EFFECT OF INVESTOR SENTIMENT ON STOCK MARKETS

Abstract

Motivation of this study is to examine the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market by taking financial crisis period into account. When literature is examined, it is seen that there is a deficiency in this respect. Although there are studies examining same phenomena, none of them has considered the impact of financial crisis. To eliminate this deficiency, we have employed tests with structural breaks rather than conventional ones. At the end of these tests, structural breaks are observed at crisis period as it is expected. By employing data for the period December 2003- December 2012 existence of co-integration, which is an indicator of a long-term relationship between variables, is proved. This is a significant insight showing that consumer confidence index is a critical factor which is in an interaction with stock markets

Keywords

• Stock Markets
• Investor Sentiment
• Consumer Confidence Index
• Financial Crisis
• Cointegration

ATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞININ HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASALARINA ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışma finansal kriz döneminin etkisini de göz önünde bulundurarak yatırımcı duyarlılığı ile borsa arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırma amacıyla hazırlanmıştır. Akademik literatür incelendiğinde bu alanda bir eksiklik görülmüştür. Aynı konuyu araştıran birçok makale olmasına rağmen, hiçbiri finansal krizlerin etkisini hesaba katmamıştır. Bu eksikliği gidermek adına bu çalışmada standart testler yerine yapısal kırılmalı testler kullanılmıştır. Testlerin sonucunda beklentiye paralel olarak kriz döneminde yapısal kırılmalar tespit edilmiştir. Aralık 2003-Aralık 2012 verisi kullanılarak yapılan analizlerde değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını gösteren eşbütünleşmenin varlığı kanıtlanmıştır. Buda borsalarla etkileşim içinde olan tüketici güven endeksinin kritik bir faktör olduğu gösteren bir bulgudur.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hisse Senedi Piyasaları
• Yatırımcı Duyarlılığı
• Tüketici Güven Endeksi
• Finansal Kriz
• Eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

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