Donald Trump’ın Başkanlığında İran Elitlerinin Kore Krizi’ne İlişkin Algılarında Süreklilik ve Değişim

Öz

Donald Trump’ın cumhurbaşkanlığının ilk yarısında Kore Yarımadası’nda yaşanan çekişmelerin artması, aynı dönemde Singapur, Hanoi ve Askerden Arındırılmış Bölge (DMZ)’de gerçekleştirilen iki Trump - Kim zirvesi akabinde yaşanan yeni gelişmeler ve ABD’nin Kapsamlı Ortak Eylem Planı olarak bilinen İran nükleer anlaşmasından tek taraflı olarak çekilmesi, İranlı siyasi elitleri Kore Krizini daha yakından takip etmeye, yarımadadaki sorunların geleceğine dair tutumlarını ele almaya ve ABD'nin Pyongyang'a yönelik seçeneklerini değerlendirmeye sevk etmiştir. İranlı siyasi elitlerin çoğu Kore Krizinin askeri bir çözümü̈ bulunmadığına ve Yarımada'da barış için tek yolun özellikle bu krizin kökenine odaklanan ciddi ve dengeli bir müzakere sürecinden geçtiğine inanmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, İranlı elitler arasında Kore Krizi’ne ilişkin iki temel algı eğiliminin varlığından söz edilebilir. Makalenin bulguları, ABD’nin İran nükleer anlaşmasına yönelik tutumunun İranlı entelektüeller arasında Kuzey Kore nükleer programı için yapılabilecek herhangi bir yapıcı müzakerenin geleceğine yönelik daha olumsuz bir algıya yol açtığını, ancak İranlı entelektüellerin ABD’nin sert güç ve diğer sert seçenekler kullanacağı fikrinden uzaklaşarak daha çok yumuşak güç ve psikolojik savaşa yoğunlaştığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuzey Kore,Nükleer program,İranlı entelektüeller,JCPOA,Donald Trump

Continuity and Change in the Perception of Iranian Elites toward the Korean Crisis in Donald Trump’s Presidency

Öz

The escalation of conflicts on the Korean Peninsula during the first half of Trump`s presidency, also the new developments following the Trump – Kim summits in Singapore, Hanoi and the DMZ in one side and the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the other side have made the Iranian intellectuals to review the Korean crisis more thoroughly and reflect their attitudes about the future of issues in the peninsula and the U.S. options towards Pyongyang. Although, it seems most of the Iranian scholars believe the Korean crisis has no military solution and the only path for peace in the Peninsula would be serious and balanced negotiations with a special focus on the roots of the crisis, two trends of perception toward the crisis could be identified among the Iranian elites. The findings of the paper demonstrate that the U.S. behavior toward JCPOA, has raised further negative views about the future of any constructive negotiation on North Korean nuclear program among the Iranian intellectuals but their focus on U.S. use of hard power and harsh options have shifted to the implementation of American soft power and psychological war.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• North Korea,Nuclear program,Iranian intellectuals,JCPOA,Donald Trump

Kaynakça

1. Aminabadi, S.M. (2013, April 18). United states- North Korea: Roots of the Crisis. Keyhan newspaper, P. 5.
2. Appleman, Roy E (1998). South to the Naktong, North to the Yalu. New York: United States Army Center of Military History Publication.
3. Baeidinejad, H. (2018). The Trump-Kim Summit. Retrieved on 10/10/2018 from : https://www.instagram.com/hamid_baeidinejad.
4. Baghi, M. (2017). Three scenarios for dealing with North Korea. World economy Research Institute Forum, Retrieved on 30/1/2018 from: https://www.donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/tiny/news-3320590.
5. Baqi, Malak Salim (2018). The Korean Conflict, International Security Seminars. Retrieved on 3/11/2019 from: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Malak_Baqi/publication/329630196_The_Korean_Conflict/links/5c12f6bd299bf139c756c4d9/The-Korean-Conflict.pdf.
6. Barzegar, K. (2018, June 13). The Minimum Agreement, Shargh Newspaper, P. 12.
7. Bashari, I. (2017). The Dimensions and Reasons for the Verbal Tension between Washington and Pyongyang: The Different Levels of the North Korean Oil Sanctions. Iranian Labours News Agency (ILNA). Retrieved on 2/3/2018 from: https://www.ilnanews.com/fa/tiny/news-539010.
8. Campbel, J (2014). The Wrong War: The Soviets and the Korean War. International Social Science Review, 88 (1): 1-28.

