The Debate Over the End of the US-Led Liberal International Order: The Crisis of Liberalism and Its Future

Öz

This paper seeks to analyze the question of whether or not the US-led liberal international order entered into an existential crisis in the wake of the election of Donald Trump as the US President in 2016 as well as the harmful acts of his predecessors to the liberal order. There has been an ongoing and fierce debate over the end of US-led liberal international order and its future within the Western academia and media in recent times. The main argument of the study is that the post-1945 liberal international order is now under serious threat, not only by the challenging rise of authoritarian powers such as China, but also due to the wave of illiberal popular movements within the Western World. Thus, by analyzing a systemic (global) phenomenon such as the crisis of the liberal international order, it presents a critical reading of the main works of liberals such as John Ikenberry whose analysis remains state based. By doing so, the contention is that liberalism has failed to predict this illiberal popular movements- oriented outcome, and falsely believes that the existing order is only the victim of its own success and will eventually survive the current disarray, since it is essentially a crisis of US hegemony rather than that of liberalism itself. The study concludes that this liberal order will gradually disappear and evolve eventually into a polity with less liberal and less American characteristics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Liberalism
• Liberal Internationalism
• Liberal International Order,
• Trump
• US Hegemony

ABD Liderliğindeki Liberal Uluslararası Düzenin Sonu Tartışması: Liberalizmin Krizi ve Geleceği

Öz

Bu çalışma, ABD öncülüğünde İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrası kurulan liberal uluslararası düzenin varoluşsal bir kriz içinde olup olmadığını, Donald Trump’ın Amerikan başkanlık seçimlerini kazanmasının ışığında çözümlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Savaş sonrası ABD liderliğinde kurulan ve Amerikan hegemonyasının (pax-Americana) oluşumundan ayrı düşünülmesi zor olan bu düzenin son yıllarda ağır bir krize girdiği ve yerini post-liberal bir düzene bırakıp bırakmayacağı ile ABD’nin hegemonyasındaki gerilemenin burada oynayacağı rol, son yıllarda özellikle Batılı ülkelerin akademik çevrelerinde ve medyasında yoğun bir şekilde tartışılmaktadır. Çalışmanın başlıca savı, liberal uluslararası düzenin, bugün sadece Çin ve Rusya gibi otoriter güçlerin yükselişinden değil, aynı zamanda Batı dünyasında liberalizme düşman halk hareketlerinden de kaynaklanan ciddi bir tehdit altında olduğudur. Liberal uluslararası düzenin krizi gibi sistemik (küresel) bir olguyu çözümlemekle çalışma, John Ikenberry gibi Çin ve Rusya gibi otoriter devletler merkezli çözümleme yapan liberallerin başlıca çalışmalarının eleştirel bir okumasını sunma hedefindedir. Bununla da çalışma, öncelikle liberalizmin Batı içi liberalizm karşıtı popülist tepki kaynaklı bu krizi öngörmede başarısız olduğunu, ardından da liberallerin mevcut düzendeki krizin liberalizmin kendisinin değil ABD hegemonyasının krizi olduğundan hareketle eninde sonunda liberal düzenin bu çalkantıdan sağ çıkacağına dair yanlış bir inanca sahip olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Çalışma, mevcut liberal düzenin yerini daha az liberal ve daha az Amerikan karakterli bir düzene bırakacağı tespitiyle sonuçlandırılacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• liberalizm
• liberal uluslararasıcılık
• liberal uluslararası düzen
• Trump

