Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cinsiyete Dayalı İşsizlik: Seçilmiş Petrol İhracatçısı ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkelerinin Karşılaştırması (1996 - 2021)

Öz

Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde ekonomik büyüme ile cinsiyete dayalı işsizlik arasındaki ilişki 1996-2021 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın kapsamını Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri ve petrol ihraç eden ülkeler oluşturmaktadır. Cinsiyete dayalı işsizlik verileri erkek, kadın ve toplam işsizlikteki yıllık değişimlerden oluşmaktadır. Bağımlı değişken olarak reel GSYİH büyüme oranı modele dâhil edimiştir. Panel veri yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmada Okun Yasası’nın GSYH açığı modeli, petrol ihraç eden Orta Doğu ülkeleri (Model 1) ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri (Model 2) için test edilmiştir. Birinci Modelin PMG ve FMOLS sonuçlarına göre, petrol ihraç eden Orta Doğu ülkelerinde kadın ve erkek işsizlik oranları ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz olarak etkilemektedir. Yani işsizlik arttıkça ekonomik büyüme yavaşlamakta, hatta negatife dönmektedir. İkinci Model olan Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinde cinsiyete göre işsizliğin büyümeye etkisi Birinci Modelden farklıdır. PMG ve FMOLS sonuçlarına göre kadın işsizlik oranı büyümeyi olumlu etkilemekte, erkek işsizlik oranlarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin yönü beklendiği gibi her iki ülke grubu için de negatiftir. Model 2 ülkelerinde kadın işsizliği ile büyüme arasında aynı yönlü bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu sonuç, işsizlik yardımlarının yaygınlığını ve bu ülkelerdeki iş yasalarının işsizliğin etkisini azaltmada etkili olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Cinsiyete Dayalı İşsizlik
• Okun Yasası

Economic Growth and Gender-Specific Unemployment: Comparison of Selected Oil Exporters and Eastern European Countries (1996 - 2021)

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and gender-based unemployment in developing economies was analyzed for the period 1996-2021. Eastern European countries and oil exporting countries constitute the scope of the study. Gender-specific unemployment data consists of annual changes in male, female, and total unemployment. The real GDP growth rate has been included in the model as the dependent variable. In the study using the panel data method, the GDP gap model of Okun's Law was tested for oil-exporting Middle Eastern countries (Model 1) and Eastern European countries (Model 2). According to the PMG and FMOLS results of the First Model, the unemployment rates of women and men in oil-exporting Middle Eastern countries negatively affect economic growth. In other words, as unemployment increases, economic growth slows down and even turns negative. In the second model, the effect of unemployment by gender on growth in Eastern European countries is different from the first model. According to the PMG and FMOLS results, the female unemployment rate positively affects growth, while the direction of the impact of male unemployment rates on growth is negative for both country groups, as expected. There is a same-directional relationship between female unemployment and growth in Model 2 countries. This result shows the prevalence of unemployment benefits and suggests that labor laws in these countries can be effective in reducing the impact of unemployment.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Gender Specific Unemployment
• Okun’s Law

Kaynakça

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