9. Cumings, B. (2010). The Korean War: A History, New York: Modern Library
10. Danesh Yazdi, M. (2013). How North Korea Became a Nuclear State? Iranian Diplomacy blog Retrieved on 2/4/2018 from: http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/page/1915935/کره+شمالی+چگونه+هسته+ای+شد؟.html.
11. Gol Anbari, S. (2018). Why Trump says Iran is not the former country? Iranian diplomacy blog. Retrieved on 24/9/2018 from: http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/1978100/چرا-ترامپ-می-گوید-ایران-دیگر-آن-کشور-سابق-نیست.
12. Harvey, L. (2019), Discourse analysis, Social Research Glossary. Retrieved on 3/11/2019 from: http://www.qualityresearchinternational.com/socialresearch/
13. Iranmhr, S. (2018). What is important about Kim-Trump summit? Retrieved on 11/9/2018 from: https://medium.com/@maslub.maslub/چه-چیزِ-مذاکره-اون-و-ترامپ-مهم-است-161800.
14. Karimi, Gh. (2018). The United States and the Limitation of Options toward North Korea. IRNA news agency. Retrieved on 12/3/2018 from: http://www.irna.ir/fa/News/82669461.
15. Kebriaei Zadeh, H. (2018). JCPOA Lessons for North Korea's talks with the United States. Abrare Moasere International Research Institute. Retrieved on 12/12/2018 from: www.tisri.org/default-2746.aspx.
16. Mahoney, J and Rueschemeyer, D. (2003). Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
17. Mansouri, J. (2018). The trade war between the United States and China is rooted in the North Korean crisis. Young Journalists Club News Agency. Retrieved on 17/5/2018 from: https://www.yjc.ir/fa/print/6492822.
18. Mottaghi, E. (2018). North Korea is far different from Iran, Young Journalists Club News Agency. Retrieved on 16/10/2018 from: https://www.yjc.ir/00ICnN.
19. Mousavian, S.H. (2017, October 10). Préservons l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien, c’est le modèle à suivre avec la Corée du Nord. Le Monde, P. 8.
20. Musavi, H. (2018). Iran and the Negotiations between Un and Trump. Aftab Yazd News Agency Blog. Retrieved on 20/3/2018 from: http://aftabeyazd.ir/?newsid=101098.
21. Musavi, S.R (2018). Trump wants to be the main part of JCPOA, ISNA news agency. Retrieved on 30/8/2018 from: https://www.isna.ir/news/97040200666/.
22. Neto, O & Rodriguez, J (2016). The new comparative-historical method and its contributions to political science and public administration, Rev. Adm. Pública, 50(6):1003-1026.
23. Northwestern University (2019), Comparative-Historical Analysis, Northwestern University Website. Retrieved on 28/9/2019 from: https://www.polisci.northwestern.edu/research/subfieldspecialties/comparative-historical-studies.html.
24. Poursina, B. (2017). The Relationship between North Korea's Crisis and U.S. Policies toward JCPOA. IRNA news agency blog. Retrieved on 12/7/2018 from: http://www.irna.ir/fa/News/82671347.
25. Reuters, (2017). Merkel suggests Iran-style nuclear talks to end North Korea crisis” Reuters News. Retrieved on 29/2/2018 from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-germany/merkel-suggests-iran-style-nuclear-talks-to-end-north-korea-crisis idUSKCN1BK0WU.
26. Rezaei, M. (2018). Trump and Military Option toward North Korea. Abrare Moasere International Research Institute. Retrieved on 10/09/2018 from: http://www.tisri.org/default-2727.aspx.
27. Rezaei, M. and Farahzadeh, M. (2018) The issue of uncertainty in the analysis of the crisis between North Korea and the United States. Quarterly Journal of Foreign Policy, 31 (4): 101-150
28. Sajedi, M. (2017), The North Korean Crisis: U.S. excuse for its presence in East Asia. Young Journalists Club News Agency. Retrieved on 30/10/ 2018 from: https://www.yjc.ir/fa/news/6319349/بحران-کره-شمالی-بهانه-تشدید-حضور-آمریکا-در-شرق-آسیا.html.
29. Shafiei, N. (2018). The North Korean Crisis: U.S. excuse for presence in Eastern Hemisphere, Hamshahri News. Retrieved on 12/2/ 2018 from: http://hamshahrionline.ir/details/366950/world/views. Accessed
30. Shahmoradi, H. (2017). The Analysis of Korean Reunification Possibility and Its Probable Effects on the National Interests of Islamic Republic of Iran. (Unpublished master's thesis), School of International Relations affiliated with Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tehran, Iran
31. Shariatinia, M. (2018, April 28.). Like the Arab Spring? Etemad News Paper, P. 3.
32. Shokuhi Nasab, H. (2017). North Korean crisis and the dangers of continuing tensions. IRNA news agency blog. Retrieved on 12/8/2018 from: http://www.irna.ir/fa/News/82673203.
33. Soltanpour, M. (2017). The Probable Consequences of Second Korean War. Iranian Diplomacy blog Retrieved on 30/5/2018 from: http://irdiplomacy.ir/fa/page/1971822.html.
34. Souri, R. (2018). Does North Korea really stop its nuclear program? Jamaran News Blog. Retrieved on 18/9/2018 from: https://www.jamaran.ir/fa/tiny/news-890675.
35. Washington Post (2017). Americans Trust U.S. Military Generals More than Trump. Retrieved on 8/2/2018 from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-far-more-trust-generals-than-trump-on-n-korea-while-two-thirds-oppose-preemptive-strike/2017/09/23/5cc4377c-9fbb-11e7-8ea1-ed975285475e_story.html.
36. Zare, M (2017). East Asia and the Future of the International System. The Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies Blog. Retrieved on 10/10/2018 from: http://www.iras.ir/fa/russia/www.iras.irfa/doc/note/3344/شرق-آسیا-آینده-نظام-بین-الملل.
37. Zare, M. (2018). The outlook for the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Abrare Moaser International Research Institute. Retrieved on 14/10/2018 from: http://www.tisri.org/default-2530.aspx.