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Analysis of Gulf Arab States-China Political and Economic Relations from the Perspective of Neoclassical Realism

Yıl 2026, Sayı: 15, 319 - 346, 15.02.2026
https://doi.org/10.56720/mevzu.1819349
https://izlik.org/JA59FB68BA

Öz

This study examines the factors that have enabled the rapprochement between the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) and the People’s Republic of China (China) in recent years. The GCC, a traditional ally of the West in general and the United States (US) in particular at the global level, has in recent years been on a path of rapprochement with China that could lead to a crisis in its relations with the US, a development that international policy researchers find difficult to explain within the current global order. Therefore, this situation, which marks important ruptures in global, local and regional politics, has brought to the surface an important problematic that needs to be resolved. In this context, this study, which claims that the deepening relations between the parties despite the US can be analyzed with a multilevel approach, seeks to answer the question “Why and how has the GCC been able to develop its relations with China, which has emer-ged as an important player in the world in general and in the Middle East in particular?”. In this framework, neoclassical realism, which offers a multi-level framework of analysis, will theoretically guide the study, while the process tracing method will be used to understand the political, economic and defense dimensions of the parties’ rapprochement preferences.

Kaynakça

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Körfez Arap Ülkeleri-Çin Siyasi ve Ekonomik İlişkilerinin Neoklasik Realizm Perspektifinden Analizi

Yıl 2026, Sayı: 15, 319 - 346, 15.02.2026
https://doi.org/10.56720/mevzu.1819349
https://izlik.org/JA59FB68BA

Öz

Bu çalışma, son yıllarda Körfez İşbirliği Konseyi (KİK) ülkeleri ile Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti (Çin) arasında yaşanan yakınlaşmayı mümkün kılan faktör-leri incelemektedir. Küresel düzeyde genelde Batı’nın, özelde ise Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin (ABD) geleneksel müttefiki olan KİK ülkelerinin son yıllarda ABD ile ilişkilerini krize sürükleyebilecek ölçüde Çin ile yakınlaşma yoluna girmeleri uluslararası politika araştırmacılarının mevcut küresel düzen içerisinde açıklamakta zorlandığı bir gelişme oldu. Dolayısıyla küresel, yerel ve bölgesel siyasette önemli kırılmalara işaret eden bu durum çözümlenmesi gereken önemli bir sorunsalı gün yüzüne çıkardı. Bu bağlamda ABD’ye rağmen taraflar arasında derinleşen ilişkilerin çok düzeyli bir yaklaşımla çözümlenebileceği iddiasında olan bu çalışma “KİK, genel olarak dünyada, özel ola-rak Ortadoğu’da önemli bir oyuncu olarak yükselen Çin ile ilişkilerini neden ve nasıl geliştirebildi?” sorusuna yanıt aramaktadır. Bu çerçevede çok düzeyli bir analiz çerçevesi sunan neoklasik realizm, çalışmaya teorik olarak rehberlik ederken, tarafların birbirlerine yakınlaşma tercihlerinin siyasi, ekonomik ve savunma boyutlarını anlamak için süreç izleme yöntemi kullanılacaktır.

