Araştırma Makalesi
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TÜRKİYE’DE 1999-2013 VERİLERİ IŞIĞINDA BANKALARIN KALDIRAÇ ORANI, KREDİ GÖSTERGELERİ, CARİ HESAP DENGESİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME

Yıl 2014, Cilt 6, Sayı 11, 99 - 118, 27.01.2015
https://doi.org/10.14784/JFRS.2014117330

Öz

Kaldıraç, Kredi Büyümesi, Kredi/Mevduat ve Kredi Takip Oranı gibi göstergelerin Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH) büyümesi ve Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) üzerinde ne kadar etkili ve bunlarla ne kadar ilişkili olduğu finansal ekonomi literatüründe ciddi şekilde tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, söz konusu kredi göstergelerinin sözünü ettiğimiz iki temel makro ekonomik değişken üzerindeki önemi analiz edilmiştir. Yaptığımız çalışma sonucuna göre, kullandığımız kredi göstergeleri Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) ile GSYH büyümesine göre daha fazla ilişki ve nedensellik göstermiştir. Bankaların Kaldıraç Oranı da diğer kredi göstergelerine nazaran hem Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) hem de GSYH büyümesi açısından daha fazla önem arz etmiştir. Bu nedenle finansal istikrarın desteklenmesi amacıyla bankaların Kaldıraç Oranının bir politika aracı ve hedefi olarak kullanılmasının diğer kredi göstergelerine kıyasla daha etkin bir yöntem olacağı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. 

Kaynakça

  • AKÇELİK Yasin, ERMİŞOĞLU Ergun and ODUNCU Arif (2013), GDP Growth and Credit Data, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Working Paper No: 13/27, July 2013
  • AMRI Puspa D., PRABHA Apanard P. And WIHLBORG Clas (2012), What Makes High Credit Growth Harmful? Evidence from Banking Crises, December 7, 2012 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=2186569 (15.11.2013)
  • ELEKDAĞ Selim and WU Yiqun (2011), Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/241, October 2011
  • GANİOĞLU Aytül (2013), Rapid Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit as the Leading Determinants of Financial Crises, Discussion Paper, No. 2013-35, July 08, 2013, http://www.economics-ejournal. org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-35 (15.02.2014)
  • JORDA Òscar, SCHULARICK Moritz, and TAYLOR Alan M. (2010), Financial Crises, Credit Booms, And External Imbalances:140 Years Of Lessons, NBER Working Paper 16567, December 2010, http:// www.nber.org/papers/w16567 (15.02.2014)
  • JORDA Òscar, SCHULARICK Moritz, and TAYLOR Alan M. (2011), When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, And Crises, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 1762, November 2011, http://www.nber.org/papers/w17621 (15.02.2014)
  • KAMINSKY Graciela and REINHART Carmen (1999), The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No. 14081, June 1999, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14081/ (18.03.2014)
  • LANE Philip R. and MCQUADE Peter (2013), Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No 1566, July 2013
  • LEITAO Nuno Carlos (2012), Bank Credit and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, The Economic Research Guardian, Vol. 2(2) 2012, 256-267, http://works.bepress.com/nuno_leitao/10 (01.04.2014)
  • NUNO Galo and CARLOS Thomas (2013), Bank Leverage Cycles, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No 1524, March 2013
  • SCHULARICK Moritz and TAYLOR Alan M. (2009), Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles And Financial Crises 1870-2008, National Bureau Of Economic Research (NBER), Working Paper 15512, November 2009, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15512 (15.04.2014)
  • TAYLOR Alan M. (2012), The Great Leveraging, University of Virginia, NBER, and CEPR, July 2012 http://www.bis.org/events/conf120621/taylor.pdf (30.04.2014)
  • TELATAR Erdinç (2011), Türkiye’de Cari Açık Belirleyicileri ve Cari Açık-Krediler İlişkisi, TBB Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 78, 2011, 22-34
  • TİRYAKİ Göksel (2010), Bankacılık Sektöründe -Basel Sermaye Uzlaşıları- Sermaye Yeterliliği Standart Rasyosu Gerçekten Yeterli Midir? Kaldıraç Oranına ve Daha Güçlü Bir Bankacılık Düzenleme Çerçevesine İlişkin Değerlendirmeler, Vergi Dünyası Dergisi, 347. Sayı, Temmuz 2010, 118-122
  • TİRYAKİ G. (2012), Finansal İstikrar ve Bankacılık Düzenlemeleri (1990-2010 Türkiye Tecrübesi Işığında), Türkiye Bankalar Birliği, Kasım 2012
  • TAKATS Előd and UPPER Christian (2013), Credit and growth after financial crises, BIS Working Papers No 416, BIS Monetary and Economic Department, July 2013 Websites
  • MILES David (2011), What is The Optimal Leverage for a Bank, VOX, April 2011, http://www.voxeu.org/ article/what-optimal-leverage-bank (15.04.2014)
  • Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency of Turkey (BRSA) (2014), Statistical Data, http://www.bddk. org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Istatistiki_Veriler/Istatistiki_Veriler.aspx (15.04.2014)
  • Turkish Banking Association (TBA) (2014), Statistical Reports, http://www.tbb.org.tr/tr/Banka_ve_Sektor_ Bilgileri/Tum_Raporlar.aspx (15.04.2014)
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) (2014), Electronic Data Distribution System, http://evds. tcmb.gov.tr/cbt.html (30.04.2014)
  • CAMPOS Nauro F. and DERCON Stefan (2014), Gaps, Cracks and Lacunae: The Finance and Growth Nexus in Low-Income Countries, VOX, March 2014, http://www.voxeu.org/article/finance-and- growth-nexus-low-income-countries (30.04.2014)

BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013)

Yıl 2014, Cilt 6, Sayı 11, 99 - 118, 27.01.2015
https://doi.org/10.14784/JFRS.2014117330

Öz

The influence of credit indicators, such as Banking Leverage, Credit Growth Rate, Credit/Deposit and Non-performing Loans Ratios over growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Current Account Balance are both very substantial and argumentative matters for financial economics literature. In this study, the importance of these credit indicators over two main parameters of macroeconomic environment is analyzed. According to the analysis results, credit indicators are more influential and show more causality over current account balance than GDP. On the other hand Banking Leverage is more influential and shows more causality over current account balance and GDP than other credit indicators. As for policy implications, our findings implies that banking leverage is more effective regulation and policy tool as macro prudential measures and targets in order to sustain financial stability than other credit indicators

Kaynakça

  • AKÇELİK Yasin, ERMİŞOĞLU Ergun and ODUNCU Arif (2013), GDP Growth and Credit Data, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Working Paper No: 13/27, July 2013
  • AMRI Puspa D., PRABHA Apanard P. And WIHLBORG Clas (2012), What Makes High Credit Growth Harmful? Evidence from Banking Crises, December 7, 2012 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=2186569 (15.11.2013)
  • ELEKDAĞ Selim and WU Yiqun (2011), Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/241, October 2011
  • GANİOĞLU Aytül (2013), Rapid Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit as the Leading Determinants of Financial Crises, Discussion Paper, No. 2013-35, July 08, 2013, http://www.economics-ejournal. org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-35 (15.02.2014)
  • JORDA Òscar, SCHULARICK Moritz, and TAYLOR Alan M. (2010), Financial Crises, Credit Booms, And External Imbalances:140 Years Of Lessons, NBER Working Paper 16567, December 2010, http:// www.nber.org/papers/w16567 (15.02.2014)
  • JORDA Òscar, SCHULARICK Moritz, and TAYLOR Alan M. (2011), When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, And Crises, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 1762, November 2011, http://www.nber.org/papers/w17621 (15.02.2014)
  • KAMINSKY Graciela and REINHART Carmen (1999), The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No. 14081, June 1999, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14081/ (18.03.2014)
  • LANE Philip R. and MCQUADE Peter (2013), Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No 1566, July 2013
  • LEITAO Nuno Carlos (2012), Bank Credit and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, The Economic Research Guardian, Vol. 2(2) 2012, 256-267, http://works.bepress.com/nuno_leitao/10 (01.04.2014)
  • NUNO Galo and CARLOS Thomas (2013), Bank Leverage Cycles, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No 1524, March 2013
  • SCHULARICK Moritz and TAYLOR Alan M. (2009), Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles And Financial Crises 1870-2008, National Bureau Of Economic Research (NBER), Working Paper 15512, November 2009, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15512 (15.04.2014)
  • TAYLOR Alan M. (2012), The Great Leveraging, University of Virginia, NBER, and CEPR, July 2012 http://www.bis.org/events/conf120621/taylor.pdf (30.04.2014)
  • TELATAR Erdinç (2011), Türkiye’de Cari Açık Belirleyicileri ve Cari Açık-Krediler İlişkisi, TBB Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 78, 2011, 22-34
  • TİRYAKİ Göksel (2010), Bankacılık Sektöründe -Basel Sermaye Uzlaşıları- Sermaye Yeterliliği Standart Rasyosu Gerçekten Yeterli Midir? Kaldıraç Oranına ve Daha Güçlü Bir Bankacılık Düzenleme Çerçevesine İlişkin Değerlendirmeler, Vergi Dünyası Dergisi, 347. Sayı, Temmuz 2010, 118-122
  • TİRYAKİ G. (2012), Finansal İstikrar ve Bankacılık Düzenlemeleri (1990-2010 Türkiye Tecrübesi Işığında), Türkiye Bankalar Birliği, Kasım 2012
  • TAKATS Előd and UPPER Christian (2013), Credit and growth after financial crises, BIS Working Papers No 416, BIS Monetary and Economic Department, July 2013 Websites
  • MILES David (2011), What is The Optimal Leverage for a Bank, VOX, April 2011, http://www.voxeu.org/ article/what-optimal-leverage-bank (15.04.2014)
  • Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency of Turkey (BRSA) (2014), Statistical Data, http://www.bddk. org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Istatistiki_Veriler/Istatistiki_Veriler.aspx (15.04.2014)
  • Turkish Banking Association (TBA) (2014), Statistical Reports, http://www.tbb.org.tr/tr/Banka_ve_Sektor_ Bilgileri/Tum_Raporlar.aspx (15.04.2014)
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) (2014), Electronic Data Distribution System, http://evds. tcmb.gov.tr/cbt.html (30.04.2014)
  • CAMPOS Nauro F. and DERCON Stefan (2014), Gaps, Cracks and Lacunae: The Finance and Growth Nexus in Low-Income Countries, VOX, March 2014, http://www.voxeu.org/article/finance-and- growth-nexus-low-income-countries (30.04.2014)

