THE IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS: THE EXAMPLE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 316 - 332, 29.08.2019

Murat Çetin Selin Saygın

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.534538

Cited By: 4

Öz

In this study, the effect of trade openness on
energy consumption was investigated over the period of 1970-2015 in the example
of Turkish economy. The DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng-Perron conventional unit root tests
and Vogelsang-Perron unit root test with structural break were used to
determine the stationary degrees of the variables. The results obtained from
the unit root tests allowed the use of the ARDL bounds test to determine the
long-term relationship between the series. Bounds test results supported the
existence of a long-term relationship between the variables. According to the
long run results, it was detected that trade opennes positively affected energy
consumption. The causality relations between the variables were investigated by
using Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The causality results found the
existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between trade openness and
energy consumption. The results can provide important policy recommendations
for Turkish economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade Openness, Energy Consumption, ARDL Bounds Test, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test, Turkey

YAPISAL KIRILMA ALTINDA TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada ticari dışa açıklığın enerji
tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi, Türkiye ekonomisi bağlamında 1970-2015 döneminde
araştırılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlık derecelerinin tespiti için DF-GLS, KPSS
ve Ng-Perron geleneksel birim kök testleri ile Vogelsang-Perron yapısal
kırılmalı birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen birim kök test sonuçları,
seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespiti için ARDL sınır testinin
kullanımına imkân sunmuştur. Sınır testi sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun
dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını desteklemiştir. Uzun dönem sonuçlarına göre,
ticari dışa açıklığın enerji tüketimini pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto
nedensellik analizi kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri
araştırılmıştır. Nedensellik sonuçları, ticari dışa açıklık ile enerji tüketimi
arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını belirlemiştir.
Sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisi için önemli politika önerileri sunabilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Enerji Tüketimi, ARDL Sınır Testi, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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