Birleşik Krallık’ın Çin ile Dönüşen Siyasal İlişkileri ve Değişimin Temel Dinamikleri (2013-2023)

Öz

Bu çalışma Birleşik Krallık'ın Çin ile olan siyasi ilişkilerini incelemektedir. Bir dönem ikili ilişkilerin Altın Çağ’ını yaşadığı iddia edilmekteydi. Ancak, bu yüksek düzeyli söylemlerden sadece birkaç yıl sonra, ilişkiler olumsuz yönde önemli bir değişim geçirmiş ve bu değişim günümüze kadar gide-rek kötüleşen bir şekilde devam etmiştir. Bu makalenin temel odak noktası, 2013-2023 yılları arasındaki süreçte ilişkilerin geçirdiği dönüşümdür. Çalışma, Birleşik Krallık'ın yükselen bir büyük güç olan Çin karşısındaki siyasi/diplomatik konumlanışını daha iyi anlamak için söz konusu yıllardaki ilişkilerin sistematik bir anlatısını sunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Girişten sonraki ilk bölümde, Altın Çağ olarak adlandırılan dönemin ortaya çıkışı ve evrimi ile birlikte söz konusu dönüşümün ilk işaretleri ele alınmaktadır. Sonrasında, Çin'in yurtiçi ve yurtdışındaki agresif uygulamaları ve Birleşik Krallık içinde Çin'le bağlantılı olduğu iddia edilen nüfuz ve casusluk faaliyetleri etrafında dönen temel siyasi meselelere değinilmektedir. Son olarak, Birleşik Krallık'ın Çin ile yaşadığı siyasi sorunlarla ilgili olarak uygulamaya koyduğu yeni koruyucu önlemler tartışılmaktadır. Sonuç bölümünde ise çalışmadaki temel bulgular Birleşik Krallık'ın Çin ile siyasi ilişkilerindeki mevcut gidişatı daha anlaşılır kılmayı hedefleyen bir yaklaşımla tartışılıp özetlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Birleşik Krallık Dış Politikası
• İngiltere Dış Politikası
• Çin Dış Politikası
• İngiltere Çin İlişkileri
• Altın Çağ

The Determinants of the UK’s Shifting Political Relations with China (2013-2023)

Abstract

This study examines the United Kingdom’s political relations with China. The bilateral affairs between the two were once claimed to have entered a golden era. However, just a few years after this promotion, the relations underwent a significant negative shift which has lasted in an increasingly worsening fashion until current times. The key focus of this paper is on the evolution of the relationship during the period between 2013 and 2023. Its primary objective is to provide a structured account of the relationship in the years covered there to understand better the UK’s political/diplomatic position on China, a rising major power. In the first part after the introduction, the emergence and evolution of the socalled Golden Era along with the earlier signs of its transformation are offered. Later, the key political issues revolving around both China's aggression at home and abroad, and China-related influence and espionage efforts inside the UK are discussed. Lastly, the UK’s new protective measures implemented in relation to the political issues it has had with China are discussed. In the conclusion, key findings are presented to make the current tide of the UK’s political relations with China more comprehensible.

Keywords

• United Kingdom Foreign Policy
• British Foreign Policy
• Chinese Foreign Poli-cy
• UK – China Relations
• Golden Era

Kaynakça

1. BBC. ‘China Denounces G7 after Statement on Xinjiang and Hong Kong’ (2021). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57466576
2. Boffey, Daniel. ‘Theresa May “Raised Objections to Project as Home Secretary”’. The Observer (2016), sec. UK news. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/30/theresa-may-delayed-hinkley-point-chinese- beijing-vince-cable
3. Bray, Chad. ‘Britain and Japan to Sign Major Defence Pact as UK Expands Focus on Indo-Pacific | South China Morning Post’. SCMP (2023a). https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3206333/britain-and- japan-sign-major-defence-pact-uk-expands-focus-indo-pacific
4. Bray, Chad. ‘UK to Bolster Military Spending by US$6 Billion, Introduce Measures to Counter China | South China Morning Post’. SCMP (2023b). https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3213284/uk- bolster-military-spending-us6-billion-introduce-measures-counter-china
5. Brooke-Holland, Lousia. ‘AUKUS Pillar 2: Advanced Military Capabilities’. House of Commons Library. 2024. Accessed 8 July 2024. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9842/CBP-9842.pdf
6. Brown, Scott A. W. ‘Free Trade, Yes; Ideology, Not So Much: The UK’s Shifting China Policy 2010-16’. British Journal of Chinese Studies 8/1 (3 April 2019), 92–126. https://doi.org/10.51661/bjocs.v8i1.21
7. Buckley, Chris - Castle, Stephen. ‘As Theresa May Pursues Deals in China, Her Own Troubles Follow’. The New York Times (2018), sec. World. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/world/asia/theresa-may-china.html
8. Collier, David. ‘Understanding Process Tracing’. PS: Political Science & Politics 44/4 (October 2011), 823–830. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096511001429

