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THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND STOCK MARKET: AN APPLICATION ON TURKEY ECONOMY

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 23, 359 - 382, 31.07.2020
https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.775871

Öz

With the developing technology, use of energy and especially consumption of oil are increasing in industrialized countries. Oil use is very important for the growth of economies and development of countries. Changes in oil prices affect country economies deeply. An increase in oil prices, especially for an oil importer country, is considered as a negative indicator of that country's external balance. Thus, Turkey's economy which oil importer is also affected by changes in oil prices. In recent years, sharp increases and decreases in oil prices have attracted the attention of policy makers and macroeconomists and many researches have been made on the macroeconomic impact of oil prices. In this study, it has examined the relationship between economic growth, consumer price index, producer price index, BIST100 index and industrial firms' stocks with oil price using quarterly data for the period 2014Q1-2019Q4 in Turkey. Granger causality analysis was used in the model part of the study. As a result of the study, one-way relation was found from oil prices to economic growth, consumer price index, producer price index and industrial firms' stocks. In addition, a one-way relationship was found from BIST100 index to oil prices.

Kaynakça

  • ALPER, Deger. AYDOGAN, Ebru. OZKAN, Nesrin & KARA, Esen. (2016). The Effect of Oil Prices on Firm’s Profitability: An Application on Borsa Istanbul, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. 151-162.
  • ALTINTAS, Halil. (2013). The Relatıonshıp between Oil Prices, Export and Real Exchange Rate in Turkey: Bounds Testing Approach and Analysis of Dynamic Causality. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 9(19).
  • BALA, Umar & CHİN, Lee. (2018). Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries. Energies. 11(11).
  • BAYRAKTUTAN, Yusuf & SOLMAZ Ali Rıza, (2019). Oil Price and Inflation Relation: Panel Data Analysis For Selected Petroleum Importer Countries. KOSBED, 37, 279-291.
  • BELKAR, Rochelle. COCKERELL, Lynne & KENT, Christopher. (2007). Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers.
  • BROWN, Stephen P.A. & YUCEL, Mine K. (2002). Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: an İnterpretative Survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
  • CELİK, Tuncay & CETİN Ahmet. (2007). “Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Prices: An Empirical Application for Turkish Economy, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksek Okulu Dergisi. 10(1-2), 97-115.
  • CHOİ, Sangyup. FURCERI, Davide. LOUNGANI, Prakash. MISHRA, Saurabh & POPLAWSKI-RIBEIRO, Marcos. (2017). Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. IMF Working Paper, 55.
  • COLOGNI, Alessandro & MANERA, Matteo. (2008). Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for The G-7 Countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856–888.
  • DU, Limin. HE, Yanan & WEİ, Chu. (2010). The Relationship Between Oil Price Shocks and China’s Macro-Economy: An Empirical Analysis, Energy Policy, 38, 4141-4151.
  • FARZANEGAN, Mohammad R. & MARKWARDT, Gunther. (2009). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy. Energy Economics, 31, 134-151.
  • GHALAYİNİ, Latife. (2011). The Interaction between Oil Price and Economic Growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13, 127-141.
  • GHOSH, Sajal. (2011). Examining Crude Oil Price–Exchange Rate Nexus for India during the Period of Extreme Oil Price Volatility. Applied Energy, 88(5), 1886-1889.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • GUJARATİ, Damodar N. (2003). Basic Econometrics. McGraw Hill. Singapure.
  • HAMİLTON, James D. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
  • HAMİLTON James D. (2003). What is an Oil Shock?. Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398.
  • JAYARAMAN, Tiru &LAU, Evan (2011). Oil Price and Economic Growth in Small Pacific Island Countries. Scientific Research, 2, 153-162.
  • JBIR, Rafik & ZOUARI- GHORBEL, Sonia. (2009). Recent Oil Price Shock and Tunisian Economy. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1041–1051.
  • JIMÉNEZ-RODRIGUEZ, Rebeca & SÁNCHEZ, Marcelo. (2005). Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries, Applied Economics, 37, 201–228.
  • KEANE, Michael & PRASAD, Eswar. (1991). The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Sectoral Analysis. Institute for Emprical Macroeconomics Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department.
  • KORHONEN, Iikka & LEDYAEVA, Svetlana. (2010). Trade Linkages and Macroeconomic Effects of The Price of Oil. Energy Economics, 32(4), 848–856.
  • LEBLANC, Michael. & CHINN, Menzia D. (2004). Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation ? The Evidence from G-5 Countries. SCCIE Workıng Paper.
  • MORK, Knut A. et. al. (1994). Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries. International Association for Energy Economics, 15(4), 19-35
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar, NARAYAN, Seema & PRASAD, Arti. (2008). Understanding the Oil Price-Exchange Rate Nexus for the Fiji Islands. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2686-2696.
  • NUSAİR, Salah (2016). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economies of the Gulf Co-Operation Council Countries: Nonlinear Analysis. Energy Policy, 91, 256-267.
  • OLOMOLA, Philip A. & ADEJUMO, Akintoye V.. (2006). Oil Price Shock and Macroeconomic Activities in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 3, 28-34.
  • ONO, Shigeki. (2011). Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRIC. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 8(1), 29-45.
  • PAPAPETROU, Evangelia. (2001). Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market, Economic Activity and Employment in Greece. Energy Economics, 23, 511-532.
  • PİERCE, James L. & ENZLER, Jared J. (1974). The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks, Brookings. Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 13-61.
  • SEK, Siok Kun. TEO, Xue Qi & WONG, Yen Nee. (2015). A Comparative Study on the Effects of Oil Price Changes on Inflation. Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 630-636.
  • URI, Noel. (1996). Changing Crude Oil Price Effects on US Agricultural Employment. Energy Economics, 18, 185-202.
  • BP. (2019), BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 68th Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-oil.pdf
  • THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY(TCMB), Electronic Data Delivery System(EVDS), https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TURKEY PETROLEUM CORPORATİON(TPOA), http://www.tpao.gov.tr/

THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND STOCK MARKET: AN APPLICATION ON TURKEY ECONOMY

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 23, 359 - 382, 31.07.2020
https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.775871

Öz

With the developing technology, use of energy and especially consumption of oil are increasing in industrialized countries. Oil use is very important for the growth of economies and development of countries. Changes in oil prices affect country economies deeply. An increase in oil prices, especially for an oil importer country, is considered as a negative indicator of that country's external balance. Thus, Turkey's economy which oil importer is also affected by changes in oil prices. In recent years, sharp increases and decreases in oil prices have attracted the attention of policy makers and macroeconomists and many researches have been made on the macroeconomic impact of oil prices. In this study, it has examined the relationship between economic growth, consumer price index, producer price index, BIST100 index and industrial firms' stocks with oil price using quarterly data for the period 2014Q1-2019Q4 in Turkey. Granger causality analysis was used in the model part of the study. As a result of the study, one-way relation was found from oil prices to economic growth, consumer price index, producer price index and industrial firms' stocks. In addition, a one-way relationship was found from BIST100 index to oil prices.

Kaynakça

  • ALPER, Deger. AYDOGAN, Ebru. OZKAN, Nesrin & KARA, Esen. (2016). The Effect of Oil Prices on Firm’s Profitability: An Application on Borsa Istanbul, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. 151-162.
  • ALTINTAS, Halil. (2013). The Relatıonshıp between Oil Prices, Export and Real Exchange Rate in Turkey: Bounds Testing Approach and Analysis of Dynamic Causality. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 9(19).
  • BALA, Umar & CHİN, Lee. (2018). Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries. Energies. 11(11).
  • BAYRAKTUTAN, Yusuf & SOLMAZ Ali Rıza, (2019). Oil Price and Inflation Relation: Panel Data Analysis For Selected Petroleum Importer Countries. KOSBED, 37, 279-291.
  • BELKAR, Rochelle. COCKERELL, Lynne & KENT, Christopher. (2007). Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers.
  • BROWN, Stephen P.A. & YUCEL, Mine K. (2002). Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: an İnterpretative Survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
  • CELİK, Tuncay & CETİN Ahmet. (2007). “Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Prices: An Empirical Application for Turkish Economy, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksek Okulu Dergisi. 10(1-2), 97-115.
  • CHOİ, Sangyup. FURCERI, Davide. LOUNGANI, Prakash. MISHRA, Saurabh & POPLAWSKI-RIBEIRO, Marcos. (2017). Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. IMF Working Paper, 55.
  • COLOGNI, Alessandro & MANERA, Matteo. (2008). Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for The G-7 Countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856–888.
  • DU, Limin. HE, Yanan & WEİ, Chu. (2010). The Relationship Between Oil Price Shocks and China’s Macro-Economy: An Empirical Analysis, Energy Policy, 38, 4141-4151.
  • FARZANEGAN, Mohammad R. & MARKWARDT, Gunther. (2009). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy. Energy Economics, 31, 134-151.
  • GHALAYİNİ, Latife. (2011). The Interaction between Oil Price and Economic Growth. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 13, 127-141.
  • GHOSH, Sajal. (2011). Examining Crude Oil Price–Exchange Rate Nexus for India during the Period of Extreme Oil Price Volatility. Applied Energy, 88(5), 1886-1889.