Kaynakça

1. Alcaro, R. (2018). “The Liberal Order and Its Contestations: A Conceptual Framework”, The International Spectator, 53(1), s. 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2018.1397878.
2. Bloomberght, (2018, Eylül 25). “Trump: Küreselleşme doktrinini reddediyoruz”,https://www.bloomberght.com/haberler/haber/2158687-trump-kuresellesme-doktrinini-reddediyoruz [Erişim Tarihi: 23.01.2020].
3. Chaudoin, S., Milner, H. V., Tingley, D. (2018). “Down But Not Out: A Liberal International American Foreign Policy”, In R. Jervis, F. Gavin, J. Rovner, D. N. Labrosse (Eds.), Chaos in The Liberal Order: The Trump Presidency and International Politics in The Twenty-First Century, New York: Columbia University Press, p. 61-97.
4. Cohen, R. (2016, April 14). “The Death of Liberalism”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/14/opinion/the-death-of-liberalism.html, [Erişim Tarihi: 24.04.2019].
5. Colgan, J. D. & Keohane, R. O. (2017, May/June). “The Liberal Order is Rigged”, Foreign Affairs, 96(3), p. 36-44.
6. Cox, M. (2019). “Nationalism, Nations and The Crisis of World Order”, International Relations, 33(2), p. 247-266, https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117819842306.
7. Duncombe, C. & Dunne, T. (2018). “After Liberal World Order”, International Affairs, 94(1), p. 25-42, doi: 10.1093/ia/iix234.
8. Glaser, C. L. (2019). “A Flawed Framework: Why the Liberal International Order Concept is Misguided”, International Security, 43(4), p. 51-87, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00343.