9. Commons Library. ‘UK-China Relations: A Timeline’. 2020. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8988/CBP-8988.pdf
10. Commons Library. ‘UK-Japan Defence Agreement 2023’. 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9704/
11. Corera, Gordon. ‘China: MI5 and FBI Heads Warn of “Immense” Threat’ (2022a). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-62064506
12. Corera, Gordon. ‘Why Did MI5 Name Christine Lee as an “Agent of Influence”?’ 2022b. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62179004
13. Crabtree, James. ‘Boris Johnson’s Remarkable U-Turn From Sinophile to China Hawk’. Foreign Policy. 2020. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/03/boris-johnson-sinophile-china-hawk/
14. Deng, Jia. ‘AUKUS: Why Beijing Didn’t Go Ballistic | Lowy Institute’. The Lowy Institute. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/aukus-why-beijing-didn-t-go-ballistic
15. Elgot, Jessica. ‘Theresa May’s China Visit Offers Little to Silence Critics at Home’. The Guardian (2018), sec. Politics. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/02/theresa-may-china-visit-little-silence-critics- home
16. FCDO. ‘UK Announces Increased Funding for China Capabilities Programme’. GOV.UK. 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-increased-funding-for-china- capabilities-programme
17. Fisher, Lucy et al. ‘Arrest of Alleged Spy Raises Questions around UK’s China Policy | Fin…’. Financial Times. 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.ft.com/content/cec7e1fa-4d79-4cb6-8a64-19af7f6d7a38
18. Fisher, Lucy - Pickard, Jim. ‘Sunak Accuses China of Interfering in UK “Parliamentary Democracy” | …’. Financial Times. 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.ft.com/content/a3b91122-3881-4a15-8f13- cb21efae8df4
19. Fleming, Jeremy. ‘RUSI Annual Security Lecture 2022’. 2022. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.gchq.gov.uk/speech/rusi-asl
20. Foreign and Commonwealth Office. ‘Joint Statement on Human Rights Violations and Abuses in Xinjiang’. GOV.UK. 2019. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/joint-statement-on- xinjiang
21. Gallardo, Cristina. ‘Cold War with China Would “Betray” Britain’s National Interests, UK Foreign Secretary Warns’. POLITICO. 24 April 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/cold-war-with- china-would-betray-britains-interests-uk-minister-warns/
22. Gallardo, Cristina. ‘UK Lawmakers Declare China’s Treatment of Uyghurs “Genocide”’. POLITICO. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-lawmakers-declare-china-treatment-of- uyghurs-genocide/
23. Gani, Aisha. ‘Xi Jinping Signs Nuclear Deal as UK and China Clinch £40bn of Contracts’. The Guardian (2015), sec. World news. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/21/xi-jinping-poised-to-sign-nuclear-deal- as-uk-seeks-to-clinch-30bn-of-contracts
24. Gardner, Frank. ‘China Warns UK as Carrier Strike Group Approaches’. BBC. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58015367
25. Garnett, Mark et al. British Foreign Policy since 1945. London: Routledge, 2018. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315743394
26. Germond, Basil. ‘AUKUS: The Realisation of “Global Maritime Britain”’. Council on Geostrategy. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world/aukus-the-realisation-of-global-maritime- britain/
27. Gibbons, Amy. ‘MPs Call for China to Be Officially Deemed a “Threat” to UK’. Yahoo Finance. 2022. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/mps-call-china-officially-deemed-000100001.html
28. Girard, Bonnie. ‘China’s AUKUS Response Highlights Beijing’s Bunker Mentality’. The Diplomat. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/chinas-aukus-response-highlights-beijings-bunker- mentality/
29. GOV.UK. ‘Types of British Nationality’. GOV.UK. n.d. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.gov.uk/types-of- british-nationality/british-national-overseas
30. Hale, Erin. ‘Hong Kong: China Will No Longer Recognise British National Overseas Citizens’. The Guardian (2021), sec. World news. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/29/britain-launches-visa-scheme- for-hong-kong-citizens
31. Hawkins, Amy. ‘China Accuses UK of Protecting “Fugitives” after Bounty Put on Hong Kong Democracy Activists’. The Guardian (2023), sec. World news. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/04/hong- kong-activists-china-uk-protecting-fugitives-national-security-law
32. HM Government. ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy’. GOV.UK. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-britain-in-a-competitive-age-the-integrated- review-of-security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy/global-britain-in-a-competitive-age-the- integrated-review-of-security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy
