NAKİT ESASLI MUHASEBE BİLGİLERİ İLE İFLAS RİSKİ İLİŞKİNİN İNCELENMESİ: HALKA AÇIK FİRMALAR ÜZERİNE ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2022, , 71 - 85, 30.06.2022

Türker Açıkgöz

https://doi.org/10.31460/mbdd.1056741

Öz

Bu araştırmada Borsa İstanbul’da pay senetleri işlem gören finans sektörü dışı firmalar üzerinde nakit esaslı muhasebe bilgilerinin iflas riskini ne derecede açıklayabildiği incelenmiştir. Araştırmada firmaların iflas riskini ölçmek için Altman Z, Springate ve Zmijewski modelleri kullanılmış olup bu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlar bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Bağımsız değişkenler olarak ise firmaların nakit akış bilgileri ve kontrol değişkenleri olarak firma boyutu ile yaşı kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın sonucunda nakit esaslı muhasebe bilgilerinin firmaların iflas riski skorlarını açıklamada yetersiz sonuç verdiği görülmüştür. Bu durumun sebebinin yazında kullanılan iflas riski ölçme modellerinin tahakkuk esaslı muhasebe bilgilerini temel alması, dolayısıyla çağdaş muhasebe bakış açısıyla günümüzde anlamlılığını yitirmiş olabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nakit Esaslı Muhasebe Bilgileri, İflas Riski, TMS-7, Nakit akış tablosu

CASH-BASED ACCOUNTING INFORMATION IN PREDICTING BANKRUPTCY RISK: EVIDENCE FROM LISTED TURKISH FIRMS

Öz

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between cash-based accounting information and bankruptcy risk with a sample of listed non-financial Turkish Firms. For this purpose, we used Altman Z, Springate, and Zmijewski models for estimation of bankruptcy risk. These model scores are given as dependent variables whereas cash flow information; operating, investing, financing cash flows, and cash flow patterns, and as control variables; firm size and firm age are utilized as independent variables to investigate this relationship. The empirical results showed that cash-based accounting information is unable to explain variation in bankruptcy risk of listed non-financial Turkish firms. On these results, it is thought that the reason for this situation may be that the bankruptcy risk measurement models used in the literature are based on accrual-based accounting information, so they may have lost their meaning from a contemporary accounting point of view.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cash-Based Accounting Information, Bankruptcy Risk, IAS-7, Statement of Cash Flows

Kaynakça

• Altman, E, (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
• Altman, E. (1993). Corporate financial distress and bankruptcy (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118267806
• Arlov, O., Rankov, S., & Kotlica, S, (2013). Cash flow in predicting financial distress and bankruptcy. Advances in environmental science and energy planning, 42(2/3), 421-441.
• Bruwer, S., & Hamman, W.D. (2005). Cash Flow Patterns in Listed South African Industrial Companies. Meditari Accountancy Research, 13(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1108/10222529200500001
• Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash Flow Patterns as A Proxy For Firm Life Cycle. The Accounting Review, 86(6), 1969-994. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-10130
• Gentry, J. A., Newbold, P., & Whitford, D. T. (1990). Profiles of cash flow components. Financial Analysts Journal, 46(4), 41-48. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v46.n4.41
• Giarto, R. V. D., & Fachrurrozie, F. (2020). The Effect of Leverage, Sales Growth, Cash Flow on Financial Distress with Corporate Governance as a Moderating Variable. Accounting Analysis Journal, 9(1), 15-21. https://doi.org/10.15294/aaj.v9i1.31022
• Gup, B.E., Samson, W.D., Dugan, M.T., Kim, M.J., & Jittrapanun, T. (1993). An Analysis of Patterns from the Statement of Cash Flows. Financial Practice and Education, 3(2), 73- 79.
• Kamaluddin, A., Ishak, N., & Mohammed, N. F. (2019). Financial distress prediction through cash flow ratios analysis. International Journal of Financial Research, 10(3), 63-76. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v10n3p63
• Kordestani, G., Bakhtiari, M., & Biglari, V. (2011). Ability of combinations of cash flow components to predict financial distress. Business: Theory and practice, 12(3), 277-285. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2011.28
• Zmijewski, M. E. (1984). Methodological issues related to the estimation of financial distress prediction models. Journal of Accounting research, (22), 59-82. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490859
• Sayari, N., & Mugan, C. S. (2013). Cash flow statement as an evidence for financial distress. Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance, 1(3), 95-103. https://doi.org/10.13189/ujaf.2013.010302
• Springate, G. L. (1978). Predicting the possibility of failure in a Canadian firm: A discriminant analysis [Doctoral dissertation, Simon Fraser University].
• Ward, T. J., & Foster, B. P. (1997). A note on selecting a response measure for financial distress. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 24(6), 869-879. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5957.00138