TÜRKİYE’DE 1999-2013 VERİLERİ IŞIĞINDA BANKALARIN KALDIRAÇ ORANI, KREDİ GÖSTERGELERİ, CARİ HESAP DENGESİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 11, 99 - 118, 27.01.2015

Göksel Tiryaki

https://doi.org/10.14784/JFRS.2014117330

Öz

Kaldıraç, Kredi Büyümesi, Kredi/Mevduat ve Kredi Takip Oranı gibi göstergelerin Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH) büyümesi ve Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) üzerinde ne kadar etkili ve bunlarla ne kadar ilişkili olduğu finansal ekonomi literatüründe ciddi şekilde tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, söz konusu kredi göstergelerinin sözünü ettiğimiz iki temel makro ekonomik değişken üzerindeki önemi analiz edilmiştir. Yaptığımız çalışma sonucuna göre, kullandığımız kredi göstergeleri Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) ile GSYH büyümesine göre daha fazla ilişki ve nedensellik göstermiştir. Bankaların Kaldıraç Oranı da diğer kredi göstergelerine nazaran hem Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) hem de GSYH büyümesi açısından daha fazla önem arz etmiştir. Bu nedenle finansal istikrarın desteklenmesi amacıyla bankaların Kaldıraç Oranının bir politika aracı ve hedefi olarak kullanılmasının diğer kredi göstergelerine kıyasla daha etkin bir yöntem olacağı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kredi Göstergeleri, Kredi Büyümesi, Kaldıraç, GSYH Büyümesi, Cari Hesap Dengesi

BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013)

Öz

The influence of credit indicators, such as Banking Leverage, Credit Growth Rate, Credit/Deposit and Non-performing Loans Ratios over growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Current Account Balance are both very substantial and argumentative matters for financial economics literature. In this study, the importance of these credit indicators over two main parameters of macroeconomic environment is analyzed. According to the analysis results, credit indicators are more influential and show more causality over current account balance than GDP. On the other hand Banking Leverage is more influential and shows more causality over current account balance and GDP than other credit indicators. As for policy implications, our findings implies that banking leverage is more effective regulation and policy tool as macro prudential measures and targets in order to sustain financial stability than other credit indicators

Anahtar Kelimeler

Credit Indicators, Credit Growth, Banking Leverage, GDP Growth, Current Account Balance

Kaynakça

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