Araştırma Makalesi
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On the Relationship between Anti-Elitist Attitudes and Electoral Behavior in the 2018 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 109, 185 - 218, 20.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.36484/liberal.1119338

Öz

Demand based explanations for the rapidly growing significance of populism in many countries show a positive relationship between the populist attitudes of citizens and support for populist parties. The findings in previous research on the relationship between antielitist attitudes, a widely accepted pillar of various populism definitions, and electoral behavior are, however, not as consonant with theoretical expectations in previous literature. In this particular study on Turkey, adopting a demand based explanation, a representative survey data and a quantitative approach are employed to analyze the electoral behavior in the June 2018 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections. It is argued that the word elite corresponds to the incumbent party and its leaders, rather than the very subject of the populist discourse; therefore, anti-elitist attitudes do not affect electoral support for populist parties and candidates in Turkey positively, where a populist party has been in power for more than twenty years. Multinomial logistical regression estimates, which suggest that pro-elitist voters are more likely to support populist parties and candidates, provide support
for our expectations. The implications of our findings from the perspectives of populism, comparative politics, and Turkish politics, and democratic representation are contended in the conclusion.

Kaynakça

  • Akkerman, A., Mudde, C. ve Zaslove, A. (2014). How Populist Are the People? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Voters. Comparative Political Studies, 47(9), 1324-1353.
  • Akkerman, A., Zaslove, A. ve Spruyt, B. (2017). 'We the People' or 'We the Peoples'? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review, 23(4), 377-403.
  • Aydın-Düzgit, S. ve Balta, E. (2017). Turkey after the July 15th Coup Attempt: When Elites Polarize over Polarization. İstanbul: Istanbul Policy Center.
  • Aytaç, S. E., Çarkoğlu, A. ve Elçi, E. (2020). Partisanship, Elite Messages, and Support for Populism in Power. European Political Science Review, 13(1), 23-39.
  • Aytaç, S. E. ve Elçi, E. (2019). Populism in Turkey. In Populism Around the World (pp. 89-108).
  • Aytaç, S. E. ve Öniş, Z. (2014). Varieties of Populism in a Changing Global Context: The Divergent paths of Erdoğan and Kirchnerismo. Comparative Politics, 47(1), 41-59.
  • Bakker, B. N., Rooduijn, M. ve Schumacher, G. (2016). The Psychological Roots of Populist Voting: Evidence from the United States, the Netherlands and Germany. European Journal of Political Research, 55(2), 302-320.
  • Bernhard, L. ve Hänggli, R. (2018). Who Holds Populist Attitudes? Evidence from Switzerland. Swiss Political Science Review, 24(4), 510-524.
  • Bos, L., Schemer, C., Corbu, N., Hameleers, M., Andreadis, I., Schulz, A., ... ve Fawzi, N. (2020). The Effects of Populism as a Social Identity Frame on Persuasion and Mobilisation: Evidence from a 15‐country Experiment. European Journal of Political Research, 59(1), 3-24.
  • Castanho Silva, B., Jungkunz, S., Helbling, M. ve Littvay, L. (2020). An Empirical Comparison of Seven Populist Attitudes Scales. Political Research Quarterly, 73(2), 409-424.
  • Comparative Study of Electoral Studies (2022). Module 5: 2016-2021. 10 Mayıs 2022 tarihinde https://cses.org/data-download/cses-module-5-2016-2021/ adresinden alınmıştır.
  • Çarkoğlu, A. ve Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2021). Fragile But Resilient?: Turkish Electoral Dynamics, 2002-2015. University of Michigan Press.
  • Çarkoğlu, A. ve Yıldırım, K. (2018). Change and Continuity in Turkey's June 2018 Elections. Insight Turkey, 20(4), 153-182.
  • Çelik, A. B. ve Balta, E. (2018). Explaining the Micro Dynamics of the Populist Cleavage in the 'New Turkey'. Mediterranean Politics, 25(2), 160-181.
