Heterogeneous Market Reactions of the G20 Stock Markets to the Hamas-Israel War

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 124, 21 - 35, 01.10.2025

Mine Aksoy , Mustafa Kemal Yılmaz , Övgü Kalkan Küçüksolak

https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1670587

Öz

This study aims to examine the impact of the Hamas-Israel conflict on G20 stock markets and gold prices by employing an event study approach. The results show a continuous decline of the stock markets in the following 10 working days in the aftermath of the attack. The country-wise findings indicate that there are no significant abnormal returns in any stock market on the first day following the conflict. For longer event windows (+3, +5, +10), China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, South Africa, Türkiye, and the US exhibited negative and significant cumulative abnormal returns (CARs), while Argentina and Russia had positive and significant CARs. The findings also reveal that gold preserves its role as a safe-heaven asset during high tension periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geopolitical conflicts , Gold , Hamas-Israel war , Stock market returns

Hamas-İsrail Savaşına Karşı G20 Borsalarının Heterojen Piyasa Tepkileri

Öz

Bu çalışma, Ekim 2023 tarihinde gerçekleşen Hamas-İsrail çatışmasının G20 ülkelerinin borsa endeksleri ve altın fiyatları üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada olay etüdü yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar Hamas saldırıları ardından gelen 10 iş günü boyunca G20 borsalarında sürekli bir düşüş yaşandığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ülke bazında sonuçlar, çatışmayı takip eden ilk gün herhangi bir borsa endeksinde anlamlı anormal getiri bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Daha uzun olay pencerelerinde (+3, +5, +10) Çin, Fransa, Almanya, Hindistan, İtalya, Meksika, Güney Afrika, Türkiye ve ABD borsalarında negatif ve anlamlı kümülatif anormal getiriler, Arjantin ve Rusya’da ise pozitif ve anlamlı kümülatif anormal getiriler tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca bulgular, altının çatışma döneminde geleneksel güvenli liman rolünü koruduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hamas-İsrail savaşı , Altın , Borsa Endeks Getirisi , Jeopolitik çatışmalar

Kaynakça

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