Türkiye Sanayi Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketiminin 2017-2023 dönemi için Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Tahmini

Öz

Ülkelerin gelişmesinde sanayinin büyük bir rolü olup geçmişten günümüze kadar sanayi faaliyetleri hız kesmeden ilerlemiştir. Bu gelişime ayak uyduran ülkeler ucuz hammaddeleri işleyip yüksek ücretlere satarak hazinelerini genişletmişlerdir. Endüstri 4.0 devriminin şafağında bu gelişimden geri kalınmaması gerekmekte olup gerek sanayi gerekse teknoloji birlikte geliştirilmelidir. Sanayileşmedeki en büyük ihtiyaçlardan biri elektrik enerjisi olup Türkiye’de elektrik enerjisi tüketiminin sanayi için oranları yıllara göre %40 ile %60 arasında değişmektedir. Bu oranlar düşünüldüğünde elektrik tüketiminin büyük bir payı sanayiye ait olup ileriye yönelik planlamaların yapılmasına kesinlikle ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Türkiye’nin Endüstri 4.0 ile birlikte gelecek planlarında elektrik enerjisi sıkıntısına düşmemesi için ileriye yönelik tahminleme ve buna uygun yeni tesislerin kurulumlarının planlanması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1970-2016 yıllarına ait sanayi için elektrik tüketimleri yapay sinir ağları ile modellenmiş olup elde edilen model daha sonra 2017-2023 yıllarındaki tüketimi tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Yapay sinir ağı birisi-dışarıda çapraz doğrulama yöntemi ile test edilmiş olup elde edilen sonuçlara göre; ortalama karesel hataların karekökü değeri 8.99, ortalama mutlak yüzde hata %31.6 ve belirleme katsayısı ise 0.94 olarak elde edilmiş olup bu sonuçlar modelin iyi kurulduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca 2023 yılına kadar olan tahmin değerleri de Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş. Genel Müdürlüğü’nün kendi tahminleri ile paralellik göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Elektrik Tüketimi,Sanayi,Yapay Sinir Ağları,Tahminleme

Estimation of Turkey Industrial Electricity Consumption with Artificial Neural Networks for the 2017-2023 Period

Öz

In the development of the countries, the industry played a big role and the industrial activities from the past to the present day progressed without slowing down. These developments have expanded their treasury by selling cheap raw materials to high wages after they have grown up. At the dawn of the Industry 4.0 revolution, this development should not be left behind, and both industry and technology should be developed together. For industrialization, one of the biggest needs is electricity energy and the ratio of consumption of electricity energy in proportion to industry in Turkey ranges from 40% to 60% according to years. Considering these rates, a large share of electricity consumption belongs to the industry and there is absolutely a need for future planning. Turkey's future plans with Industry 4.0, forecasting electricity for onward fall into distress, and it is necessary to install the proper planning of new facilities. In this study, the electricity consumption of the 1970-2016 years for the industry in Turkey are modeled with artificial neural network, then obtained successful model is used to estimate consumption in the years 2017-2023. The artificial neural network has been tested by leave-one-out cross validation method and according to the results; the root mean square error is 8.99, the mean absolute percentage error is 31.6%, and the coefficient of determination is 0.94, which indicates that the model is well established. In addition, forecast values up to 2023 are in line with General Directorate of Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş.'s own estimates. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Electricity Consumption,Industry,Artificial Neural Networks,Estimation

Kaynakça

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