Araştırma Makalesi
PDF EndNote BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE

Yıl 2019, Cilt 11, Sayı 21, 264 - 286, 31.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.623408

Öz

Financial dollarization has increased substantially in emerging markets in recent years. A material increase in financial dollarization may concern policy makers but it also serves as a cushion for banks and the states. Increase in foreign Exchange deposits may arise from the need to preserve purchasing power, speculation or liquidity concerns. This paper aims to shed light to the relation between foreign exchange deposits and factors such as sight FX deposits, USD/TRY parity, CPI, confidence ındex, VIX, TL deposits, dollar index via a VECM model. Sight FX deposits are found to be a positive and a statistically significant influencing factor on FX deposits; whereas, confidence index and CPI have a negative but a significant relation with FX deposits. Factors that have an influence on the increase in foreign Exchange deposits shall be closely monitored to mitigate the adverse effects of it. 

Kaynakça

  • Arteta, C. Ó. 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?" Center for International and Development Research Paper C02-123, University of California, Berkley. Bacha, E., M. Holland and F. Goncalves, 2007, “Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets,” IMF Working Paper 07/294. Barajas, A. and A. Morales, 2003. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects." International Monetary Fund Working Paper 03/11. Broda, Christian M. & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo. "Endogenous Deposit Dollarization." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 38 no. 4, 2006, pp. 963-988. Calvo, Guillermo, A., Alejandro Izquierdo, and Ernesto Talvi. 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets." American Economic Review, 96 (2): 405-410. De Nicoló, G., P. Honohan, and A. Ize (2003). “Dollarization of the banking system: good or bad?”. IMF Working Paper WP/03/146. Frankel,J. and Cavallo, E. (2008). 'Does opening to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality', Journal of International Money and Finance, 27 (8) , pp. 1430-1452. Honig, A. (2009), ìDollarization, Exchange Rate Regimes and Government Quality,î Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 198ñ214. Honohan, P., 2007. Dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations. CEPR Discussion Paper 6205. Ize, A., and E. L. Yeyati. 2003. “Financial Dollarization.” Journal of International Economics 59 (2): 323–47. Kishor, Narayan K., and Kyriakos C. Neanidis. 2015. “What Is Driving Financial Dollarization in Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 19 (04): 816–35. Kizildere, C , Kabadayı, B , Emsen, Ö . "Dış Ticaretin Döviz Kuru Değişimlerine Duyarlılığı: Türkiye üzerine bir İnceleme". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2015): Luca, A., and I. Petrova ,2003. “Credit Dollarization in Transition Economies: Is It Firms’ or Banks’ Fault?,” Mimeo Drexel University. Mendoza, Enrique, 2008, “Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin’s Q,” NBER WP. 14444. Mercado, R, 2019, “Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows” Emerging Markets Review 38, 251–264 Neanidis, Kyriakos C., and Christos S. Savva. 2009. “Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies.” Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (10): 1860–73. Vieira, F.A.C., M. Holland, and M.F. Resende (2012), ìFinancial Dollarization and Systemic Risks: New Empirical Evidence,îJournal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1695-1714.

GELİŞMEKTE OLAN EKONOMİLERDE YABANCI PARA MEVUDATININ DEĞİŞİMİNİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2019, Cilt 11, Sayı 21, 264 - 286, 31.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.623408

Öz

Son yıllarda finansal dolarizasyon gelişen piyasalarda ciddi şekilde artış göstermiştir. Finansal dolarizasyondaki bu artış politika yapıcıları kaygılandırabileceği gibi, bankalar ve devlet için bir yastık görevi görür. Döviz mevduat hesaplarındaki artışın nedeni; alım gücünü korumak, spekülasyon veya likidite kaygısı olabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz mevduat hesapları ile vadesiz hesaplar, TL/USD, enflasyon, güven endeksi, oynaklık endeksi, TL mevduatlar, dolar endeksi gibi değişkenlerin ilişkisine VECM modeli kullanarak ışık tutmaktır.  Vadesiz döviz mevduat hesapları ile pozitif anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilirken; enflasyon ile negative, anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Döviz mevduat hesaplarındaki artışın olası, olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirgemek için etki eden unsurları yakınen izlenmelidir