  • GRANGER, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • GUJARATİ, Damodar N. (2003). Basic Econometrics. McGraw Hill. Singapure.
  • HAMİLTON, James D. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
  • HAMİLTON James D. (2003). What is an Oil Shock?. Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398.
  • JAYARAMAN, Tiru &LAU, Evan (2011). Oil Price and Economic Growth in Small Pacific Island Countries. Scientific Research, 2, 153-162.
  • JBIR, Rafik & ZOUARI- GHORBEL, Sonia. (2009). Recent Oil Price Shock and Tunisian Economy. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1041–1051.
  • JIMÉNEZ-RODRIGUEZ, Rebeca & SÁNCHEZ, Marcelo. (2005). Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries, Applied Economics, 37, 201–228.
  • KEANE, Michael & PRASAD, Eswar. (1991). The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Sectoral Analysis. Institute for Emprical Macroeconomics Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department.
  • KORHONEN, Iikka & LEDYAEVA, Svetlana. (2010). Trade Linkages and Macroeconomic Effects of The Price of Oil. Energy Economics, 32(4), 848–856.
  • LEBLANC, Michael. & CHINN, Menzia D. (2004). Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation ? The Evidence from G-5 Countries. SCCIE Workıng Paper.
  • MORK, Knut A. et. al. (1994). Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries. International Association for Energy Economics, 15(4), 19-35
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar, NARAYAN, Seema & PRASAD, Arti. (2008). Understanding the Oil Price-Exchange Rate Nexus for the Fiji Islands. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2686-2696.
  • NUSAİR, Salah (2016). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economies of the Gulf Co-Operation Council Countries: Nonlinear Analysis. Energy Policy, 91, 256-267.
  • OLOMOLA, Philip A. & ADEJUMO, Akintoye V.. (2006). Oil Price Shock and Macroeconomic Activities in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 3, 28-34.
  • ONO, Shigeki. (2011). Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRIC. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 8(1), 29-45.
  • PAPAPETROU, Evangelia. (2001). Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market, Economic Activity and Employment in Greece. Energy Economics, 23, 511-532.
  • PİERCE, James L. & ENZLER, Jared J. (1974). The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks, Brookings. Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 13-61.
  • SEK, Siok Kun. TEO, Xue Qi & WONG, Yen Nee. (2015). A Comparative Study on the Effects of Oil Price Changes on Inflation. Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 630-636.
  • URI, Noel. (1996). Changing Crude Oil Price Effects on US Agricultural Employment. Energy Economics, 18, 185-202.
  • BP. (2019), BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 68th Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-oil.pdf
  • THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY(TCMB), Electronic Data Delivery System(EVDS), https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/
  • TURKEY PETROLEUM CORPORATİON(TPOA), http://www.tpao.gov.tr/
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Kemal Aka Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 20 Nisan 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 23

Kaynak Göster

APA Aka, K. (2020). THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND STOCK MARKET: AN APPLICATION ON TURKEY ECONOMY. Finansal Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(23), 359-382. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.775871