Öz
Financial dollarization has increased substantially in
emerging markets in recent years. A material increase in financial
dollarization may concern policy makers but it also serves as a cushion for
banks and the states. Increase in foreign Exchange deposits may arise from the
need to preserve purchasing power, speculation or liquidity concerns. This
paper aims to shed light to the relation between foreign exchange deposits and
factors such as sight FX deposits, USD/TRY parity, CPI, confidence ındex, VIX,
TL deposits, dollar index via a VECM model. Sight FX deposits are found to be a
positive and a statistically significant influencing factor on FX deposits;
whereas, confidence index and CPI have a negative but a significant relation with
FX deposits. Factors that have an influence on the increase in foreign Exchange
deposits shall be closely monitored to mitigate the adverse effects of it.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Financial Dollarization Foreign Exchange Deposits Emerging Markets
Kaynakça
- Arteta, C. Ó. 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?" Center for International and Development Research Paper C02-123, University of California, Berkley. Bacha, E., M. Holland and F. Goncalves, 2007, “Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets,” IMF Working Paper 07/294. Barajas, A. and A. Morales, 2003. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects." International Monetary Fund Working Paper 03/11. Broda, Christian M. & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo. "Endogenous Deposit Dollarization." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 38 no. 4, 2006, pp. 963-988. Calvo, Guillermo, A., Alejandro Izquierdo, and Ernesto Talvi. 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets." American Economic Review, 96 (2): 405-410. De Nicoló, G., P. Honohan, and A. Ize (2003). “Dollarization of the banking system: good or bad?”. IMF Working Paper WP/03/146. Frankel,J. and Cavallo, E. (2008). 'Does opening to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality', Journal of International Money and Finance, 27 (8) , pp. 1430-1452. Honig, A. (2009), ìDollarization, Exchange Rate Regimes and Government Quality,î Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 198ñ214. Honohan, P., 2007. Dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations. CEPR Discussion Paper 6205. Ize, A., and E. L. Yeyati. 2003. “Financial Dollarization.” Journal of International Economics 59 (2): 323–47. Kishor, Narayan K., and Kyriakos C. Neanidis. 2015. “What Is Driving Financial Dollarization in Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 19 (04): 816–35. Kizildere, C , Kabadayı, B , Emsen, Ö . "Dış Ticaretin Döviz Kuru Değişimlerine Duyarlılığı: Türkiye üzerine bir İnceleme". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2015): Luca, A., and I. Petrova ,2003. “Credit Dollarization in Transition Economies: Is It Firms’ or Banks’ Fault?,” Mimeo Drexel University. Mendoza, Enrique, 2008, “Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin’s Q,” NBER WP. 14444. Mercado, R, 2019, “Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows” Emerging Markets Review 38, 251–264 Neanidis, Kyriakos C., and Christos S. Savva. 2009. “Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies.” Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (10): 1860–73. Vieira, F.A.C., M. Holland, and M.F. Resende (2012), ìFinancial Dollarization and Systemic Risks: New Empirical Evidence,îJournal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1695-1714.
GELİŞMEKTE OLAN EKONOMİLERDE YABANCI PARA MEVUDATININ DEĞİŞİMİNİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ
Öz
Son yıllarda finansal dolarizasyon gelişen piyasalarda
ciddi şekilde artış göstermiştir. Finansal dolarizasyondaki bu artış politika
yapıcıları kaygılandırabileceği gibi, bankalar ve devlet için bir yastık görevi
görür. Döviz mevduat hesaplarındaki artışın nedeni; alım gücünü korumak,
spekülasyon veya likidite kaygısı olabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz mevduat
hesapları ile vadesiz hesaplar, TL/USD, enflasyon, güven endeksi, oynaklık
endeksi, TL mevduatlar, dolar endeksi gibi değişkenlerin ilişkisine VECM modeli
kullanarak ışık tutmaktır. Vadesiz döviz
mevduat hesapları ile pozitif anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilirken; enflasyon
ile negative, anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Döviz mevduat hesaplarındaki
artışın olası, olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirgemek için etki eden unsurları
yakınen izlenmelidir
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Arteta, C. Ó. 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?" Center for International and Development Research Paper C02-123, University of California, Berkley. Bacha, E., M. Holland and F. Goncalves, 2007, “Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets,” IMF Working Paper 07/294. Barajas, A. and A. Morales, 2003. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects." International Monetary Fund Working Paper 03/11. Broda, Christian M. & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo. "Endogenous Deposit Dollarization." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 38 no. 4, 2006, pp. 963-988. Calvo, Guillermo, A., Alejandro Izquierdo, and Ernesto Talvi. 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets." American Economic Review, 96 (2): 405-410. De Nicoló, G., P. Honohan, and A. Ize (2003). “Dollarization of the banking system: good or bad?”. IMF Working Paper WP/03/146. Frankel,J. and Cavallo, E. (2008). 'Does opening to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality', Journal of International Money and Finance, 27 (8) , pp. 1430-1452. Honig, A. (2009), ìDollarization, Exchange Rate Regimes and Government Quality,î Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 198ñ214. Honohan, P., 2007. Dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations. CEPR Discussion Paper 6205. Ize, A., and E. L. Yeyati. 2003. “Financial Dollarization.” Journal of International Economics 59 (2): 323–47. Kishor, Narayan K., and Kyriakos C. Neanidis. 2015. “What Is Driving Financial Dollarization in Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 19 (04): 816–35. Kizildere, C , Kabadayı, B , Emsen, Ö . "Dış Ticaretin Döviz Kuru Değişimlerine Duyarlılığı: Türkiye üzerine bir İnceleme". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2015): Luca, A., and I. Petrova ,2003. “Credit Dollarization in Transition Economies: Is It Firms’ or Banks’ Fault?,” Mimeo Drexel University. Mendoza, Enrique, 2008, “Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin’s Q,” NBER WP. 14444. Mercado, R, 2019, “Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows” Emerging Markets Review 38, 251–264 Neanidis, Kyriakos C., and Christos S. Savva. 2009. “Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies.” Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (10): 1860–73. Vieira, F.A.C., M. Holland, and M.F. Resende (2012), ìFinancial Dollarization and Systemic Risks: New Empirical Evidence,îJournal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1695-1714.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Temmuz 2019 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 13 Mayıs 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 21 |