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A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001

Cilt: 52 Sayı: 2 30 Aralık 2025
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A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001

Öz

We investigate whether the pattern of Turkish trade has a persistent nature or is dynamic, by considering 5-digit, Rev.3 trade data for the period 1969-2001 and assessing the performance of sectors as to whether their distribution between sectors which are in surplus, in balance or in deficit, have shown persistence over time. As a continuation of previous research we investigate the long run behavior of the trade patterns of each 5-digit sector so as to obtain information of their behavior between the beginning of the sample period and its ending. This allows us to also pinpoint those sectors that have exhibited dynamic behavior during the period under study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

trade pattern, persistence, dynamic, unit roots

Kaynakça

  1. References
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  3. CAROLAN, T., SINGH, N. and TALATI, C. (1998), “The Composition of U.S.-East Asia Trade and Changing Comparative Advantage”, Journal of Development Economics, 57(2), 361-389.
  4. CAROLAN, T., MORA, J. and SINGH, N. (2013), “Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992”, Millennial Asia, 4(1), 87-108.
  5. CARTER, C. A. and LI, X.(2002), “Implications of World Trade Organization Accession for China’s Agricultural Trade Patterns”, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 46(2), 193-207.
  6. CARTER, C.A. and LI, X. (2004), “Changing Trade Patterns in Major OECD Countries”, Applied Economics, 36(14), 1501-1511.
  7. CHEUNG, Y. W. and CHINN, M. D. (1996), “Deterministic, Stochastic and Segmened Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis”, Oxford Economic Papers, 48(1), 134-162.
  8. ERLAT, G. and ERLAT, H. (2012), “Measuring the Persistence in Trade Patterns: The Case for Turkey”, Applied Economics Letters, 19(14), 1339-1348.
  9. ERLAT, G. and ERLAT, H. (2009), “Measuring the Persistence in Trade Patterns: The Case for Turkey”, Working Paper, Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University.
  10. GAGNON, J.E. and ROSE, A.K. (1995), “Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive is the Product Cycle?”, Oxford Economic Papers, 47(8), 229-248.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Erlat, H. (2025). A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 52(2), 239-263. https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v52i2.1
AMA
1.Erlat H. A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi. 2025;52(2):239-263. doi:10.60165/metusd.v52i2.1
Chicago
Erlat, Haluk. 2025. “A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001”. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi 52 (2): 239-63. https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v52i2.1.
EndNote
Erlat H (01 Aralık 2025) A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi 52 2 239–263.
IEEE
[1]H. Erlat, “A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, c. 52, sy 2, ss. 239–263, Ara. 2025, doi: 10.60165/metusd.v52i2.1.
ISNAD
Erlat, Haluk. “A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001”. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi 52/2 (01 Aralık 2025): 239-263. https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v52i2.1.
JAMA
1.Erlat H. A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi. 2025;52:239–263.
MLA
Erlat, Haluk. “A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001”. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, c. 52, sy 2, Aralık 2025, ss. 239-63, doi:10.60165/metusd.v52i2.1.
Vancouver
1.Haluk Erlat. A time series analysis of Turkish trade patterns at the sector level, 1969-2001. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi. 01 Aralık 2025;52(2):239-63. doi:10.60165/metusd.v52i2.1