Crises, Tourism and Chaos Theory: Resilience Strategies in Tourism

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 1025 - 1048, 27.12.2025

Özlem Erdoğan , Talha Aksoy , Mehtap Özenen Kavlak , Cemre Korkmaz , Taki Can Metin , Halil Duymuş , Alper Çabuk , Emine Günok , Mustafa Cevdet Altunel , Basak Siklar

Abstract

This study uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze tourism mobility in 11 provinces of southeastern Türkiye between 2017 and 2023. It examines the spatial-temporal impacts of the February 6, 2023 earthquakes and the COVID-19 pandemic. While the pandemic abruptly halted tourism globally, the earthquakes caused severe regional losses, with varied recovery patterns. Through the lens of Chaos Theory’s “butterfly effect,” the study assesses fluctuations in tourism. During the pandemic, tourism declined by 40–50%, with signs of recovery in 2021–2022. The 2023 earthquakes led to significant drops in Hatay, Malatya, and Kahramanmaraş, whereas Adana and Gaziantep recovered faster. Findings highlight the non-linear, spatially diverse nature of tourism’s response to crises and emphasize the need for sustainable, proactive resilience strategies.

Keywords

Tourism , crisis management , chaos theory , covid-19 , earthquake

Ethical Statement

The article complies with national and international research and publication ethics. Ethics committee approval was not required for the study.

Krizler, Turizm ve Kaos Teorisi: Turizmde Dayanıklılık Stratejileri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2017–2023 yılları arasında Türkiye'nin güneydoğusundaki 11 ilde turizm hareketliliğini Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) ile analiz etmektedir. Araştırma, 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri ile COVID-19 pandemisinin turizm üzerindeki mekânsal ve zamansal etkilerini incelemektedir. Pandemi küresel ölçekte turizmi durdururken, depremler bölgesel kayıplara yol açmıştır. Kaos Teorisi’nin "kelebek etkisi" çerçevesinde turizmdeki dalgalanmalar değerlendirilmiştir. Pandemide turizm %40–50 oranında düşmüş, 2021–2022’de toparlanma gözlenmiştir. 2023 depremleri Hatay, Malatya ve Kahramanmaraş’ta ciddi düşüşe neden olmuş; Adana ve Gaziantep daha hızlı toparlanmıştır. Bulgular, krizler karşısında turizmin doğrusal olmayan ve mekânsal olarak farklılaşan bir yapıya sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Turizm , kriz yönetimi , kaos teorisi , covid-19 , deprem

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