Kaynakça

  • Acharya, Amitav. The End of American World Order. Cambridge Malden, MA: Polity, 2014.
  • Aizhu, Chen. “China 2022 Crude Oil Imports Fall for Second Year despite Q4 Pickup”. Reuters (2023), blm. Commodities. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-dec-crude-oil-imports-3rd-highest- yr-2022-imports-down-09-2023-01-13/
  • Akkas, E. - Altiparmak, S. O. “The Reshaping Oil and Arms Trade between the United States and GCC: Is the Theory of Complex Interdependen-ce Still Prevailing?” Journal of Asian and African Studies 57/7 (2021), 1430- 1445. https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096211058880
  • Al Shayji, Abdullah K. “The GCC‐U.S. Relationship: A GCC Perspective”. Middle East Policy 21/3 (Eylül 2014), 60- 70. https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12082
  • Al-Madhaji, Muhammad. “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Ambitions: US Appre-hensions and China’s Allure | Wilson Center”. 13 Aralık 2023. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/saudi-arabias-nuclear- ambitions-us-apprehensions-and-chinas-allure
  • Alnassar, Anas. “Security Factors behind the Decline in the US-Gulf States Relations”. Open Journal of Political Science 14/01 (2024), 14-27. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojps.2024.141002
  • Alshareef, S. “The Gulf’s shifting geoeconomy and China’s structural power: From the petrodollar to the petroyuan?” Competition & Change 27/2 (2022), 380-401. https://doi.org/10.1177/10245294221095222
  • Al‐Tamimi, Naser. “Asia-GCC Relations: Growing Interdependence”. Analysis No. 179. ISPI (blog), 2013. https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/asia-gcc-relations-growing-interdependence-8025
  • Anadolu Agency. “Iran responsible for Aramco attack, says Saudi official” (22 Eylül 2019). https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-security/iran-responsible-for-aramco-attack-says-saudi- official/26714
  • Ardemagni, Eleonora. “The GCC in the Global Power Cycle: The Reform-Security Nexus”. Atlantic Council (blog), 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-gcc-in-the-global- power-cycle-the-reform-security-nexus/
  • Ardıç, Nurullah. “Understanding the ‘Arab Spring’: Justice, Dignity, Reli-gion and International Politics”. Afro Eurasian Studies 1/1 (Haziran 2012), 8-52.
  • Borrell, Josep. “How to Revive Multilateralism in a Multipolar World? | EEAS”. 2021. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/how-revive-multilateralism-multipolar-world_en
  • Chaziza, Mordechai. “China–Qatar Strategic Partnership and the Realiza-tion of One Belt, One Road Initiative”. China Report 56/1 (02/2020b), 78-102. https://doi.org/10.1177/0009445519895612
  • Chaziza, Mordechai. China’s Middle East Diplomacy: The Belt and Road Strate-gic Partnership. Liverpool: Liverpool University Press, 2020a. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv333kv1v
  • Checkel, Jeffrey T. “Process Tracing”. Process tracing. ed. A. Klotz - D. Pra-kash. 114-127. Qualitative Methods in International Relations: A Plura-list Guide. New York: Palgrave McMillan, 2008.
  • Chen, Junhua vd. “Evolution of China’s Interaction with Middle Eastern Countries under the Belt and Road Initiative”. ed. Masoud Behzadifar. PLOS ONE 18/11 (09 Kasım 2023), e0293426. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293426
  • Cheng, Joseph Y. S. “China’s Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council States: Multilevel Diplomacy in a Divided Arab World”. China Review 16/1 (2016), 35-64.
  • Davidson, Christopher M. The Persian Gulf and Pacific Asia: From Indifference to Interdependence. London: Columbia University Press, 2010.
  • Defence Security Asia. “Saudi Arabia Expands Collection of Chinese-Made Drones with WL-10B Acquisition”. Defence Security Asia (blog), 13 Şu-bat 2024. https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/saudi-drone-china/
  • Doğan, Soner. “21. Yüzyilda Yükselen Güç: Çi̇n, İpek Yolu Projesi̇ ve Orta-doğu’daki̇ Etki̇si̇”. Asya Araştırmaları Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 4/1 (Haziran 2020), 51-64.
  • Ehteshami, Anoushiravan - Yukiko Miyagi (ed.). The Emerging Middle East: East Asia Nexus. London: Routledge, 2015.
  • Finel, B.I. “Black Box or Pandora’s Box: State Level Variables and Progres-sivity in Realist Research Programs”. Security Studies 11/2 (01 Aralık 2001), 187-227. https://doi.org/10.1080/714005331
  • Fulton, Jonathan. “Systemic Change and Regional Orders: Asian Responses to a Gulf in Transition”. The International Spectator 57/4 (02 Ekim 2022), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2022.2107843
  • Gause, F. Gregory. “Should We Stay or Should We Go? The United States and the Middle East”. Survival 61/5 (03 Eylül 2019), 7-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2019.1662114
  • Ghaffar, Mahmood Muhammad Abdul. “Strategic Development of Sino-GCC Relations: Visions of Arabian Gulf Economic Development and the Belt and Road Initiative”. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 12/4 (02 Ekim 2018), 517-532. https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2018.1562595
  • Gulf Times. “Qatar, China Agree on ‘Strategic Partnership’”. Gulf Times. 04 Kasım 2014. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.gulf-times.com/story/414942/qatar-china-agree-on-strategic-partnership
