Exchange rate elasticity of exports and firm heterogeneity: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing firms

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 52 Sayı: 2, 265 - 288, 30.12.2025

Ugur Aytun , Yılmaz Kılıçaslan , Oytun Meçik , Ünal Töngür

Öz

In recent years, exchange rate volatility has sparked debates about what constitutes a competitive exchange rate. This study aims to determine the exchange rate elasticity of exports for Turkish manufacturing firms and examine the extent to which firm heterogeneity influences this response. Utilizing a high-definition fixed effects model at the firm-product-destination level, the study analyzes the interaction between exchange rate elasticity and total factor productivity. The findings indicate that firms with higher total factor productivity are more likely to increase their prices in response to exchange rate changes. Additionally, the responses are found to be asymmetrical, with firms showing greater sensitivity to exchange rate depreciation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye , manufacturing industry , service sector , competitiveness , productivity , Türkiye , trade

İhracatın döviz kuru esnekliği ve firma heterojenitesi: Türkiye imalat sanayii firmalarından kanıtlar

Öz

Son yıllarda döviz kurundaki ciddi dalgalanmalar, cari açık veren gelişmekte olan ülkelerde rekabetçi döviz kurunun ne olması gerektiği sorusunu gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’deki imalat sanayii ihracatçılarının döviz kurundaki değişimlere ne kadar duyarlı olduğunu ve firma heterojenitesinin bu tepkide ne derece önemli olduğunu belirlemektir. Bu çerçevede, Türkiye ihracatının döviz kuruna duyarlılığı ve toplam faktör verimliliği cinsinden farklılaşan firmaların bu duyarlılıktaki etkileşimi, firma-ürün-destinasyon düzeyindeki çok boyutlu sabit etkiler regresyon modelinden yararlanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Buna göre, yüksek verimlilikteki firmaların nispeten uzman oldukları ürünlerde döviz kuru değişimlerine karşı fiyatlarını artırma gücüne sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca döviz kurundaki farklı yönlerdeki dalgalanmaların simetrik olmadığı, kur yükselişlerine karşı firmaların daha duyarlı davrandığı gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış ticaret , imalat sanayi , hizmet sektörü , rekabetçilik , verimlilik , Türkiye

Kaynakça

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