  • Collier, R. B. (1999). Paths toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Elçi, E. (2019). Politics of Nostalgia: Psychological Origins of Populism. (Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi). Koç University.
  • Elçi, E. (2022). Politics of Nostalgia and Populism: Evidence from Turkey. British Journal of Political Science, 52(2), 697-714.
  • Fahey, R. A., Hino, A. ve Jungkunz, S. (2019). Populism "Made in Japan": A New Species? Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 5(3), 288-299.
  • Hawkins, K., Riding, S. ve Mudde, C. (2012) Measuring Populist Attitudes. In: Political Concepts (pp. 1-35): The Committee on Concepts and Methods.
  • Hawkins, K. A., Rovira Kaltwasser, C. ve Andreadis, I. (2020). The Activation of Populist Attitudes. Government and Opposition, 55(2), 283-307.
  • Hino, A. (2012). New Challenger Parties in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis. Abingdon: Routledge.
  • Hobolt, S., Anduiza, E., Çarkoğlu, A., Lutz, G. ve Sauger, N. (2016) Democracy Divided? People, Politicians and the Politics of Populism. In: CSES Planning Committee Module 5 Final Report.
  • Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2012). Kulturkampf in Turkey: The Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010. South European Society and Politics, 17(1), 1-22.
  • Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2021). Halk Yönetimi: Demokrasi ve Popülizm Çatışmasında Dünya. İstanbul: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Kemahlıoğlu, Ö. (2015). Winds of Change? The June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey. South European Society and Politics, 20(4), 445-464.
  • Kriesi, H., Grande, E., Lachat, R., Dolezal, M., Bornschier, S., ve Frey, T. (2008). West European Politics in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mardin, Ş. (1973). Center-Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics. Daedalus, 102(1), 169-190.
  • Moral, M. (2021). Politics as (Un)Usual? An Overview of the June 2018 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Turkey. In A. Çarkoğlu and E. Kalaycıoğlu (ed.), Elections and Public Opinion in Turkey: Through the Prism of the 2018 Elections. New York: Routledge, 22-50.
  • Mudde, C. (2004). The Populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 541-563.
  • Mudde, C. (2007). Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mudde, C. ve Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2012). Exclusionary vs. Inclusionary Populism: Comparing Contemporary Europe and Latin America. Government and Opposition, 48(2), 147-174.
  • Mudde, C. ve Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2018). Studying Populism in Comparative Perspective: Reflections on the Contemporary and Future Research Agenda. Comparative Political Studies, 51(13), 1667-1693.
  • Norris, P. (2020). Global Party Survey. 10 Mayıs 2022 tarihinde https://www.globalpartysurvery.org adresinden alınmıştır.
  • Özbudun, E. (2014). AKP at the Crossroads: Erdoğan's Majoritarian Drift. South European Society and Politics, 19(2), 155-167.
  • Quinlan, S. ve Tinney, D. (2019). A Populist Wave or Metamorphosis of a Chameleon? Populist Attitudes and the Vote in 2016 in the United States and Ireland. The Economic and Social Review, 50(2), 281-324.
  • Stanley, B. (2011). Populism, Nationalism, or National Populism? An Analysis of Slovak Voting Behaviour at the 2010 Parliamentary Election. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 44(4), 257-270.
  • Van Hauwaert, S. M., Schimpf, C. H. ve Azevedo, F. (2020). The Measurement of Populist Attitudes: Testing Cross-National Scales Using Item Response Theory. Politics, 40(1), 3-21.
  • Van Hauwaert, S. M. ve Van Kessel, S. (2018). Beyond Protest and Discontent: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effect of Populist Attitudes and Issue Positions on Populist Party Support. European Journal of Political Research, 57(1), 68-92.
  • Wuttke, A., Schimpf, C. ve Schoen, H. (2020). When the Whole is Greater than the Sum of its Parts: On the Conceptualization and Measurement of Populist Attitudes and Other Multidimensional Sonstructs. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 356-374.

