KREDİ ŞOKLARININ BAYESYEN VAR YÖNTEMİ İLE AYRIŞTIRILMASI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 26, 245 - 273, 31.01.2022

Alp Şerbetli Murat Akbalık

https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.1055232

Öz

Kredilerin, para politikası aktarım mekanizmasını hızlandırdığı ve etkisini büyüttüğü bir gerçektir. Fakat aktarım mekanizmasında farklı şoklar tarafından açıklanan kredilerin, aktarım mekanizmasındaki hızlandırıcı etkilerinin ötesinde olası bir “arz-talep” bulmacası sorununun var olduğunu göstermekte ve bu şokların tanımlanması para politikasının etkinliğini artırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, kredi büyümesinde etkili olan şokların tarihsel olarak ayrıştırılması ve kredi büyümesinin şoklara olan tepkileri analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada kredi piyasasına yönelen şoklar, Bayesyen VAR yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, analiz dönemi boyunca kredi arz ve talep şoklarının kredi büyümesi üzerinde oldukça etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak sermaye akımı şoklarının Türkiye Bankacılık Sektörü kredi büyümesinde belirleyici diğer bir baskın faktör olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması, Kredi Görüşü, Bayesyen VAR

Kaynakça

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