  • Hashem, Ebrahim. “The GCC countries and China: An exponentially growing partnership in a rapidly changing world order”. China and Eurasia. Routledge, 2021.
  • Holland, Steve - Gamal, Rania El. “Trump Says He Does Not Want War af-ter Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities”. Reuters (17 Eylül 2019), blm. World. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/trump-says-he-does-not-want- war-after-attack-on-saudi-oil-facilities-idUSKBN1W10X6/
  • Inbar, Prof Efraim. “Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East”. Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (blog), 26 Temmuz 2016. https://besacenter.org/implications-us-disengagement-middle-east/
  • İstikbal, Deniz. “Rejimin Meşrutiyeti ve Enerji Güvenliği: Çin Komünist Partisinin Enerji Politikaları”. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi 3/1 (30 Nisan 2019), 49-68. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.513987
  • Johnson, Robert H. “The Persian Gulf in U.S. Strategy: A Skeptical View”. International Security 14/1 (1989), 122- 160. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538767
  • Karlin, Mara - Wittes, Tamara Cofman. “America’s Middle East Purgatory”. Foreign Affairs 98/1 (11 Aralık 2018). https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-12-11/americas-middle-east-purgatory
  • Khan, Mohd. “The US policy towards the Persian gulf: Continuity and change”. Strategic Analysis 25 (01 Mayıs 2001), 197-213. https://doi.org/10.1080/09700160108458951
  • Kitchen, Nicholas. “Systemic Pressures and Domestic Ideas: A Neoclassical Realist Model of Grand Strategy Formation”. Review of International Studies 36/1 (Ocak 2010), 117-143. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210509990532
  • Kuo, Kaiser. “China’s 40-Year History of Economic Transformation”. World Economic Forum. 2025. Erişim 12 Aralık 2025. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/06/how-china-got-rich-40-year-history-of-economic- transformation/
  • Leonard, Mark. “The Post-American Middle East”. ECFR. 19 Haziran 2023. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://ecfr.eu/article/the-post-american-middle-east/
  • Lobell, Steven. “Threat assessment, the state, and foreign policy: A neoc-lassical realist model”, 42-74. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511811869.002
  • Lokhande, Sumedh Anil. “China’s One Belt One Road Initiative and the Gulf Pearl chain”. China Daily. 2017. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2017beltandroad/2017- 06/05/content_29618549.htm
  • Lons, Camille vd. “China’s Great Game in the Middle East – European Co-uncil on Foreign Relations”. ECFR (blog), 21 Ekim 2019. https://ecfr.eu/publication/china_great_game_middle_east/
  • Magid, Aaron - Barhouma, Mohammad. “New Political and Security Chal-lenges for Jordan and Gulf States After U.S. Withdrawal from Afgha-nistan”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 2021. Erişim 06 Ka- sım 2025. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2021/09/new-political-and-security-challenges-for- jordan-and-gulf-states-after-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan?lang=en
  • Niblock, Tim. Asia-Gulf Economic Relations in the 21st Century: The Local to Global Transformation. Berlin: Gerlach Press., 2013. https://www.academia.edu/109341758/Asia_Gulf_Economic_Relations_in_the_21st_Century_The_Local_to _Global_Transformation
  • Ningthoujam, Alvite. “The Middle East: An Emerging Market for Chinese Arms Exports”. 2021. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/the-middle-east-an-emerging-market-for-chinese-arms-exports/
  • Pollack, Kenneth M. “U.S. Policy toward a Turbulent Middle East”. Broo-kings (blog), 2015. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/u-s-policy-toward-a-turbulent-middle-east/
  • Quinn, Adam. “Kenneth Waltz, Adam Smith and the Limits of Science: Hard choices for neoclassical realism”. International Politics 50 (01 Mart 2013). https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2013.5
  • Rakipoğlu, Mehmet. Dış Politikada Korunma (Hedging) Stratejisi Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Suudi Arabistan’ın ABD, Çin ve Rusya İlişkileri. Konya: Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2023.
  • Rathbun, Brian. “A Rose By Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Logical and Necessary Extension of Structural Realism”. Security Stu-dies - 17 (22 Mayıs 2008), 294-321. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410802098917
  • Reuters. “China Dec Crude Imports up 2.6 Pct at 11.56 Mln t”. Reuters. 09 Ağustos 2007. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.reuters.com/article/economy/china-dec-crude-imports-up-26-pct-at-1156-mln-t- idUSBJB000136/
  • Rose, Gideon. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”. World Politics 51/1 (1998), 144-172.
  • Rynning, Sten. “Shaping Military Doctrine in France: Decisionmakers between International Power and Domestic Interests”. Security Studies 11 (01 Aralık 2001), 85-116. https://doi.org/10.1080/714866728
