ISTANBUL KONUT FİYATLARININ YAPAY ZEKA İLE TAHMİNLEMESİ: ARIMA VE LSTM KARŞILAŞTIRMASI

Öz

Türkiye’de hane halkları, son yıllarda yüksek enflasyon nedeniyle yüksek konut fiyatlarıyla mücadele etmekte ve fiyat tahmini tekniklerinin konut yatırımı kararlarında yardımcı olabileceği düşünülmektedir. Bu çalışma, İstanbul konut fiyatlarını bir ekonometrik model olan ARIMA ve bir makine öğrenimi algoritması olan LSTM’yi karşılaştırarak tahminlemektedir. Ilk aşamada, yalnızca Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'nın üç aylık ortalama konut birim fiyatları kullanılmıştır. İkinci aşamada modellere iki makroekonomik değişken, konut kredi faiz oranları ve enflasyon oranları (TÜFE) eklenmiştir. Analiz Sonuçlar, LSTM modelinden alınan tahminlerin ARIMA yaklaşımına göre daha başarılı olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu araştırma, yapay zekâ uygulamalarının sınırlı olduğu konut sektöründe önemli bir boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARIMA
• LSTM
• Yapay Zekâ
• Konut Fiyat Tahminlemesi
• Makine Öğrenmesi

PREDICTING HOUSING PRICES IN ISTANBUL USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ARIMA AND LSTM MODELS

Öz

Due to high inflation, Türkiye has been struggling with high housing prices. This study compares two forecasting models: an econometric time-series model, ARIMA, and a machine learning algorithm, LSTM, in predicting housing prices in Istanbul. First, only the Central Bank’s quarterly average housing unit prices are used in both models. Second, two crucial macroeconomic variables, the mortgage loan interest rate and the inflation rate (as measured by the CPI), are added to the model. The results reveal that the forecast obtained from LSTM outperforms the ARIMA approach. This research fills a significant gap in the literature where the implementation of artificial intelligence in the housing industry is limited.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARIMA
• LSTM
• Artificial Intelligence
• Housing Price Predictions
• Machine Learning

Kaynakça

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