2018 Milletvekili Genel ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimlerinde Elit Karşıtı Tutumlar ve Seçmen Davranışı İlişkisi

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 109, 185 - 218, 20.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.36484/liberal.1119338

Öz

Popülizmin son yıllardaki yükselişine talep temelli açıklamalar getiren çalışmalarda seçmenlerin popülist tutumları ile popülist parti ve adaylara oy destekleri arasında pozitif bir örüntü olduğu öne sürülmektedir. Popülizmin çeşitli tanımlarında yer alan elit karşıtlığı ile seçmen davranışı arasındaki ilişkiye odaklanan çalışmalardaysa kuramsal beklentilerle aynı ölçüde uyumlu sonuçlara ulaşılmamaktadır. Bu ilişkiyi Türkiye özelinde değerlendiren makalede temsili bir anket çalışmasının verileri ve nicel yöntemler kullanılarak, 2018 Genel ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerindeki oy verme ve seçime katılım davranışları incelenmektedir. Çalışmada popülist bir partinin uzun süredir iktidarda olduğu Türkiye’de elit kavramının iktidardaki partinin seçkinlerini tanımlar hale geldiğini ve elit karşıtlığının bu nedenle popülist parti ve adaylara oy verme olasılığı üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi olmadığı öne sürülmektedir. Çokterimli lojistik regresyonlar bu beklentileri destekleyerek, elit yanlısı seçmenlerin popülist partilere ve adayına oy verme eğiliminde olduğunu göstermektedir. Ampirik bulguların popülizm, karşılaştırmalı siyaset, Türkiye siyaseti ve demokratik temsiliyet açılarından birçok önemli sonucu tartışılmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Akkerman, A., Mudde, C. ve Zaslove, A. (2014). How Populist Are the People? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Voters. Comparative Political Studies, 47(9), 1324-1353.
  • Akkerman, A., Zaslove, A. ve Spruyt, B. (2017). 'We the People' or 'We the Peoples'? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review, 23(4), 377-403.
  • Aydın-Düzgit, S. ve Balta, E. (2017). Turkey after the July 15th Coup Attempt: When Elites Polarize over Polarization. İstanbul: Istanbul Policy Center.
  • Aytaç, S. E., Çarkoğlu, A. ve Elçi, E. (2020). Partisanship, Elite Messages, and Support for Populism in Power. European Political Science Review, 13(1), 23-39.
  • Aytaç, S. E. ve Elçi, E. (2019). Populism in Turkey. In Populism Around the World (pp. 89-108).
  • Aytaç, S. E. ve Öniş, Z. (2014). Varieties of Populism in a Changing Global Context: The Divergent paths of Erdoğan and Kirchnerismo. Comparative Politics, 47(1), 41-59.
  • Bakker, B. N., Rooduijn, M. ve Schumacher, G. (2016). The Psychological Roots of Populist Voting: Evidence from the United States, the Netherlands and Germany. European Journal of Political Research, 55(2), 302-320.
  • Bernhard, L. ve Hänggli, R. (2018). Who Holds Populist Attitudes? Evidence from Switzerland. Swiss Political Science Review, 24(4), 510-524.
  • Bos, L., Schemer, C., Corbu, N., Hameleers, M., Andreadis, I., Schulz, A., ... ve Fawzi, N. (2020). The Effects of Populism as a Social Identity Frame on Persuasion and Mobilisation: Evidence from a 15‐country Experiment. European Journal of Political Research, 59(1), 3-24.
  • Castanho Silva, B., Jungkunz, S., Helbling, M. ve Littvay, L. (2020). An Empirical Comparison of Seven Populist Attitudes Scales. Political Research Quarterly, 73(2), 409-424.
  • Comparative Study of Electoral Studies (2022). Module 5: 2016-2021. 10 Mayıs 2022 tarihinde https://cses.org/data-download/cses-module-5-2016-2021/ adresinden alınmıştır.
  • Çarkoğlu, A. ve Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2021). Fragile But Resilient?: Turkish Electoral Dynamics, 2002-2015. University of Michigan Press.
  • Çarkoğlu, A. ve Yıldırım, K. (2018). Change and Continuity in Turkey's June 2018 Elections. Insight Turkey, 20(4), 153-182.
  • Çelik, A. B. ve Balta, E. (2018). Explaining the Micro Dynamics of the Populist Cleavage in the 'New Turkey'. Mediterranean Politics, 25(2), 160-181.
  • Collier, R. B. (1999). Paths toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Elçi, E. (2019). Politics of Nostalgia: Psychological Origins of Populism. (Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi). Koç University.
  • Elçi, E. (2022). Politics of Nostalgia and Populism: Evidence from Turkey. British Journal of Political Science, 52(2), 697-714.
  • Fahey, R. A., Hino, A. ve Jungkunz, S. (2019). Populism "Made in Japan": A New Species? Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 5(3), 288-299.