  • Salem, Mostafa vd. “UAE suspends multi-billion dollar weapons deal in sign of growing frustration with US- China showdown”. 2021. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/14/middleeast/uae-weapons- deal-washington-china-intl/index.html
  • Sawafi, Mohammed Khalfan. “Why the Gulf Arab States Root for a Multi-polar World Order?” Futureuae. 2022. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://futureuae.com/en-US/Mainpage/Item/7300/why-the-gulf-arab-states-root- for-a-multipolar-world-order
  • Schweller, Randall. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing”. International Security 29/2 (2004), 159-201.
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  • Strobel, Warren P. vd. “Saudi Arabia, With China’s Help, Expands Its Nuc-lear Program”. 2020. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-with-chinas-help-expands-its-nuclear-program- 11596575671
  • Tabatabai, Ariane M. vd. Iran’s Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts (27 Eylül 2021). https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA444-2.html
  • Taliaferro, Jeffrey. “Security Seeking Under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited”. International Security 25 (01 Ocak 2001), 128-161. https://doi.org/10.1162/016228800560543
  • Taliaferro, Jeffrey W vd. “Introduction: Neoclassical realism, the state, and foreign policy”. Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy. 1-41, S. E. Lobell, N. M. Ripsman, J. W. Taliaferro, (Ed). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
  • Tang, Frang. “China meets Gulf oil bloc with sights set on free-trade agre-ement and energy security | South China Morning Post”. 2012. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china- economy/article/3163121/china-meets-gulf-oil-bloc-sights-set-free-trade-agreement-and
  • Tessman, Brock. “System Structure and State Strategy: Adding Hedging to the Menu”. Security Studies 21 (01 Nisan 2012), 192-231. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2012.679203
  • The Economist. “Why the oil price is falling”. 2014. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.economist.com/the- economist-explains/2014/12/08/why-the-oil-price-is-falling
  • Tirziu, Aleksandra Gadzala. “China’s Strategic Evolution in the Middle East: From Oil to Security”, 04 Temmuz 2024. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-middle-east-security/
  • UNDP. China in Numbers (2023). Issue Brief. Issue Brief (Mart 2024). https://www.undp.org/china/publications/china-numbers-2023
  • Uygur, Hakkı. “The Meaning of Iran’s Membership in the Shanghai Coope-ration Organization - İRAM Center | Center for Iranian Studies in An-kara”. 2023. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://iramcenter.org/en/the-meaning- of-irans-membership-in-the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-_en-2398
  • Üçağaç, Ahmet. “İngiliz Hâkimiyeti ile Amerikan Nüfuzu Arasındaki Dö-nemde Körfez’deki Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksinin Analizi (1971-2003)”. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 14/1 (28 Mart 2025), 521-539. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1618037
  • World Bank. World Bank Open Data. 2024. Erişim 12 Aralık 2025. https://data.worldbank.org
  • Xinhua. “China Focus: China, Kuwait agree to establish strategic partners-hip”. 10 Temmuz 2018. Erişim 07 Kasım 2025. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/10/c_137312795.htm
  • Xinhua. “China, Oman issue joint statement on establishment of strategic partnership”. 26 Mayıs 2018. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/26/c_137206872.htm
  • Yaari, Ehud. “China’s Middle East Policy: Speak Softly and Wave a Large Purse | The Washington Institute”. 2019. Erişim 06 Kasım 2025. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/chinas-middle-east-policy- speak-softly-and-wave-large-purse
  • Yom, Sean. “US Foreign Policy in the Middle East: The Logic of Hegemonic Retreat”. Global Policy 11/1 (Şubat 2020), 75-83. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12777
  • Zenko, Micah. “US Military Policy in the Middle East | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank”. Research Paper, Chatham House: The Royal Institute of International Affairs (blog), 2018. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2018/10/us-military-policy-middle-east
  • “General Administration of Customs People’s Republic of China”, ts. http://stats.customs.gov.cn/indexEn
  • Aljazeera. “Why did the Houthis attack the UAE? Everything you need to know” (31 Ocak 2022). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/31/explainer-a-simple-guide-to-the-uae-houthi-escalation
Toplam 72 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uluslararası İlişkiler (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ahmet Üçağaç 0000-0002-1731-2946

Gönderilme Tarihi 7 Kasım 2025
Kabul Tarihi 22 Ocak 2026
Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Şubat 2026
DOI https://doi.org/10.56720/mevzu.1819349
IZ https://izlik.org/JA59FB68BA
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2026 Sayı: 15

Kaynak Göster

ISNAD Üçağaç, Ahmet. “Körfez Arap Ülkeleri-Çin Siyasi ve Ekonomik İlişkilerinin Neoklasik Realizm Perspektifinden Analizi”. Mevzu – Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 15 (01 Şubat 2026): 319-346. https://doi.org/10.56720/mevzu.1819349.