TÜRKİYE KONUT PİYASASINDA BALON OLUŞUMLARI: BÖLGESEL İNCELEME

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 22, 1 - 14, 01.01.2020

Vasıf Abioğlu

https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.688444

Cited By: 8

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türk konut piyasasında balon oluşumunun olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, REIDIN’den elde edilen aylık konut fiyat endeksleri ile konut kira endeksleri kullanılmakla 2007:06-2018:01 dönemi için 10 il (Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Eskişehir, İstanbul, İzmir, Kayseri, Konya ve Mersin) ve Türkiye genelinde fiyat-kira oranlarının balon içerip içermediği incelenmektedir. Tek değişkenli Phillips, Shi ve Yu (2015a) yöntemi kullanılarak elde edilen sonuçlara göre, 2010 – 2018 döneminde, Bursa ve İzmir dışında diğer tüm illerin fiyat-kira oranlarında balon oluşumları ortaya çıkmaktadır. Test sonuçlarına göre, söz konusu dönemde balon oluşumlarını en sık yaşayan şehir İstanbul olmaktadır. Ayrıca, bir yıldan uzun süren balon oluşumları İstanbul, Adana ve Mersin’de ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

fiyat-kira oranları, balon, konut fiyatları, temel değer, Türkiye konut piyaysası, GSADF, BSADF

Kaynakça

• BLANCHARD, Olivier, J. ve WATSON, Mark. (1982), “Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets”, P. Wachtel (der.), Crises in the Economic and the Financial Structure içinde, Lexington Books, Lexington, 295–315. BRUNNERMEIER, Markus, K. ve JULLIARD, Christian. (2008), “Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies”, The Review of Financial Studies, 21(1), 135–180. CAMPBELL, John, Y. ve SHILLER, Robert, J. (1987), “Cointegration and Test of Present Value Models”, Journal of Political Economy, 95(5), 1062–1088. CAMPBELL, John, Y., LO, Andrew, W. ve MACKINLAY, Craig, A. (1997), The Econometrics of Financial Markets, Princeton University Press. Princeton, N.J. CAMPBELL, Sean, D., DAVIS, Morris, A., GALLIN, Joshua. ve MARTIN, Robert, F. (2009), “What Moves Housing Markets: A Variance Decomposition of the Rent-Price Ratio”, Journal of Urban Economics, 66(2), 90–102. CASPI, Itamar. (2016), “Testing for a Housing Bubble at the National and Regional Level: The Case of Israel”, Empirical Economics, 51(2), 483-516. COCHRANE, John, H. (2001), Asset Pricing, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. COCHRANE, John, H. (2011), “Presidential Address: Discount Rates”, The Journal of Finance, 66(4), 1047-1108. COSKUN, Yener, SEVEN, Unal, ERTUGRUL, Murat H. ve ALP, Ali. (2017), “Housing Price Dynamics and Bubble Risk: The Case of Turkey”, Housing Studies, 1-37. COSKUN, Yener. ve JADEVICIUS, Arvydas. (2017), “Is There a Housing Bubble in Turkey?”, Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(1), 48–73. DIBA, Behzad, T. ve GROSSMAN, Herschel, I. (1984), “Rational Bubbles in the Price of Gold”, NBER Working Paper No. 1300. DIBA, Behzad, T. ve GROSSMAN, Herschel, I. (1988), “Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?”, American Economic Review, 78(3), 520–530. ENGSTED, Tom, ve PEDERSEN, Thomas, Q. (2015), “Predicting Returns and Rent Growth in the Housing Market using the Rent-Price Ratio: Evidence From the OECD Countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 53, 257–275. EVANS, George, W. (1991), “Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices”, American Economic Review, 81(4), 922–930. GALLIN, Joshua. (2008), “The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents”, Real Estate Economics, 36(4), 635–658. HAMILTON, Bruce, W. ve SCHWAB, Robert, M. (1985), “Expected Appreciation in Urban Housing Markets”, Journal of Urban Economics, 18(1), 103–118. HIMMELBERG, Charles, MAYER, Christopher ve SINAI, Todd. (2005), “Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4), 67–92. KIVEDAL, Bjornar, K. (2013), “Testing for Rational Bubbles in the US Housing Market”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 38, 369–381. MEESE, Richard. ve WALLACE, Nancy. (1994), “Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?”, Journal of Urban Economics, 35(3), 245–266. PAVLIDIS, Efthymios, YUSUPOVA, Alisa, PAYA, Ivan, PEEL, David, MARTINEZ-GARCIA, Enrıque, MACK, Adrienne ve GROSSMAN, Valerie. (2016), “Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun”, Journal of Real Estate finance and Economics, 53(4), 419-449. PHILLIPS, Peter, C. B., WU, Yangru ve YU, Jun. (2011), “Explosive Behavior in the 1990s NASDAQ: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?”, International Economic Review, 52(1), 201–226. PHILLIPS, Peter, C. B., SHI, Shu-Ping ve YU, Jun. (2015a), “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500”, International Economic Review, 56(4), 1043–1078. PHILLIPS, Peter, C. B., SHI, Shu-Ping ve YU, Jun. (2015b), “Supplement to Two Papers on Multiple Bubbles”, Manuscript, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, Available at: http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2015 PLAZZI, Alberto, TOROUS, Walt ve VALKANOV, Rossen. (2010), “Expected Returns and Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate”, Review of Financial Studies, 23(9), 3469–3519. SHI, Shu-Ping, VALADKHANI, Abbas, SMYTH, Russel ve VAHID Farshid. (2016), “Dating the Timeline of House Price Bubbles in Australian Capital Cities”, Economic Record, 92(299), 590-605. SHILLER, Robert, J. (1981), “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?”, American Economic Review, 71(3), 421–436. WEST, Kenneth, D. (1987), “A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(3), 553–580.