmak yerine birden fazla yöntemin karşılaştırılmasının daha güvenilir ve doğru sonuçlar vereceğini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kırmızı Et, Tahminleme, Hayvansal Üretim, Karşılaştırmalı Analiz, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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