9. Haass, R. (2017, Jan/Feb). “World Order 2.0.”, Foreign Affairs, 96(1), p. 2-9.
10. Haass, R. (2017, December 28), “America and The Great Abdication”, The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/america-abidcation-trump-foreign-policy/549296/ [Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2019].
11. Hatip, Y. (2020, Ocak 08), “AB’nin Kısır Dış Politikası Küresel Etkisini Zayıflatıyor”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/abnin-kisir-dis-politikasi-kuresel-etkisini-zayiflatiyor-/1695934 [Erişim Tarihi: 12.01.2020].
12. Hirsch, M. (2019, December 27). “Why The Liberal International Order Will Endure into The Next Decade”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/27/why-liberal-international-order-will-endure-next-decade-2020-democracy/ [Erişim Tarihi: 12.01.2020].
13. Ikenberry, G. J. (2009, March). “Liberal Internationalism 3.0: America and The Dilemmas of Liberal World Order”, Perspectives on Politics, 7(1), p. 71-85, doi:10.1017/S1537592709090112.
14. Ikenberry, G. J. (2010). “The Liberal International Order and Its Discontents”, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 38(3), p. 509-521, https://doi.org/10.1177/0305829810366477.
15. Ikenberry, G. J. (2011). Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
16. Ikenberry, G. J. (2017). “The Plot against American Foreign Policy: Can The Liberal Order Survive?”, Foreign Affairs, 96(3), p. 1-7.
17. Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). “The End of Liberal International Order?”, International Affairs, 94(1), p. 7-23, doi: 10.1093/ia/iix241.
18. Jahn, B. (2018). “Liberal Internationalism: Historical Trajectory and Current Prospects”, International Affairs, 94(1), p. 43-61, doi: 10.1093/ia/iix231.
19. Kagan, R. (2017, January 24). “The Twilight of The Liberal World Order”, Brookings Institution Report, https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-twilight-of-the-liberal-world-order/ [Erişim Tarihi: 29.09.2019].
20. Kirchick, J. (2018, July 26). “Trump Wants to Destroy The World Order. So What?”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/26/trump-wants-to-destroy-the-world-order-so-what/ [Erişim Tarihi: 13.06.2019].
21. Krastev, I. (2016, November 20). “Donald Trump and the Bieber Doctrine”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/opinion/donald-trump-and-the-bieber-doctrine.html [Erişim Tarihi: 12.02.2019].
22. Küçükcan, T. (2017). “The Belt and Road Initiative and Middle Eastern Politics: Challenges Ahead”, Insight Turkey, 19(3), p. 83-91, DOI: 10.25253/99.2017193.06.
23. Kühnhardt, L. (2017). The Global Society and Its Enemies: Liberal Order Beyond The Third World War, Cham: Springer.
24. Mallaby, S. (2016, December). “Globalization Resets”, Finance & Development, 53(4), p. 7-10.
25. Mazarr, M. J. (2017, Jan/Feb). “The Once and Future Order”, Foreign Affairs, 96(1), p. 25-32.
26. Mead, W. R. (2017, Mar/Apr). “The Jacksonian Revolt: American Populism and The Liberal Order”, Foreign Affairs, 96(3), p. 2-7.
27. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2019, Spring). “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of The Liberal International Order”, International Security, 43(4), p. 7-50, doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00342.
28. Niblett, R. (2016, August 31). “World Order in Peril”, Berlin Policy Journal, http://berlinpolicyjournal.com/world-order-in-peril/ [Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2019].
29. Niblett, R. (2017, Jan/Feb). “Liberalism in Retreat”, Foreign Affairs, 96(1), p. 17-24.
30. Nye Jr., J. S. (2017, Jan/Feb). “Will The Liberal Order Survive?”, Foreign Affairs, 96(1), p. 10-16.
31. Özel, S. (2017, Aralık 03). “Siyasetçiler ve Sınıf Savaşları”, Habertürk, http://www.haberturk.com/yazarlar/soli-ozel/1739052-siyasetciler-ve-sinif-savaslari# [Erişim Tarihi: 25.09.2019].
32. Parmar, I. (2018). “The US-Led Liberal Order: Imperialism by Another Name?”, International Affairs, 94(1), p. 151-172, doi: 10.1093/ia/iix240.
33. Patrick, S. M. (2017, Mar/Apr). “Trump and World Order: The Return of Self-Help”, Foreign Affairs, 96(2), p. 52-57.
34. Peterson, J. (2018). “Present at the Destruction? The Liberal Order in the Trump Era,” The International Spectator, 53(1), p. 28-44, https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2018.1421295.
35. Polanyi, K. (2002). Büyük Dönüşüm: Çağımızın Siyasal ve Ekonomik Kökenleri (A. Buğra Çev.), İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
36. Posen, B. (2018, Mar/Apr). “The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony: Trump’s Surprising Grand Strategy”, Foreign Affairs, 97(2), p. 20-27.
37. Reich, R. (2019, December 26). “Trump Has Turned His Back on The Working Class”, Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/trump-has-turned-his-back-working-class-opinion-1478952 [Erişim Tarihi: 01.02.2020].
38. Rodrik, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and The Future of The World Economy. New York: W. W. Norton & Co.
39. Ruggie, J. G. (1982). “International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Post-War Economic Order”, International Organization, 36(2), p. 379-415.
40. Sachs, J. (2017, December 03). “The GOP’s Rush to Tax Cuts was Brainless”, CNN, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/02/opinions/gop-tax-plan-brainless-sachs-opinion/index.html [Erişim Tarihi: 12.07.2019].
41. Tooze, A. (2019, January 30). “Everything You Know about Global Order is Wrong”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/30/everything-you-know-about-global-order-is-wrong/ [Erişim Tarihi: 12.05.2019].
42. The Economist, (2016, July 27). “Globalisation Backlash 2.0”, https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/07/economics-and-politics-0, [Erişim Tarihi: 30.08.2019]. Time, (2017, November 18). “The Republican Tax Bill’s Winners and Losers”, http://time.com/5030731/the-republican-tax-bills-winners-and-losers/?xid=homepage, [Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2019].
43. Trump, D. J. (2017). Yeniden Büyük Amerika: Gücünü Kaybeden Amerika’yı Ayağa Kaldırmak, İstanbul: Pegasus Yayınları.
44. Ulagay, O. (2017). Dünya Trump’a Mı Kalacak? “Tek Adam” Çıkmazı, İstanbul: Doğan Kitap.
45. Ülger, İ. K., (2019, Kasım 28). “AB’nin İç Sorunları Derinleşiyor”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/abnin-ic-sorunlari-derinlesiyor-/1658118 [Erişim Tarihi: 13.01.2020].
46. Walt, S. M. (2016, June 26). “The Collapse of The Liberal World Order”, Foreign Policy, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/26/the-collapse-of-the-liberal-world-order-european-union-brexit-donald-trump/ [Erişim Tarihi: 26.01.2019].
47. Walt, S. M. (2018). “The Donald versus “The Blob””, In R. Jervis, F. Gavin, J. Rovner, D. N. Labrosse (Eds.), Chaos in The Liberal Order: The Trump Presidency and International Politics in The Twenty-First Century, New York: Columbia University Press, p. 40-47.
48. Yılmaz, B. (2017, Kasım 21). “Küreselleşme ve 21. Yüzyılda Çözüm Bekleyen Sorunlarımız”, Anadolu Ajansı, http://aa.com.tr/tr/analiz-haber/kuresellesme-ve-21-yuzyilda-cozum-bekleyen-sorunlarimiz/972674 [Erişim Tarihi: 17.08.2019].