Kaynakça

  • Arteta, C. Ó. 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?" Center for International and Development Research Paper C02-123, University of California, Berkley. Bacha, E., M. Holland and F. Goncalves, 2007, “Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets,” IMF Working Paper 07/294. Barajas, A. and A. Morales, 2003. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects." International Monetary Fund Working Paper 03/11. Broda, Christian M. & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo. "Endogenous Deposit Dollarization." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 38 no. 4, 2006, pp. 963-988. Calvo, Guillermo, A., Alejandro Izquierdo, and Ernesto Talvi. 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets." American Economic Review, 96 (2): 405-410. De Nicoló, G., P. Honohan, and A. Ize (2003). “Dollarization of the banking system: good or bad?”. IMF Working Paper WP/03/146. Frankel,J. and Cavallo, E. (2008). 'Does opening to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality', Journal of International Money and Finance, 27 (8) , pp. 1430-1452. Honig, A. (2009), ìDollarization, Exchange Rate Regimes and Government Quality,î Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 198ñ214. Honohan, P., 2007. Dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations. CEPR Discussion Paper 6205. Ize, A., and E. L. Yeyati. 2003. “Financial Dollarization.” Journal of International Economics 59 (2): 323–47. Kishor, Narayan K., and Kyriakos C. Neanidis. 2015. “What Is Driving Financial Dollarization in Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 19 (04): 816–35. Kizildere, C , Kabadayı, B , Emsen, Ö . "Dış Ticaretin Döviz Kuru Değişimlerine Duyarlılığı: Türkiye üzerine bir İnceleme". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2015): Luca, A., and I. Petrova ,2003. “Credit Dollarization in Transition Economies: Is It Firms’ or Banks’ Fault?,” Mimeo Drexel University. Mendoza, Enrique, 2008, “Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin’s Q,” NBER WP. 14444. Mercado, R, 2019, “Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows” Emerging Markets Review 38, 251–264 Neanidis, Kyriakos C., and Christos S. Savva. 2009. “Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies.” Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (10): 1860–73. Vieira, F.A.C., M. Holland, and M.F. Resende (2012), ìFinancial Dollarization and Systemic Risks: New Empirical Evidence,îJournal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1695-1714.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sıtkı SÖNMEZER> (Sorumlu Yazar)

0000-0002-9704-2199


İsmail Erkan ÇELİK Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2019
Başvuru Tarihi 13 Mayıs 2019
Kabul Tarihi 12 Haziran 2019
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019, Cilt 11, Sayı 21

Kaynak Göster

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { marufacd623408, journal = {Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi}, issn = {1309-1123}, eissn = {2529-0029}, address = {}, publisher = {Marmara Üniversitesi}, year = {2019}, volume = {11}, number = {21}, pages = {264 - 286}, doi = {10.14784/marufacd.623408}, title = {FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE}, key = {cite}, author = {Sönmezer, Sıtkı and Çelik, İsmail Erkan} }
APA Sönmezer, S. & Çelik, İ. E. (2019). FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE . Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi , 11 (21) , 264-286 . DOI: 10.14784/marufacd.623408
MLA Sönmezer, S. , Çelik, İ. E. "FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE" . Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 11 (2019 ): 264-286 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/marufacd/issue/48758/623408>
Chicago Sönmezer, S. , Çelik, İ. E. "FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 11 (2019 ): 264-286
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - GELİŞMEKTE OLAN EKONOMİLERDE YABANCI PARA MEVUDATININ DEĞİŞİMİNİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ AU - SıtkıSönmezer, İsmail ErkanÇelik Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.14784/marufacd.623408 DO - 10.14784/marufacd.623408 T2 - Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 264 EP - 286 VL - 11 IS - 21 SN - 1309-1123-2529-0029 M3 - doi: 10.14784/marufacd.623408 UR - https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.623408 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE %A Sıtkı Sönmezer , İsmail Erkan Çelik %T FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE %D 2019 %J Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi %P 1309-1123-2529-0029 %V 11 %N 21 %R doi: 10.14784/marufacd.623408 %U 10.14784/marufacd.623408
ISNAD Sönmezer, Sıtkı , Çelik, İsmail Erkan . "FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 11 / 21 (Temmuz 2019): 264-286 . https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.623408
AMA Sönmezer S. , Çelik İ. E. FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE. JFRS. 2019; 11(21): 264-286.
Vancouver Sönmezer S. , Çelik İ. E. FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 2019; 11(21): 264-286.
IEEE S. Sönmezer ve İ. E. Çelik , "FACTORS CAUSING CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEPOSITS IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY: TURKEY CASE", Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, c. 11, sayı. 21, ss. 264-286, Tem. 2019, doi:10.14784/marufacd.623408