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Göksel TİRYAKİ>

0000-0002-9689-0620

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Ocak 2015
Başvuru Tarihi 27 Ocak 2015
Kabul Tarihi
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014, Cilt 6, Sayı 11

Kaynak Göster

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { marufacd4610, journal = {Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi}, issn = {1309-1123}, eissn = {2529-0029}, address = {}, publisher = {Marmara Üniversitesi}, year = {2015}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {99 - 118}, doi = {10.14784/JFRS.2014117330}, title = {BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013)}, key = {cite}, author = {Tiryaki, Göksel} }
APA Tiryaki, G. (2015). BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013) . Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi , 6 (11) , 99-118 . DOI: 10.14784/JFRS.2014117330
MLA Tiryaki, G. "BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013)" . Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 6 (2015 ): 99-118 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/marufacd/issue/508/4610>
Chicago Tiryaki, G. "BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013)". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 6 (2015 ): 99-118
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - TÜRKİYE’DE 1999-2013 VERİLERİ IŞIĞINDA BANKALARIN KALDIRAÇ ORANI, KREDİ GÖSTERGELERİ, CARİ HESAP DENGESİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME AU - GökselTiryaki Y1 - 2015 PY - 2015 N1 - doi: 10.14784/JFRS.2014117330 DO - 10.14784/JFRS.2014117330 T2 - Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 99 EP - 118 VL - 6 IS - 11 SN - 1309-1123-2529-0029 M3 - doi: 10.14784/JFRS.2014117330 UR - https://doi.org/10.14784/JFRS.2014117330 Y2 - 2022 ER -
EndNote %0 Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013) %A Göksel Tiryaki %T BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013) %D 2015 %J Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi %P 1309-1123-2529-0029 %V 6 %N 11 %R doi: 10.14784/JFRS.2014117330 %U 10.14784/JFRS.2014117330
ISNAD Tiryaki, Göksel . "BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013)". Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi 6 / 11 (Ocak 2015): 99-118 . https://doi.org/10.14784/JFRS.2014117330
AMA Tiryaki G. BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013). JFRS. 2015; 6(11): 99-118.
Vancouver Tiryaki G. BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013). Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi. 2015; 6(11): 99-118.
IEEE G. Tiryaki , "BANKING LEVERAGE, CREDIT INDICATORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN TURKEY (1999-2013)", Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, c. 6, sayı. 11, ss. 99-118, Oca. 2015, doi:10.14784/JFRS.2014117330