FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE

Abstract

Financial dollarization has increased substantially in emerging markets in recent years. A material increase in financial dollarization may concern policy makers but it also serves as a cushion for banks and the states. Increase in foreign Exchange deposits may arise from the need to preserve purchasing power, speculation or liquidity concerns. This paper aims to shed light to the relation between foreign exchange deposits and factors such as sight FX deposits, USD/TRY parity, CPI, confidence ındex, VIX, TL deposits, dollar index via a VECM model. Sight FX deposits are found to be a positive and a statistically significant influencing factor on FX deposits; whereas, confidence index and CPI have a negative but a significant relation with FX deposits. Factors that have an influence on the increase in foreign Exchange deposits shall be closely monitored to mitigate the adverse effects of it. 

Keywords

• Financial Dollarization,Foreign Exchange Deposits,Emerging Markets

GELİŞMEKTE OLAN EKONOMİLERDE YABANCI PARA MEVUDATININ DEĞİŞİMİNİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Son yıllarda finansal dolarizasyon gelişen piyasalarda ciddi şekilde artış göstermiştir. Finansal dolarizasyondaki bu artış politika yapıcıları kaygılandırabileceği gibi, bankalar ve devlet için bir yastık görevi görür. Döviz mevduat hesaplarındaki artışın nedeni; alım gücünü korumak, spekülasyon veya likidite kaygısı olabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz mevduat hesapları ile vadesiz hesaplar, TL/USD, enflasyon, güven endeksi, oynaklık endeksi, TL mevduatlar, dolar endeksi gibi değişkenlerin ilişkisine VECM modeli kullanarak ışık tutmaktır.  Vadesiz döviz mevduat hesapları ile pozitif anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilirken; enflasyon ile negative, anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Döviz mevduat hesaplarındaki artışın olası, olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirgemek için etki eden unsurları yakınen izlenmelidir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Dolarizasyon,Döviz Mevduat Hesapları

Kaynakça

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