33. HM Government. ‘Integrated Review Refresh 2023: Responding to a More Contested and Volatile World’. GOV.UK. 2023. Accessed 23 June 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/integrated-review- refresh-2023-responding-to-a-more-contested-and-volatile-world
34. HM Treasury. ‘UK Signs Founding Articles of Agreement of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’. GOV.UK. 2015. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-signs-founding-articles-of- agreement-of-the-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank
35. Home Office. ‘Media Factsheet: Hong Kong BN(O) Visa Route – Home Office in the Media’. 2022. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://homeofficemedia.blog.gov.uk/2022/02/24/media-factsheet-hong-kong-bnos/
36. Hui, Zhang - Yusha, Zhao. ‘UK Tilting toward Indo-Pacific to Counterweight China “Immature” Decision - Global Times’. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1218586.shtml
37. ISCP. ‘Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament China’. https://isc.independent.gov.uk/wp- content/uploads/2023/07/ISC-China.pdf
38. Lam, Jeffie - Kang-chung, Ng. ‘Beijing Hits Back at Britain over Hong Kong Report, Calls It “Waste Paper”’. South China Morning Post. 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong- kong/politics/article/3206623/britain-intends-work-constructively-hong-kong-leader-says-national- security-law-seeps-all-aspects
39. Landale, James. ‘China’s Ambassador Zheng Zeguang Banned from UK Parliament’ (2021). https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-58556460
40. Lau, Stuart. ‘UK Parliament Calls Taiwan “Independent Country” as Cleverly Visits China’. POLITICO (2023). https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-parliament-calls-taiwan-independent-country-report-says-james- cleverly-visit-china/
41. Lau, Stuart - Gallardo, Cristina. ‘6 Chinese Diplomats Leave UK after Alleged Assault’. POLITICO. 2022. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/united-kingdom-chines-diplomats-assault/
42. Leoni, Zeno. ‘The End of the “Golden Era”? The Conundrum of Britain’s China Policy Amidst Sino-American Relations’. Journal of Current Chinese Affairs 51/2 (2022), 313–326.
43. Macaskill, Andrew. ‘Britain’s MI5 Spy Service Warns Lawmakers over Chinese Agent of Influence’. Reuters (2022), sec. United Kingdom. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-politicians-be-warned-chinese-spying- threat-sun-2022-01-13/
44. Macaskill, Andrew. ‘UK Warns China Secrecy over Military Expansion Risks “Tragic Miscalculation”’. Reuters (2023), sec. China. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/uk-warns-china-secrecy-over-military- expansion-risks-tragic-miscalculation-2023-04-24/
45. Mason, Chris. ‘Rishi Sunak: Golden Era of UK-China Relations Is Over’ (2022). https://www.bbc.com/news/uk- politics-63787877
46. McDonell, Stephen et al. ‘Disengaging with China Not Credible, Says James Cleverly’. 2023. Accessed 23 June 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-66656443
47. Mctague, Tom. ‘“Auntie May” Lost in China’. POLITICO. 2018. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/auntie-theresa-may-lost-in-china/
48. Ministry of Defence. ‘Industry Security Notice (ISN) - The National Security Act 2023’. GOV.UK. 2024. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/661f87aa0a82cd0985bd3d29/ISN_2024- 03_National_Security_Act_2023.pdf
49. Oakeshott, Isabel - Grimston, Jack. ‘Cabinet Split over Bullying by Beijing’. 2013. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.thetimes.com/article/cabinet-split-over-bullying-by-beijing-x2r2c59zwzn
50. Obermann, Magnus. ‘Shifting the Post-Brexit Alliances? Britain’s China Policy between American Fervour, European Ambiguity, and Global British Ambition’.
51. Parker, George - Cameron-Chileshe, Jasmine. ‘Public Bonhomie, China Nuance and Brexit Bickering Filled G7 Menu’. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.ft.com/content/44404717-8c97-49d7-b157-0929d9f76f03
52. Ramzy, Austin - Buckley, Chris. ‘“Absolutely No Mercy”: Leaked Files Expose How China Organized Mass Detentions of Muslims’. The New York Times (2019), sec. World. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/world/asia/china-xinjiang-documents.html
53. Reuters. ‘Britain Says China Has Closed Unofficial Police Stations in UK’. Reuters (2023a), sec. United Kingdom. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-says-china-has-closed-unofficial-police-stations-uk-2023-06- 06/
54. Reuters. ‘China “deplores” UK Security Minister’s Taiwan Meeting’. Reuters. 2023b. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-deplores-uk-security-ministers-meeting-with- taiwanese-minister-2023-06-18/
