Dalgacık-Gen İfade Programlama ile Meteorolojik Kuraklık Tahmini: Çanakkale Örneği

Yıl 2022, , 361 - 369, 31.12.2022

Özlem Terzi , Dilek Taylan

https://doi.org/10.29048/makufebed.1177323

Cited By: 1

Öz

Son yıllardaki küresel iklim değişikliğinden dolayı, yağış miktarı ve süresindeki farklılıklar kuraklık üzerinde büyük etkiye sahip olmaktadır. Bu nedenle, sürdürülebilir su kaynakları çalışmalarında kuraklık dikkate alınması gereken parametrelerden biridir. Bu çalışmada, ilk olarak, 1975-2010 yılları arasında bulunan tarihi yağış kayıtları kullanılarak Çanakkale, Bozcaada ve Gökçeada istasyonlarının standart yağış indisi (SYİ) ile 3-, 6-, 9- ve 12- aylık kuraklık indisleri belirlenmiştir. Daha sonra, Çanakkale ilinin kuraklık tahmini için Bozcaada ve Gökçeada istasyonlarının kuraklık değerlerinin girdi parametreleri olarak seçildiği gen ifade programlama (GEP) modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Ayrıca, aynı girdilerin dalgacık dönüşümü (D) ile üretilen alt serileri kullanılarak D-GEP modelleri üretilmiştir. Geliştirilen modeller incelendiğinde, 6-, 9- ve 12- aylık dönemlere ait belirleyicilik katsayıları (R2), GEP ve D-GEP modelleri için genel olarak 0,80'den yüksek bulunurken, 3- aylık dönem için R2 değerleri yaklaşık olarak sırasıyla 0,657 ve 0,704 elde edilmiştir. En yüksek R2 değeri 6- aylık dönemde D-GEP modeli için 0,868 olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, GEP ve D-GEP yaklaşımlarının kuraklık tahmininde başarılı oldukları görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çanakkale, kuraklık, GEP, SYİ, dalgacık dönüşümü

Meteorological Drought Estimation by Wavelet-Gene Expression Programming: Case Study of Çanakkale, Türkiye

Öz

The differences in duration and amount of precipitation significantly affect the drought due to global climate change in the last decades. Therefore, drought is one of the parameters to be considered for sustainable water resources studies. In this study, firstly, by using historical precipitation records between the years 1975-2010, the drought indices of 3-, 6-, 9- and 12- months of Çanakkale, Bozcaada, and Gökçeada stations were determined with the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Then, gene expression programming (GEP) models were developed in which the drought values of Bozcaada and Gökçeada stations were selected as input parameters for the drought prediction of Çanakkale province. In addition, W-GEP models were developed using a sub-series of the same inputs produced with wavelet transform (W). Examining the developed models, the determination coefficients (R2) for the 6-, 9- and 12-months periods were generally higher than 0.80 for GEP and W-GEP models. In contrast, the R2 value for the 3- month period was approximately 0.657 and 0.704, respectively. The highest R2 value was determined as 0.868 for the W-GEP model during the 6- month period. As a result, the GEP and W-GEP approaches were found to be successful in the estimation of drought.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çanakkale, drought, GEP, SPI, wavelet transform

Kaynakça

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