Küresel Şoklar, Yeşil Politikalar ve Türkiye’nin Çelik Ticaretinde Refah Mantığı

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 52 Sayı: 2, 339 - 373, 30.12.2025

Ayça Tekin Koru , Nazire Nergiz Dinçer

Öz

Bu çalışma, dış ticaretin siyasal ekonomisini yirmi birinci yüzyılda yeniden şekillendiren çağdaş küresel kırılmaların ışığında, klasik “ticaret yaratma” ve “ticaret saptırma” kavramlarını yeniden ele almaktadır. Odak noktası, korumacılık, jeopolitik rekabet ve karbon azaltımının en görünür biçimde kesiştiği küresel çelik ekonomisidir. Türkiye’nin bu alandaki konumu, orta ölçekli ve dış ticarete bağımlı ekonomilerin karşı karşıya kaldığı ikilemleri açığa çıkarmaktadır. Çalışmadaki tartışma, günümüzde refahın artık geleneksel fiyat ve gümrük tarifesi yapıları kadar karbon performansı ve uyum kapasitesine de bağlı hale geldiğini göstererek, ticaret politikası, iklim yönetişimi ve dağılımsal sonuçları birbirine bağlayan yeni bir araştırma kuşağına ihtiyaç olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu makale nicel tahminler sunmaktan ziyade düşünsel bir sorgulama başlatmayı amaçlamaktadır: İklim kısıtları altında refah nasıl yeniden tanımlanabilir? Karbon, rekabetin yeni para birimi haline geldiğinde, ekonomik bütünleşme hâlâ ortak refahın kaynağı olabilir mi? Bunlar bugün Güzin Erlat’ın da sorabileceği — ve artık öğrencilerinin yanıtlaması gereken — sorulardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küresel ticaret , çelik sektörü , korumacılık , iklim politikası , refah , rekabetçilik , Türkiye

Global shocks, green policy, and the welfare logic of Türkiye’s steel trade

Öz

This paper revisits the classical concepts of trade creation and trade diversion through the lens of contemporary global disruptions that are reshaping the political economy of trade in the twenty-first century. The focus is on the global steel economy—an arena where protectionism, geopolitical rivalry, and decarbonization collide most visibly, and where Türkiye’s position reveals the dilemmas faced by mid-sized, trade-dependent economies. The discussion in this paper traces how welfare today depends as much on carbon performance and adaptive capacity as on traditional price and tariff structures, calling for a new generation of research that links trade policy, climate governance, and distributional outcomes. Rather than offering formal estimation, this paper seeks to provoke inquiry: How can welfare be redefined under climate constraints? Can integration remain a source of collective prosperity when carbon becomes the new currency of competitiveness? These are the questions Güzin Erlat might ask today—and the ones her students must now answer.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global trade , steel industry , protectionism , climate policy , welfare , competitiveness , Türkiye

Kaynakça

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