NATO’s Stance on the S-400 Dispute: From Being Unconcerned to Concerns and Solution-Seeking Attempts

Abstract

In 2017, NATO ally Türkiye unsurprisingly signed what Turkish President Erdoğan described as “the most important agreement in our history” with Moscow, to procure sophisticated S-400 surface-to-air defence systems. Since the very beginning, the S-400 deal with Russia has remained a point of dispute with its strategic partner, the US. The Alliance, for its part, faced significant military and security implications arising from the S-400 dispute. This article hence aims to explore, in-depth, the stance of NATO on the relevant dispute from its outset to the present day, which is the first time that such an exercise has arguably been attempted. In doing so, it also seeks to assess whether NATO’s stance on the dispute has shifted and, if so, identify the factors behind this change. This aspect is particularly significant, as several earlier accounts portrayed the Western security alliance as being concerned about Türkiye’s S-400 choice. Tracing the historical evolution of the dispute and adopting qualitative document analysis of NATO’s official communiqués, speeches, press conferences, media reports, and secondary sources, this research challenges that narrative by offering a distinct perspective. It further finds that NATO changed its earlier stance on Türkiye’s S-400 acquisition, a shift largely driven by U.S. actions.

Keywords

• S-400 Dispute
• NATO
• Türkiye
• The U.S.
• Russia

NATO’nun S-400 Anlaşmazlığına İlişkin Tutumu: Kaygısızlıktan Endişelere ve Çözüm Arama Girişimlerine

Öz

NATO müttefiki Türkiye 2017’de—hiç de sürpriz olmayacak şekilde—Rusya ile, Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın ifadesiyle, ‘tarihimizin en önemli anlaşması’ olarak nitelendirdiği, sofistike S-400 hava savunma sistemlerinin tedarikine yönelik anlaşmayı imzaladı. Rusya ile yapılan S-400 anlaşması en başından itibaren Türkiye’nin stratejik ortağı olan ABD ile bir anlaşmazlık konusu haline geldi. İttifak, S-400 anlaşmazlığının askeri ve güvenlikle ilgili boyutlarını göz ardı etmeyi göze alamaz. Bu makale bu yüzden, söz konusu anlaşmazlıkta NATO’nun tutumunu en başından günümüze kadar derinlemesine incelemeyi amaç edinmektedir. Bu yönüyle çalışma, bu konuda yapılan ilk girişim olma niteliğini taşımaktadır. Makale ayrıca, NATO’nun pozisyonunda bir değişiklik olup olmadığını ve varsa bunun nedenlerini tahlil etmektedir. Bu husus, özellikle anlaşmazlığın ilk dönemlerini ele alan bazı çalışmaların Batı güvenlik ittifakını Türkiye’nin S-400 tercihi karşısında kaygılı bir aktör olarak değerlendirmeleri bakımından ayrı bir önem taşımaktadır. Anlaşmazlığın tarihsel gelişimini takip eden ve resmi bildiriler, basın toplantıları, konuşmalar, medya haberleri ile ikincil kaynaklar üzerinden nitel doküman analizini benimseyen bu çalışma, söz konusu yaklaşıma farklı bir bakış açısı getirerek alternatif bir değerlendirme sunmaktadır. Ayrıca çalışma, NATO’nun Türkiye’nin S-400 edinimine yönelik önceki tutumundan uzaklaştığını ve bu değişimin büyük ölçüde ABD’nin eylemleri tarafından belirlendiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• S-400 Anlaşmazlığı
• NATO
• Türkiye
• ABD
• Rusya

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