Analyzing the impact of container shipping service reliability on global supply chain pressure: An asymmetric approach

Öz

Delays in international trade negatively affect the global world economically, commercially, and politically. We aimed to empirically determine the asymmetrical effect of the delays experienced in the arrival of container shipping vessels to their destinations on the pressure on the global supply chain by using Global Schedule Reliability (GSR) and Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The dataset covers the period between January 2017 and April 2023 and consists of 76 observations. The results show that the effect of delays on the supply chain is asymmetrical, while the increase in delays increases the pressure, the decrease in delays has no effect. This shows that the effects of delays on the supply chain are sticky and take a long time to clear from the system. In this direction, policies are recommended to minimize the effect of delays on international trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Schedule delays
• congestion
• international trade
• asymmetric causality

Konteyner Taşımacılığı Hizmet Güvenilirliğinin Küresel Tedarik Zincirindeki Baskıya Olan Etkisinin Analiz Edilmesi: Asimetrik Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

Uluslararası ticaretteki gecikmeler küresel dünyayı ekonomik, ticari ve politik olarak olumsuz etkilemektedir. Çalışmamızda Küresel Çizelge Güvenilirliği (KÇG) ve Küresel Tedarik Zinciri Baskı Endeksi (GSCPI) kullanarak konteyner gemilerinin varış noktalarına varmalarında yaşanan gecikmelerin küresel tedarik zinciri üzerindeki baskıya olan asimetrik etkisini ampirik olarak belirlemeyi amaçladık. Veri seti Ocak 2017 ile Nisan 2023 arasındaki dönemi kapsamaktadır ve 76 gözlemden oluşmaktadır. Sonuçlar, gecikmelerin tedarik zinciri üzerindeki etkisinin asimetrik olduğunu, gecikmelerdeki artışın baskıyı artırdığını, ancak gecikmelerdeki azalmanın ise etkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, gecikmelerin tedarik zinciri üzerindeki etkilerinin yapışkan olduğunu ve sistemden temizlenmelerinin uzun zaman aldığını göstermektedir. Bu doğrultuda, gecikmelerin uluslararası ticaret üzerindeki etkisini en aza indirecek politikalar önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• çizelge gecikmeleri
• sıkışıklıklar
• uluslararası ticaret
• asimetrik nedensellik

Kaynakça

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