YAŞLANAN NÜFUS MİLLİ GELİRİ NASIL ETKİLER? G-20 ÜLKELERİNDEN KANITLAR

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 3, 1806 - 1825, 29.11.2022

Ayşe Durgun Zeynep Ezanoğlu

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1033643

Öz

Doğum oranlarındaki azalış, beklenen yaşam süresindeki artış küresel yaş yapısında önemli bir değişime neden olmaktadır. Toplam nüfus içerisinde yaş gruplarının oranının değişmesi, özellikle yaşlı nüfus oranının artması ile ekonomik hayatta bazı değişimler yaşanmıştır. Bu değişimler genç, çalışma çağı ve yaşlı nüfus grupları arasında işgücü arzı, tasarruf, tüketim, kamusal harcamalar ve beşerî sermaye gibi konuların farklılaşmasına yol açmıştır. Nüfustaki artışın ekonomik büyümeyi tüketim ve tasarruf modelleri, kamusal sosyal harcama ve insan sermayesi olarak üç mekanizma yoluyla etkileyeceği belirtilmektedir. Bu çalışma ile nüfus yaşlanmasının milli geliri nasıl etkileyeceği açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu bağlamda G20 ülkeleri verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi yöntemi ile demografik değişkenler ve milli gelir arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, toplam nüfus içinde çalışma çağındaki nüfusun oranı arttıkça milli gelirin arttığı görülmektedir. Ayrıca toplam nüfus içinde yaşlı nüfusun artmasının da milli geliri arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Milli Gelir, Demografik Dönüşüm, Nüfus Yaşlanması, Tüketim, Panel Veri

HOW AGING POPULATION AFFECTS NATIONAL INCOME? EVIDENCE FROM G-20 COUNTRIES

Öz

The decrease in birth rates and the increase in life expectancy cause a significant change in the global age structure. There have been some changes in economic life with the change in the ratio of age groups in the total population, especially the increase in the proportion of the elderly population. These changes have led to the differentiation of subjects such as labor supply, savings, consumption, public expenditures and human capital among young, working age and elderly population groups. It is stated that the increase in population will affect economic growth through three mechanisms as consumption and savings models, public social expenditure and human capital. In this study, it has been tried to explain how population aging will affect national income. In this context, the relationship between demographic variables and national income was examined by panel data analysis method using the data of G20 countries. The results of the analysis show that as the ratio of the working age population in the total population increases, the national income increases. In addition, it has been concluded that the increase in the elderly population in the total population also increases the national income. These results are statistically significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

National income, Demographic Transformation, Population Aging, Consumption, Panel Data

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