REGIONAL DOLLARIZATION DIFFERENCES AND DETERMINANTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 57, 295 - 315, 30.01.2022

Ramazan Aktaş , Ümit Aydınlık

https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.1010252

Cited By: 3

Öz

This study investigates the determinants of deposit dollarization within 81 cities of Turkey for the period of 2007:Q4 – 2019:Q1. Within this scope, exchange rate, CDS premiums, city inflation, city export and import are used to model deposit dollarization. As an econometric approach both fixed and random effect panel data methods are implemented using relevant libraries in Python programming language to measure the impact of independent variables. As a result, all independent variables have statistically significant and positive effect on deposit dollarization within cities. When evaluated according to the effect sizes, inflation, import, export, exchange rate and CDS premiums are considered to be determinant, respectively, on deposit dollarization in Turkish cities. On the other hand, when the two models are tested with the Hausman test, which has a null hypothesis “random effect estimator is true”, it is concluded that the random effect model is more suitable for our model. In addition, to see if citizens living abroad that have registered in the cities have an impact on the dollarization, Pearson correlation is conducted and it is found that there is relatively strong correlation between the number of expatriate citizens and deposit dollarization in the city.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dollarization, Panel Data, Regional Analysis, City-level Analysis

BÖLGESEL DOLARİZASYON FARKLILIKLARI VE BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu makale Türkiye’nin 81 ilindeki 2007:Q4 ve 2019:Q1 dönemi mevduat dolarizasyonunun belirleyicilerini konu edinmekte olup, bu kapsamda mevduat dolarizasyonunu döviz kuru, CDS primleri, il enflasyonu, il ihracatı ve il ithalatının bir fonksiyonu olarak ele almaktadır. Ekonometrik model olarak panel veri analiz yöntemlerinden sabit etkili (fixed effect) model ile rassal (random) etkili modelin Python programlama dilinde ilgili kütüphaneleri kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada, öncelikle tüm bağımsız değişkenlerinin dolarizasyon üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir biçimde ve pozitif bir ilişkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Etki büyüklüklerine göre değerlendirildiğinde ise, sırasıyla, enflasyon, ithalat, ihracat, döviz kuru ve CDS primlerinin illerdeki mevduat dolarizasyonu üzerinde belirleyici olduğu değerlendirilmektedir. Diğer taraftan, sıfır (null) hipotezi “rassal etkili model (random effect) tahmincisi doğrudur” olan Hausman testi ile iki model sınandığında, modelimiz için rassal (random) etkili modelin daha uygun olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, yurtdışında yaşayan gurbetçi vatandaşların illerdeki dolarizasyon üzerinde bir etkisi olup olmadığına bakmak için sabit (fixed) etkili modelde her bir il için hesaplanan sabit terim ile il nüfusuna kayıtlı gurbetçi vatandaşlar (Türkiye Cumhuriyeti vatandaşı olup yurtdışında ikamet eden) arasında nispeten güçlü sayılabilecek bir korelasyon bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dolarizasyon, Panel Veri, Bölgesel Analiz, İl Analiz

Kaynakça

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