Terör Saldırıları ve Savunma Harcamalarının Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Analizi

Yıl 2022, , 115 - 134, 27.04.2022

Kubilay Çağrı Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1049937

Cited By: 1

Öz

Devletlerin bütçelerinden savunma harcamalarına ayırdıkları payların bütçe içinde önemli bir ağırlığı vardır ve maliye politikasında bu harcama yayılım etkisi göstermektedir. Bu negatif dışsallık zaruri olabileceği gibi bazen güvenlik ikilemi orijinli de olabilmektedir. Bu çalışma kapsamında Türkiye’de önlenmesi zaruri olan terör saldırılarının ve savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiş ve bu sayede de terörün bütçe kanalıyla ekonomik tahribatı ortaya konulmuştur. Sınır testi analizine göre terör saldırılarında meydana gelen artışlar kısa dönemde büyümeyi negatif etkilerken uzun dönemde etkisizdir. Savunma harcamalarında meydana gelen pozitif şoklar(artışlar) ise, büyüme üzerinde hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde negatif etki yaratmaktadır. Türkiye’de terörün önlenmesi ve savunma harcamalarında meydana gelebilecek azalma buradan arttırılan kaynaklar ile ülkenin makro iktisadi çıktılarını arttırmaya yönelik politikalarında önemli bir rol üstlenebilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

savunma harcamaları, büyüme, bütçe, terör

Terrorist Attacks and The Effect of Defense Expenditure on Growth: Analysis of Turkey

Öz

The shares allocated by the states to defense expenditures from their budgets have a significant weight in the budget and this expenditure has a spillover effect in fiscal policy. While this negative externality may be necessary, it may sometimes be of security dilemma origin. Within the scope of this study, the effects of terrorist attacks and defense expenditures, which must be prevented in Turkey, on growth have been examined and thus, the economic damage of terrorism through the budget channel has been revealed. According to the boundary test analysis, while increases in terrorist attacks affect growth negatively in the short run, they are ineffective in the long run. Positive shocks (increases) in defense expenditures have a negative impact on growth both in the short and long term. The reduction in the prevention of terrorism and defense expenditures in Turkey will play an important role in the policies aimed at increasing the macroeconomic outputs of the country with the resources increased from there.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Defence Expenditure, Growth, Terror

Kaynakça

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