BİST 100 ENDEKSİNİN DÖVİZ KURU DEĞİŞİMLERİ İLE SİMETRİK VE ASİMETRİK İLİŞKİSİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 24, 272 - 284, 31.01.2021

Selim Yıldırım Reyhan Cavadova Ethem Esen Fatih Temizel

https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.880655

Cited By: 2

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye Ekonomisinde 2009:Q1-2019:Q4 dönemi için BİST 100 endeks getirileri ile döviz kuru değişimleri arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan BİST100 ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin verileri, üç aylık verilerden oluşmaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek üzere gecikme eklemeli modeller bağlamında, simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada ilk olarak, serilerin durağan olup olmadığını veya birim köklerinin bulunup bulunmadığını belirlemek için Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller testi kullanılmıştır. Ardından da simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testi ile Türkiye’de döviz kuru-hisse senedi getirileri arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bulgular, iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin zayıf olduğunu, bununla birlikte borsadaki negatif bir gelişmenin döviz kuru artışı ile ilişkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

BİST 100, Döviz Kuru, Simetrik ve Asimetrik Granger Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

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