Öz
This study examines the impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on bank lending in Türkiye. Using loan microdata merged with firm registry and employment records, a panel dataset for 2017–2024 is constructed and a Difference-in-Differences approach is employed. Results show a clear divergence between public and private banks after the start of CBAM reporting. Public banks tighten cash lending more strongly, providing roughly 30% less liquidity to micro and small firms compared to private banks. The tightening is concentrated among SMEs, indicating heightened financial vulnerability and constraints on green investment. Overall, CBAM generates a credit-tightening channel in Türkiye, underscoring the need for targeted green financing programs to support small firms in the transition process.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Etik Beyan
Since the study was conducted by a single author, there is no conflict of interest.
Destekleyen Kurum
The author was supported by the 2211-A National PhD Scholarship Programs and the 2214-A International Research Fellowship Programme for PhD Students of the TÜBİTAK Scientist Support Programs Directorate (BİDEB).
Teşekkür
The author gratefully acknowledges the TÜBİTAK 2211-A and 2214-A grants that made this research possible.
Kaynakça
- Altavilla, C., Boucinha, M., Pagano, M., & Polo, A. (2024). Climate risk, bank lending and monetary policy (ECB Working Paper No. 2969). European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2969~0f4c56a156.en.pdf
- Özdemir Altınışık, E., & Yıldız, M. (2025). The Impact of Climate Resilience on Banks’ Financial Stability. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(Özel Sayı), 360-382. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1813728
- Avrupa Komisyonu: “Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council Establishing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,” Brüksel 14/07/2021 2021/0214(COD), Ek I, s.1-3
- Bertay, A. C., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (2015). Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical? Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 326–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.012
- BIS. (2022). The effects of climate change-related risks on banks (BCBS Working Paper No. 40). Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/wp40.pdf
- Brei, M., & Schclarek, A. (2013). Public bank lending in times of crisis. Journal of Financial Stability,9(4), 820–830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2013.01.002.
- Brei, M., & Schclarek, A. (2015). A theoretical model of bank lending: Does ownership matter in times of crisis? Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 298–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.029
- Campiglio, E., Dafermos, Y., Monnin, P., Ryan-Collins, J., Schotten, G., & Tanaka, M. (2018). Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators. Nature Climate Change, 8(6), 462–468. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0175-0
- Cull, R., & Martínez Pería, M. S. (2013). Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(12), 4861–4878. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.08.017
- De Haas, R., & Van Lelyveld, I. (2014). Multinational banks and the global financial crisis: Weathering the perfect storm? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 46(S1), 333–364. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12128
- De Haas, R., & Popov, A. (2019). Finance and decarbonisation: why equity markets do it better (Research Bulletin). (Available via ECB database)
- De Haas, R., & Popov, A. (2023). Finance and Green Growth, The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 650, February 2023, Pages 637–668, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac081
- European Commission. (2021). Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Brussels.
- Mehling, M. A., van Asselt, H., Das, K., Droege, S., & Verkuijl, C. (2019). Designing Border Carbon Adjustments for Enhanced Climate Action. American Journal of International Law, 113(3), 433–481. doi:10.1017/ajil.2019.22
- Tabachová, Z., Diem, C., Stangl, Y., et al. (2025). Combined climate stress testing of supply-chain networks and the financial system with nation-wide firm-level emission estimates. arXiv preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.10644
Öz
Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği’nin Sınırda Karbon Düzenleme Mekanizması’nın (SKDM/CBAM) Türkiye’de banka kredi tahsisleri üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Çalışmada kredi mikro verileri, firma kayıtları ve firma istihdam bilgilerinin birleştirilmesiyle 2017–2024 dönemini kapsayan panel veri seti oluşturulmuş ve farkların farkı (DiD) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, SKDM raporlama döneminin başlamasıyla birlikte kamu ve özel bankaların kredi davranışlarının belirgin biçimde ayrıştığını göstermektedir. Kamu bankaları özellikle nakdi kredilerde daha güçlü bir sıkılaşma uygulamış, küçük ve mikro ölçekli firmalara verilen nakdi kredi tutarı özel bankalara kıyasla yaklaşık yüzde 30 daha düşük gerçekleşmiştir. Sıkılaşmanın KOBİ’lerde yoğunlaşması, bu firmaların yeşil dönüşüm yatırımlarını finanse etme kapasitesini azaltmaktadır. Sonuçlar, SKDM’nin finansal kanal üzerinden geçiş risklerini artırdığını ve küçük işletmelerin finansmana erişimini destekleyecek hedefli yeşil kredi programlarının önem kazandığını göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Etik Beyan
Çalışma tek yazar tarafından yapıldığından çıkar çatışması söz konusu değildir.