  • Hawkins, K., Riding, S. ve Mudde, C. (2012) Measuring Populist Attitudes. In: Political Concepts (pp. 1-35): The Committee on Concepts and Methods.
  • Hawkins, K. A., Rovira Kaltwasser, C. ve Andreadis, I. (2020). The Activation of Populist Attitudes. Government and Opposition, 55(2), 283-307.
  • Hino, A. (2012). New Challenger Parties in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis. Abingdon: Routledge.
  • Hobolt, S., Anduiza, E., Çarkoğlu, A., Lutz, G. ve Sauger, N. (2016) Democracy Divided? People, Politicians and the Politics of Populism. In: CSES Planning Committee Module 5 Final Report.
  • Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2012). Kulturkampf in Turkey: The Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010. South European Society and Politics, 17(1), 1-22.
  • Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2021). Halk Yönetimi: Demokrasi ve Popülizm Çatışmasında Dünya. İstanbul: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Kemahlıoğlu, Ö. (2015). Winds of Change? The June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey. South European Society and Politics, 20(4), 445-464.
  • Kriesi, H., Grande, E., Lachat, R., Dolezal, M., Bornschier, S., ve Frey, T. (2008). West European Politics in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mardin, Ş. (1973). Center-Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics. Daedalus, 102(1), 169-190.
  • Moral, M. (2021). Politics as (Un)Usual? An Overview of the June 2018 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Turkey. In A. Çarkoğlu and E. Kalaycıoğlu (ed.), Elections and Public Opinion in Turkey: Through the Prism of the 2018 Elections. New York: Routledge, 22-50.
  • Mudde, C. (2004). The Populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 541-563.
  • Mudde, C. (2007). Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mudde, C. ve Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2012). Exclusionary vs. Inclusionary Populism: Comparing Contemporary Europe and Latin America. Government and Opposition, 48(2), 147-174.
  • Mudde, C. ve Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2018). Studying Populism in Comparative Perspective: Reflections on the Contemporary and Future Research Agenda. Comparative Political Studies, 51(13), 1667-1693.
  • Norris, P. (2020). Global Party Survey. 10 Mayıs 2022 tarihinde https://www.globalpartysurvery.org adresinden alınmıştır.
  • Özbudun, E. (2014). AKP at the Crossroads: Erdoğan's Majoritarian Drift. South European Society and Politics, 19(2), 155-167.
  • Quinlan, S. ve Tinney, D. (2019). A Populist Wave or Metamorphosis of a Chameleon? Populist Attitudes and the Vote in 2016 in the United States and Ireland. The Economic and Social Review, 50(2), 281-324.
  • Stanley, B. (2011). Populism, Nationalism, or National Populism? An Analysis of Slovak Voting Behaviour at the 2010 Parliamentary Election. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 44(4), 257-270.
  • Van Hauwaert, S. M., Schimpf, C. H. ve Azevedo, F. (2020). The Measurement of Populist Attitudes: Testing Cross-National Scales Using Item Response Theory. Politics, 40(1), 3-21.
  • Van Hauwaert, S. M. ve Van Kessel, S. (2018). Beyond Protest and Discontent: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effect of Populist Attitudes and Issue Positions on Populist Party Support. European Journal of Political Research, 57(1), 68-92.
  • Wuttke, A., Schimpf, C. ve Schoen, H. (2020). When the Whole is Greater than the Sum of its Parts: On the Conceptualization and Measurement of Populist Attitudes and Other Multidimensional Sonstructs. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 356-374.
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Siyaset Bilimi
Bölüm Araştırma
Yazarlar

Mert Moral 0000-0001-6674-3198

Yasemin Tosun 0000-0002-7601-2134

Şeyma Topçu 0000-0002-4126-4315

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 18 Temmuz 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Mart 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 21 Mayıs 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Sayı: 109

Kaynak Göster

APA Moral, M., Tosun, Y., & Topçu, Ş. (2023). 2018 Milletvekili Genel ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimlerinde Elit Karşıtı Tutumlar ve Seçmen Davranışı İlişkisi. Liberal Düşünce Dergisi(109), 185-218. https://doi.org/10.36484/liberal.1119338