55. Rogers, James. ‘AUKUS: Strategic Drivers and Geopolitical Implications – Britain’s World’. Council on Geostrategy. 2022. Accessed 8 July 2024. https://www.geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world/aukus-strategic- drivers-and-geopolitical-implications/
56. Royal Navy. ‘Carrier Strike Group Deployment to Visit 40 Countries’. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2021/april/26/210426-csg21-deployment
57. Sabbagh, Dan. ‘50 Chinese Students Leave UK in Three Years after Spy Chiefs’ Warning’. The Guardian (2022), sec. World news. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/06/50-chinese-students-leave-uk-in- three-years-after-spy-chiefs-warning
58. Stewart, Phil. ‘China Is Now Top Priority for British Intelligence, Spy Chief Says’. Reuters (2022), sec. World. https://www.reuters.com/world/china-is-now-top-priority-british-intelligence-spy-chief-says-2022-07-21/
59. Submarine Delivery Agency. ‘British-Led Design Chosen for AUKUS Submarine Project’. GOV.UK. 2023. Accessed 8 July 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/british-led-design-chosen-for-aukus- submarine-project
60. The Economist. ‘An Interview with George Osborne’. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/bagehots- notebook/2015/09/24/an-interview-with-george-osborne
61. The Economist. ‘The Osborne Doctrine’. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/britain/2015/09/26/the- osborne-doctrine
62. The Guardian. ‘Biden and Sunak Vow to Support Ukraine and Counter China in First Call’. The Guardian (2022), sec. Politics. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/26/biden-and-sunak-vow-to- support-ukraine-and-counter-china-in-first-call
63. The Guardian. ‘China Unhappy at Cameron’s Meeting with Dalai Lama’. The Guardian (2012), sec. World news. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/may/15/china-unhappy-cameron-dalai-lama
64. The Week. ‘China Applauds “Auntie” Theresa May for Sidestepping Human Rights Issue’. theweek. 2018. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://theweek.com/91374/china-applauds-auntie-theresa-may-for- sidestepping-human-rights-issue
65. VOA. ‘UK’s Sunak Vows to Get Tough on China If He Becomes Prime Minister’. Voice of America. 2022. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.voanews.com/a/uk-sunak-vows-to-get-tough-on-china-if-he- becomes-prime-minister/6671957.html
66. Volz, Dustin. ‘Chinese Tech Threatens Future Global Security, U.K. Spy Chief Warns’. Wall Street Journal (2022), sec. World. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-tech-threatens-future-global-security-warns-u-k-spy- chief-11665502252
67. Weidenfeld, Jan. ‘In China, Theresa May’s “Global Britain” Had a Date with Reality | Merics’. 2018. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://merics.org/en/comment/china-theresa-mays-global-britain-had-date-reality
68. Wintour, Patrick. ‘China Imposes Sanctions on UK MPs, Lawyers and Academic in Xinjiang Row’. The Guardian. 2021b. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/26/china-sanctions-uk- businesses-mps-and-lawyers-in-xinjiang-row
69. Wintour, Patrick. ‘US and Canada Follow EU and UK in Sanctioning Chinese Officials over Xinjiang’. The Guardian. 2021a. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/22/china- responds-to-eu-uk-sanctions-over-uighurs-human-rights
70. Wintour, Patrick - Sabbagh, Dan. ‘China Is Major Threat, but UK Will Keep up Trade Links, Says Defence Review’. The Guardian (2021), sec. Politics. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/16/china-is- major-threat-but-uk-will-keep-up-trade-links-says-defence-review
71. Wong, Catherine. ‘China Blasts Nato with British Aircraft Carrier “Heading to South China Sea”’. South China Morning Post. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3116146/china-blasts-nato-british-aircraft-carrier- heading-south-china
72. Xiaolin, Duan - Yitong, Liu. ‘The Rise and Fall of China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy’. 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/the-rise-and-fall-of-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomacy/
73. Xie, Kawala. ‘“Dangerous Political Show”: Beijing Slams Taiwan Visit by Britain’s Liz Truss’. South China Morning Post. 2023. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3220895/beijing-slams-taiwan-visit-britains-liz- truss-dangerous-political-show-designed-provoke-tensions
74. Zheng, Sarah. ‘“Much Misperception”: China’s Ambassador to UK Urges “Candid Dialogue” to Repair Trust | South China Morning Post’. 2021. Accessed 22 June 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3150559/much-misperception-chinas- ambassador-uk-urges-candid-dialogue