Destekleyen Kurum
Yazar, TÜBİTAK Bilim İnsanı Destek Programları Başkanlığı (BİDEB) 2211-A Yurt İçi Lisansüstü Burs Programı ve 2214-A Yurt Dışı Doktora Sırası Araştırma Burs Programı kapsamında desteklenmiştir.
Teşekkür
Yazar, bu araştırmanın mümkün olmasını sağlayan TÜBİTAK 2211-A ve 2214-A desteklerini takdirle karşılamaktadır.
Kaynakça
- Altavilla, C., Boucinha, M., Pagano, M., & Polo, A. (2024). Climate risk, bank lending and monetary policy (ECB Working Paper No. 2969). European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2969~0f4c56a156.en.pdf
- Özdemir Altınışık, E., & Yıldız, M. (2025). The Impact of Climate Resilience on Banks’ Financial Stability. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(Özel Sayı), 360-382. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1813728
- Avrupa Komisyonu: “Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council Establishing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,” Brüksel 14/07/2021 2021/0214(COD), Ek I, s.1-3
- Bertay, A. C., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (2015). Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical? Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 326–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.012
- BIS. (2022). The effects of climate change-related risks on banks (BCBS Working Paper No. 40). Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/wp40.pdf
- Brei, M., & Schclarek, A. (2013). Public bank lending in times of crisis. Journal of Financial Stability,9(4), 820–830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2013.01.002.
- Brei, M., & Schclarek, A. (2015). A theoretical model of bank lending: Does ownership matter in times of crisis? Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 298–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.029
- Campiglio, E., Dafermos, Y., Monnin, P., Ryan-Collins, J., Schotten, G., & Tanaka, M. (2018). Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators. Nature Climate Change, 8(6), 462–468. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0175-0
- Cull, R., & Martínez Pería, M. S. (2013). Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(12), 4861–4878. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.08.017
- De Haas, R., & Van Lelyveld, I. (2014). Multinational banks and the global financial crisis: Weathering the perfect storm? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 46(S1), 333–364. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12128
- De Haas, R., & Popov, A. (2019). Finance and decarbonisation: why equity markets do it better (Research Bulletin). (Available via ECB database)
- De Haas, R., & Popov, A. (2023). Finance and Green Growth, The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 650, February 2023, Pages 637–668, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac081
- European Commission. (2021). Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Brussels.
- Mehling, M. A., van Asselt, H., Das, K., Droege, S., & Verkuijl, C. (2019). Designing Border Carbon Adjustments for Enhanced Climate Action. American Journal of International Law, 113(3), 433–481. doi:10.1017/ajil.2019.22
- Tabachová, Z., Diem, C., Stangl, Y., et al. (2025). Combined climate stress testing of supply-chain networks and the financial system with nation-wide firm-level emission estimates. arXiv preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.10644
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü, Çevre ve İklim Finansmanı |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 1 Aralık 2025 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 22 Aralık 2025 |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Aralık 2025 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2025 Sayı: Özel Sayı 3 |
Kaynak Göster
Maliye ve Finans Yazıları dergisinin kapsamını ekonomi, maliye, finans ve bankacılık alanlarındaki çalışmalar oluşturmaktadır.